Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,001–5,050

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5001	DELLRIDGE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.9	B	NJ	PARAMUS	106	—
5002	Alpine Nursing Home Inc	0.3%	66.9	A	RI	Coventry	60	—
5003	HEARTHSTONE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.9	D	TX	ROUND ROCK	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5004	ELDERWOOD AT LANCASTER	0.3%	66.9	C	NY	LANCASTER	96	—
5005	Bellarose Nursing And Rehab	0.3%	66.9	A	NC	Garner	100	—
5006	MARQUETTE	0.3%	66.9	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	57	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
5007	THE WINDSOR PLACE	0.3%	66.9	B	MS	COLUMBUS	140	—
5008	IDYLWOOD CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	A	CA	SUNNYVALE	185	—
5009	Village Health Care at The Glen	0.3%	66.9	B	LA	Shreveport	126	—
5010	West Side House LTC Facility	0.3%	66.9	A	MA	WORCESTER	91	ESSEX GROUP INCORPORATED
5011	TRANSCENDENT HEALTHCARE OF BOONVILLE	0.3%	66.9	F	IN	BOONVILLE	102	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5012	LEROY VILLAGE GREEN RESIDENTIAL HEALTH C F, INC	0.3%	66.9	A	NY	LEROY	140	—
5013	BEACON RIDGE	0.3%	66.9	C	OK	SAPULPA	69	RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
5014	The Citadel at Saint Joseph Village	0.3%	66.9	C	IL	FREEPORT	124	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
5015	FALLS VILLAGE SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.9	B	OH	CUYAHOGA FALLS	108	VRC MANAGEMENT INC
5016	ELDERWOOD AT WHEATFIELD	0.3%	66.9	B	NY	NIAGARA FALLS	123	—
5017	WARR ACRES NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.9	C	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	103	LEP HOLDINGS LLC
5018	VANTAGE AT HAMPDEN LLC	0.3%	66.9	B	MA	HAMPDEN	100	—
5019	J. MICHAEL MORROW MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.3%	66.9	A	LA	ARNAUDVILLE	175	—
5020	BRIDGE VIEW NURSING HOME	0.3%	66.9	C	NY	WHITESTONE	200	—
5021	CONTINUING CARE AT WIND CREST	0.3%	66.9	A	CO	HIGHLANDS RANCH	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
5022	DEERFIELD CARE CENTER, LLC	0.3%	66.9	A	WI	NEW RICHMOND	50	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
5023	The Springs of Mt Vista	0.3%	66.9	B	AR	HARRISON	154	BLACK RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
5024	PEABODY RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.3%	66.9	F	IN	NORTH MANCHESTER	192	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
5025	CHEROKEE COUNTY NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.9	B	OK	TAHLEQUAH	110	—
5026	HATHAWAY MANOR EXTENDED CARE	0.3%	66.9	B	MA	NEW BEDFORD	142	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
5027	MAGNOLIA CREEK SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.3%	66.9	C	OK	ALTUS	158	BRIDGES ESOP INC
5028	AVIATA AT GRAND OAKS	0.3%	66.9	F	FL	PALM COAST	120	—
5029	OTTERBEIN GAHANNA	0.3%	66.9	A	OH	GAHANNA	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
5030	CEDARBROOK SENIOR CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.9	A	PA	ALLENTOWN	670	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
5031	LADY OF THE OAKS RETIREMENT MANOR	0.3%	66.9	A	LA	LAFAYETTE	137	PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
5032	BRIDGEWATER HOME , INC.	0.3%	66.9	A	VA	BRIDGEWATER	127	—
5033	Skyland Care Center	0.3%	66.9	A	NC	Sylva	94	—
5034	La Bella of Caseyville	0.3%	66.9	D	IL	CASEYVILLE	150	—
5035	SUN VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	B	TX	HARLINGEN	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5036	YORK MANOR NURSING HOME	0.3%	66.9	B	OK	MUSKOGEE	60	—
5037	ST MONICA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	0.3%	66.9	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	180	—
5038	Mount Washington Care Center	0.3%	66.9	C	OH	CINCINNATI	129	NURSING CARE MANAGEMENT OF AMERICA
5039	CLARK COUNTY REHABILITATION & LIVING CENTER	0.3%	66.9	A	WI	OWEN	172	—
5040	BLUESTEM VILLAGE	0.3%	66.9	—	CO	LA JUNTA	56	—
5041	THE BLOSSOMS AT NEWPORT REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.9	B	AR	NEWPORT	120	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
5042	Laurel Park Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.3%	66.9	B	NC	Elizabeth City	108	—
5043	RIVER OAKS CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	—	TX	WICHITA FALLS	56	—
5044	The Cardinal at North Hills	0.3%	66.9	C	NC	Raleigh	15	—
5045	VIA CHRISTI VILLAGE MANHATTAN, INC	0.3%	66.9	B	KS	MANHATTAN	93	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
5046	WHITE HOUSE HEALTH CARE INC	0.3%	66.9	A	TN	WHITE HOUSE	84	—
5047	WHEELER NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.9	C	TX	WHEELER	0	LLANO ESTACADO HEALTHCARE LLC
5048	North Ridge Health And Rehab	0.3%	66.9	D	MN	NEW HOPE	320	—
5049	SMP HEALTH - ST CATHERINE NORTH	0.3%	66.9	A	ND	FARGO	125	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION HEALTH SYSTEM
5050	HERITAGE POINTE OF FORT WAYNE	0.3%	66.9	C	IN	FORT WAYNE	68	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL

Showing 5,001–5,050 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.