Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,751–4,800

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4751	MISSION PINES NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.3%	71.9	B	NV	NORTH LAS VEGAS	240	—
4752	SHIELDS NURSING CENTER	2.3%	71.9	B	CA	EL CERRITO	45	—
4753	ADVANCED CENTER FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	2.3%	71.9	C	CT	NEW HAVEN	226	—
4754	COMPLETE CARE AT COURT HOUSE, LLC	2.3%	71.9	B	NJ	CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE	120	—
4755	DOVERWOOD VILLAGE	2.3%	71.9	C	OH	HAMILTON	99	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4756	Rancho Mesa Care Center	2.3%	71.8	B	CA	Alta Loma	59	RENEW HEALTH CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
4757	Easley Place-A Continuum of Care Community	2.3%	71.8	F	SC	Easley	60	—
4758	FOUNTAINBLEAU NURSING CENTER	2.3%	71.8	B	MO	FESTUS	116	—
4759	BRIA OF CHICAGO HEIGHTS	2.3%	71.8	C	IL	SOUTH CHICAGO HEIGHT	112	—
4760	COOK WILLOW HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER, INC.	2.3%	71.8	A	CT	PLYMOUTH	60	—
4761	Haymount Rehabilitation & Nursing Center, Inc.	2.3%	71.8	A	NC	Fayetteville	98	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
4762	LORIEN NURSING & REHAB CTR - ELKRIDGE	2.3%	71.8	C	MD	ELKRIDGE	70	—
4763	ROSE CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.3%	71.8	A	OR	PORTLAND	55	—
4764	PERRY COUNTY NURSING HOME	2.3%	71.8	C	TN	LINDEN	114	—
4765	Cedar Hill Health Care Center	2.3%	71.8	A	VT	Windsor	39	—
4766	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF SUMMERLIN	2.3%	71.8	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	38	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4767	AVIATA AT GREEN COVE SPRINGS	2.3%	71.8	B	FL	GREEN COVE SPRINGS	120	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
4768	St Anthony Health & Rehabilitation	2.3%	71.8	C	MN	ST ANTHONY	110	—
4769	IMPERIAL CREST HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.3%	71.8	A	CA	HAWTHORNE	105	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
4770	BEAR CREEK SENIOR LIVING	2.3%	71.8	B	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	45	—
4771	Boonespring Transitional Care Center, LLC	2.3%	71.8	B	KY	Union	143	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4772	ST MARTHA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	2.3%	71.8	B	PA	DOWNINGTOWN	120	—
4773	WILDWOOD HEALTH AND REHAB	2.3%	71.8	B	GA	TALKING ROCK	44	—
4774	Jamestown Nursing And Rehab, LLC	2.3%	71.8	D	AR	Rogers	140	—
4775	EVERGREEN CARE CENTER	2.3%	71.8	A	CA	FRESNO	49	AJC HEALTHCARE LLC
4776	THROGS NECK EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	2.3%	71.6	B	NY	BRONX	205	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
4777	West Oaks Senior Care & Rehab Center	2.3%	71.6	A	MI	Detroit	102	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4778	APPLE REHAB MYSTIC	2.3%	71.6	D	CT	MYSTIC	60	—
4779	LAKE CHARLES CARE CENTER	2.3%	71.6	A	LA	LAKE CHARLES	182	—
4780	COUNTRYSIDE ESTATES	2.3%	71.6	A	OK	WARNER	111	—
4781	DELTA SOUTH NURSING & REHABILITATION	2.3%	71.6	C	MO	SIKESTON	60	—
4782	BRIDGEWAY CARE AND REHAB CENTER AT BRIDGEWATER	2.3%	71.6	B	NJ	BRIDGEWATER	151	—
4783	VINEYARD COURT NURSING CENTER	2.3%	71.6	B	MS	COLUMBUS	55	BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4784	COURTYARD MANOR NURSE CARE CENTER & ASSISTED LIV	2.3%	71.6	A	LA	LAFAYETTE	92	—
4785	BENSON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	71.6	A	WA	KENT	91	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
4786	HOLIDAY MANOR CARE CENTER	2.3%	71.6	B	CA	CANOGA PARK	94	RENEW HEALTH CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
4787	PRAIRIE GROVE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.3%	71.6	A	AR	PRAIRIE GROVE	70	ROBERT V RYE LIV TR DTD 10042022
4788	Elderwood at Hamburg	2.3%	71.6	C	NY	HAMBURG	166	—
4789	Crestwood Nursing & Rehabilitation Center Inc	2.3%	71.6	A	RI	Warren	76	—
4790	HILL NURSING HOME, INC.	2.3%	71.6	A	OK	IDABEL	51	—
4791	Hillcrest Country Estates-Cottages	2.3%	71.6	A	NE	Papillion	48	HILLCREST HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4792	AVANTE AT INVERNESS INC	2.3%	71.6	A	FL	INVERNESS	104	AG HOLDINGS INC
4793	JUNIPER VILLAGE - THE SPEARLY CENTER	2.3%	71.6	D	CO	DENVER	135	JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
4794	HARRISON PAVILION CARE CENTER	2.3%	71.5	B	OH	CINCINNATI	84	—
4795	LINDEN WOODS VILLAGE	2.3%	71.5	A	MO	GLADSTONE	40	WSG LLC
4796	EDGEWOOD CENTRE (THE)	2.3%	71.5	B	NH	PORTSMOUTH	156	SJ HEALTHCARE CAPITAL LLC
4797	CLINTON MANOR LIVING CENTER	2.3%	71.5	A	IL	NEW BADEN	37	—
4798	FOX CHASE HEALTHCARE	2.3%	71.5	B	MD	SILVER SPRING	87	—
4799	AVALON CARE CENTER - HONOLULU, LLC	2.3%	71.5	A	HI	HONOLULU	108	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
4800	UNION CO HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER, INC	2.3%	71.5	A	MS	NEW ALBANY	60	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC

Showing 4,751–4,800 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.