Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,701–4,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4701	WRIGHTS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.1	C	FL	SEMINOLE	60	—
4702	Pomeroy Living Rochester Skilled Rehabilitation	2.4%	72.1	C	MI	Rochester Hills	182	—
4703	OLYMPIA TRANSITIONAL CARE AND REHABILITATION	2.4%	72.1	B	WA	OLYMPIA	113	—
4704	MAIN STREET TERRACE CARE CENTER	2.4%	72.1	B	OH	LANCASTER	50	—
4705	Jolley Acres Healthcare Center	2.4%	72.1	A	SC	Orangeburg	60	PALMETTO HEALTH CARE LLC
4706	LAUREL MANOR HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.1	B	NJ	STRATFORD	106	—
4707	Westview Acres Care Center	2.4%	72.1	A	IA	Leon	46	STEGOTEK INC
4708	INFINITY PARK POST-ACUTE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.1	F	KS	OVERLAND PARK	120	—
4709	AVIATA AT ENGLEWOOD	2.4%	72.1	D	FL	ENGLEWOOD	120	—
4710	KYAKAMEENA CARE CENTER	2.4%	72.1	A	CA	BERKELEY	60	—
4711	Williamsburg Health & Rehabilitation Center	2.4%	72.1	A	KY	Williamsburg	125	SEKY HOLDING CO
4712	PARKSIDE VILLA	2.4%	72.1	B	OH	MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS	178	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
4713	AUTUMN BREEZE HEALTH AND REHAB	2.4%	72.1	B	GA	MARIETTA	109	—
4714	ROSCOE REGIONAL REHAB & RESIDENTIAL H C F	2.4%	72.1	B	NY	ROSCOE	85	—
4715	LAKE MONTGOMERY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.1	A	FL	LAKE CITY	95	FL HC OPCO LLC
4716	GREENWOOD NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	72.0	A	MA	WAKEFIELD	36	—
4717	Gladwin Pines Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.3%	72.0	B	MI	Gladwin	84	—
4718	Grancare Nursing Center	2.3%	72.0	A	WI	Green Bay	64	—
4719	THE GARDENS AND GUARDIAN	2.3%	72.0	B	LA	LAKE CHARLES	60	—
4720	ORCHARDS OF EAST LIVERPOOL, THE	2.3%	72.0	B	OH	EAST LIVERPOOL	50	ORCHARDS FAMILY MANAGEMENT LLC
4721	SMITHVILLE WESTERN CARE CENTER	2.3%	72.0	C	OH	WOOSTER	127	—
4722	WILLIAMSPORT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	72.0	C	MD	WILLIAMSPORT	121	—
4723	ALICEVILLE MANOR NURSING HOME	2.3%	72.0	B	AL	ALICEVILLE	100	TRINTIY MANAGEMENT INC
4724	AVENUE AT NORTH RIDGEVILLE	2.3%	72.0	C	OH	NORTH RIDGEVILLE	103	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
4725	Liberty Commons Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.3%	72.0	C	NC	Whiteville	107	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
4726	Legacy Square	2.3%	72.0	A	NE	Henderson	40	—
4727	AVAMERE TRANSITIONAL CARE AT SUNNYSIDE	2.3%	72.0	A	OR	SALEM	88	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
4728	SAUGUS CENTER	2.3%	72.0	C	MA	SAUGUS	80	—
4729	RIVER CHASE VILLAGE	2.3%	72.0	A	MS	GAUTIER	60	SENTRYCARE INC
4730	BARRON CARE AND REHABILITATION	2.3%	72.0	B	WI	BARRON	50	—
4731	WHITTIER NURSING AND WELLNESS CENTER, INC	2.3%	72.0	B	CA	WHITTIER	36	GREAT NECK MANAGEMENT INC
4732	MANCHESTER HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.3%	72.0	D	CA	LOS ANGELES	49	—
4733	KING DAVID NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	72.0	B	MD	BALTIMORE	100	4260 GROUP LLC
4734	FOUNTAIN VIEW REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC	2.3%	72.0	A	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	90	MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4735	MADISON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	72.0	A	FL	MADISON	60	SEAM TRUST
4736	GARDENA CONVALESCENT CENTER	2.3%	72.0	C	CA	GARDENA	74	—
4737	DUNBAR VILLAGE TERRACE	2.3%	72.0	B	MS	BAY SAINT LOUIS	60	SENTRYCARE INC
4738	REGENCY HERITAGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	72.0	B	NJ	SOMERSET	265	—
4739	ORCHARD VILLA	2.3%	72.0	B	OH	OREGON	136	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
4740	PALM GARDEN OF SUN CITY	2.3%	72.0	B	FL	SUN CITY CENTER	132	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4741	Terrace Glen Village	2.3%	71.9	A	IA	Marion	40	WSG LLC
4742	TWIN MAPLES HEALTHCARE, INC	2.3%	71.9	B	CT	DURHAM	44	—
4743	GREENFIELD CARE CENTER OF FULLERTON, LLC	2.3%	71.9	B	CA	FULLERTON	99	—
4744	Riverview Health and Rehab Center North	2.3%	71.9	B	MI	Detroit	180	DRSN ASSOCIATES LLC
4745	SUNSET NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	2.3%	71.9	D	NY	BOONVILLE	120	—
4746	SCIOTO POINTE	2.3%	71.9	A	OH	COLUMBUS	99	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
4747	Mt. Sterling Health & Rehab, LLC	2.3%	71.9	B	KY	Mount Sterling	144	—
4748	Highland Care Center of Redlands	2.3%	71.9	B	CA	Redlands	80	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
4749	Coldspring Transitional Care Center	2.3%	71.9	B	KY	Cold Spring	143	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
4750	ISLES OF BOYNTON NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.3%	71.9	D	FL	BOYNTON BEACH	180	PALM BEACH HEALTH PARTNERS LLC

Showing 4,701–4,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.