Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,101–5,150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5101	Applewood Nursing Center, Inc	2.1%	69.8	B	MI	Woodhaven	150	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
5102	King Manor Care and Rehabilitation Center	2.1%	69.8	D	NJ	NEPTUNE	120	—
5103	EDMONSON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	69.7	C	KY	Brownsville	74	ENCORE INVESTORS LLC
5104	NEW CARLTON REHAB AND NURSING CENTER, L L C	2.1%	69.7	C	NY	BROOKLYN	148	—
5105	COUNTRY CLUB CENTER V, INC	2.1%	69.7	A	OH	DELAWARE	50	HOLLAND GROUP II LTD
5106	SANCTUARY POINTE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.1%	69.7	A	OH	CINCINNATI	124	CONCEPT REHAB INC
5107	OCEAN GARDENS CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.7	C	NY	ARVERNE	280	—
5108	CAVALIER HEALTHCARE OF ENGLAND	2.1%	69.7	B	AR	ENGLAND	70	—
5109	ST FRANCIS REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	2.1%	69.7	C	MA	WORCESTER	137	WELLINGTON HEALTHCARE LLC
5110	SHORE POINTE CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.7	D	NJ	EATONTOWN	178	—
5111	Lynwood Manor Healthcare Center	2.1%	69.7	C	MI	Adrian	84	—
5112	Holiday Retirement Home Inc	2.1%	69.7	B	RI	Manville	170	—
5113	BRIDGEWAY CARE AND REHAB CENTER AT HILLSBOROUGH	2.1%	69.7	A	NJ	HILLSBOROUGH	126	—
5114	MT BAKER CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.7	A	WA	BELLINGHAM	70	NIGHTINGALE HEALTHCARE LLC
5115	MONTCLAIR MANOR CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.7	B	CA	MONTCLAIR	59	—
5116	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE ZEPHYRHILLS	2.1%	69.7	A	FL	ZEPHYRHILLS	113	SEAM TRUST
5117	ORCHARD REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.1%	69.7	B	AL	HAYNEVILLE	72	—
5118	PRUITTHEALTH - WARNER ROBINS LLC	2.1%	69.7	A	GA	WARNER ROBINS	66	HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
5119	Good Shepherd Health and Rehabilitation	2.1%	69.7	C	KY	Phelps	118	—
5120	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE WATERMAN	2.1%	69.6	A	FL	TAVARES	120	SEAM TRUST
5121	CENTER AT EDEN HILL, LLC	2.1%	69.6	A	DE	DOVER	80	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
5122	Lillington Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.1%	69.6	C	NC	Lillington	129	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
5123	Regency at Canton	2.1%	69.6	B	MI	Canton	141	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
5124	PALATINE NURSING HOME	2.1%	69.6	B	NY	PALATINE BRIDGE	70	—
5125	VILLA MARIA HEALTH AND REHAB CTR	2.1%	69.6	A	WI	HURLEY	70	—
5126	MONTROSE SPRINGS SKILLED NURSING & WELLNESS CENTER	2.1%	69.6	D	CA	MONTROSE	109	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
5127	THE WIN POST-ACUTE	2.1%	69.6	B	CA	SANTA CLARA	133	COVENANT CARE LLC
5128	WILLOW CREEK POST ACUTE	2.1%	69.6	A	OR	MADRAS	20	AIDAN HEALTH SERVICES INC
5129	ALPINE TERRACE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.1%	69.6	C	TX	KERRVILLE	60	—
5130	GLADEVIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.1%	69.6	B	CT	OLD SAYBROOK	132	—
5131	ROSE HAVEN RETREAT	2.1%	69.6	D	TX	ATLANTA	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5132	PARAMOUNT CONVALESCENT HOSP.	2.1%	69.6	B	CA	PARAMOUNT	59	—
5133	Karen Acres Care Center	2.1%	69.6	A	IA	Urbandale	35	—
5134	DESOTO HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.1%	69.6	A	MS	SOUTHAVEN	120	—
5135	LEGACY POST ACUTE CARE	2.0%	69.5	A	CA	MARTINEZ	96	—
5136	WESTPARK HEALTHCARE CAMPUS	2.0%	69.5	A	OH	CLEVELAND	99	BHP MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
5137	MILFORD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.0%	69.5	A	CT	MILFORD	120	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
5138	Trinity Hill Care Center	2.0%	69.5	B	CT	HARTFORD	134	GLOBAL WORLD INVESTORS
5139	Hillcrest Raleigh at Crabtree Valley	2.0%	69.5	A	NC	Raleigh	134	—
5140	LAUREL SQUARE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.0%	69.5	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	87	NATIONWIDE HEALTHCARE SERVICES
5141	MEADOWBROOK AT BLACK RIVER FALLS	2.0%	69.5	C	WI	BLACK RIVER FALLS	45	—
5142	Cedar Haven Operations Holding LLC Valley View Hea	2.0%	69.5	D	RI	Woonsocket	185	—
5143	BLUE RIDGE CARE CENTER LLC	2.0%	69.5	A	GA	DALLAS	182	AZ 22 TR
5144	Coast Care Convalescent Center	2.0%	69.5	B	CA	BALDWIN PARK	48	—
5145	Langley Post Acute	2.0%	69.5	B	VA	HAMPTON	70	GEORGE S MITCHELL JR RVOC TR
5146	Henderson Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.0%	69.5	A	KY	Henderson	90	—
5147	AZALEA TRAIL NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.0%	69.5	A	TX	GRAND SALINE	0	—
5148	SANTE OF NORTH SCOTTSDALE	2.0%	69.5	B	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	72	MUNCH TOOKE LLC
5149	Rochester Rehabilitation And Living Center	2.0%	69.5	C	MN	ROCHESTER	56	VOLUNTEERS OF AMERICA NATIONAL SERVICES
5150	EAST BAY REHABILITATION CENTER	2.0%	69.5	A	FL	CLEARWATER	120	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC

Showing 5,101–5,150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.