Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,051–5,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5051	GREENBRIAR NURSING CENTER	2.1%	70.1	A	MS	DIBERVILLE	103	—
5052	Covenant Village Care Center	2.1%	70.1	B	OH	CINCINNATI	107	CENTRAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS INC
5053	MADISON POINTE CARE CENTER	2.1%	70.1	B	FL	NEW PORT RICHEY	119	FL SNF TRUST I
5054	CONWAY LAKES HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	70.1	A	FL	ORLANDO	120	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
5055	ALOIS ALZHEIMER'S CARE CENTER	2.1%	70.1	C	OH	CINCINNATI	93	CENTRAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS INC
5056	ROYAL MEADOW VIEW CENTER	2.1%	70.1	C	MA	NORTH READING	113	—
5057	GOOD SAMARITAN NURSING HOME OPERATOR, LLC	2.1%	70.1	A	MD	BALTIMORE	146	CARLYN ALEXANDRA ATTMAN 2005 TRUST
5058	Bowling Green Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.1%	70.0	C	KY	Bowling Green	66	—
5059	MILL MANOR CARE CENTER	2.1%	70.0	A	OH	VERMILION	33	—
5060	BROOKLYN GARDENS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	70.0	B	NY	BROOKLYN	240	—
5061	Broad Creek Care Center	2.1%	70.0	B	SC	Hilton Head Island	25	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5062	SERENITY HILL NURSING CENTER	2.1%	70.0	A	MA	WRENTHAM	44	—
5063	Pines Rehab & Health Center	2.1%	70.0	A	VT	Lyndonville	60	FRANCIS E CHENEY JR ESTATE
5064	RIVERVIEW AT THE PARK CARE AND REHABILITATION CENT	2.1%	70.0	A	MO	SAINTE GENEVIEVE	120	—
5065	ASPIRE AT RIDGE HAVEN	2.1%	70.0	C	FL	NEW PORT RICHEY	120	ASP FL LLC
5066	The Gardens of Taylor Glen Retirement Community	2.1%	70.0	A	NC	Concord	24	BAPTIST RETIREMENT HOMES OF NORTH CAROLINA INCORPORATED
5067	CEDAR HAVEN HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.1%	70.0	D	PA	LEBANON	324	—
5068	Ontario Healthcare Center	2.1%	70.0	C	CA	Ontario	59	CAMBRIDGE HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
5069	CHESTERWOOD ATC	2.1%	70.0	B	OH	WEST CHESTER	125	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
5070	SHARON HEALTH CARE PINES	2.1%	70.0	F	IL	PEORIA	116	—
5071	BERKSHIRE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	70.0	C	NY	WEST BABYLON	175	—
5072	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT MEMORIAL BRIDGE	2.1%	69.9	D	NJ	PENNS GROVE	161	—
5073	CEDARVIEW CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.9	B	OH	LEBANON	83	—
5074	PARK PLACE REHABILITATION AND SKILLED CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.9	F	MA	HYDE PARK	53	—
5075	TENNOVA NEWPORT CONVALESCENT CENTER	2.1%	69.9	A	TN	NEWPORT	56	—
5076	COUNTRY CLUB RET CENTER I I I	2.1%	69.9	A	OH	ASHTABULA	73	HOLLAND GROUP II LTD
5077	CAROLTON CHRONIC & CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL INC	2.1%	69.9	C	CT	FAIRFIELD	170	—
5078	HARRIS HILL NURSING FACILITY, L L C	2.1%	69.9	C	NY	WILLIAMSVILLE	192	VESTRA SPV1 LLC
5079	CLOVE LAKES HEALTH CARE AND REHAB CENTER, INC	2.1%	69.9	C	NY	STATEN ISLAND	576	—
5080	KINDRED HOSPITAL BREA D/P SNF	2.1%	69.9	B	CA	BREA	38	KNIGHT HEALTH LLC
5081	DEL AMO GARDENS CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.9	C	CA	TORRANCE	94	—
5082	DARDANELLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER,INC	2.1%	69.9	D	AR	DARDANELLE	110	—
5083	SOUTHERN HEALTH AND REHAB OF VERNON	2.1%	69.9	A	AL	VERNON	158	—
5084	VAN BUREN HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	69.9	A	AR	VAN BUREN	140	ROBERT V RYE LIV TR DTD 10042022
5085	LORIEN HEALTH SYSTEMS MT AIRY	2.1%	69.9	A	MD	MOUNT AIRY	62	MARYLAND HEALTH ENTERPRISES INC
5086	Wharton Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.1%	69.8	D	TX	Wharton	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
5087	BURTON HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.8	C	OH	BURTON	90	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
5088	ALLEGIANT WELLNESS AND REHAB	2.1%	69.8	A	TX	CROWLEY	0	—
5089	CENTRE POINTE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	2.1%	69.8	A	FL	TALLAHASSEE	140	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
5090	CHRISTIAN CARE CENTER OF BOLIVAR, LLC	2.1%	69.8	B	TN	BOLIVAR	67	—
5091	PACIFIC VILLA, INC	2.1%	69.8	B	CA	LONG BEACH	95	—
5092	BOULDER CREEK POST ACUTE	2.1%	69.8	B	CA	POWAY	149	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
5093	Four Seasons Nursing Center of Westland	2.1%	69.8	B	MI	Westland	180	—
5094	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE FOREST LAKE	2.1%	69.8	A	FL	APOPKA	222	SEAM TRUST
5095	PLEASANT VALLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.8	C	OK	MUSKOGEE	101	—
5096	PINE FOREST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.1%	69.8	B	MS	JACKSON	120	—
5097	FUTURE CARE ANNAPOLIS	2.1%	69.8	—	MD	ANNAPOLIS	—	CARLYN ALEXANDRA ATTMAN 2005 TRUST
5098	ABINGDON HEALTH CARE LLC	2.1%	69.8	B	VA	ABINGDON	120	DJ PETRINE LLC
5099	THE CHING VILLAS	2.1%	69.8	C	HI	HONOLULU	163	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
5100	PALM GARDEN OF ORLANDO	2.1%	69.8	B	FL	ORLANDO	132	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC

Showing 5,051–5,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.