Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,101–5,150

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5101	Sunny View Nursing Home	0.3%	66.4	B	RI	Warwick	57	—
5102	LOGAN VALLEY MANOR	0.3%	66.4	—	NE	LYONS	65	—
5103	SEMINOLE CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.4	B	OK	SEMINOLE	106	OKLAHOMA ACQUISITIONS LLC
5104	Wesley Court Health Center	0.3%	66.4	A	TX	Abilene	0	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
5105	UPPER EAST SIDE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.4	A	NY	NEW YORK CITY	499	—
5106	SILOAM HEALTHCARE, LLC	0.3%	66.4	C	AR	SILOAM SPRINGS	120	—
5107	ALLEGRIA NURSING & REHAB CENTER OF PORT JEFFERSON	0.3%	66.4	B	NY	PORT JEFFERSON STATI	143	—
5108	ROYAL VISTA NURSING & REHAB	0.3%	66.4	—	WA	ELLENSBURG	67	—
5109	FOLTSBROOK CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.4	B	NY	HERKIMER	163	—
5110	COLONIAL PARK MANOR	0.3%	66.4	C	OK	OKEMAH	80	THE DONNA RENEE SIMMONS REVOCABLE TRUST DATED DECEMBER 17 2012
5111	CORE OF BEDFORD	0.3%	66.4	C	IN	BEDFORD	37	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5112	FORDHAM NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.4	A	NY	BRONX	240	—
5113	Crestpark Helena, LLC	0.3%	66.4	B	AR	HELENA	100	BELEW LLC
5114	RIVERSIDE SOUTH	0.3%	66.4	—	IA	AMES	59	—
5115	ROCKMART HEALTH	0.3%	66.4	B	GA	ROCKMART	73	CROSSROADS MEDICAL MANAGEMENT INC
5116	STONECROFT HEALTH CAMPUS	0.3%	66.4	C	IN	BLOOMINGTON	70	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
5117	ST JOSEPH MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.4	C	MO	SAINT JOSEPH	110	MO OP HOLDCO LLC
5118	BEACON REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.4	C	NY	ROCKAWAY PARK	120	—
5119	COLONNADES HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.4	A	VA	CHARLOTTESVILLE	34	WELLTOWER INC
5120	Good Samaritan - Saint Ansgar	0.3%	66.4	B	IA	Saint Ansgar	42	SANFORD
5121	WESTMINSTER POINT PLEASANT	0.3%	66.4	A	FL	BRADENTON	120	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
5122	ABBEY SENIOR HEALTH	0.3%	66.4	A	MO	O FALLON	55	—
5123	SIERRA VIEW HOMES	0.3%	66.4	C	CA	REEDLEY	59	—
5124	DAVIS PLACE	0.3%	66.4	C	CT	DANIELSON	190	—
5125	RAE-ANN WESTLAKE	0.3%	66.4	A	OH	WESTLAKE	130	RA OPCO LLC
5126	MASSACHUSETTS VETERANS HOME AT HOLYOKE	0.3%	66.4	A	MA	HOLYOKE	128	THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS
5127	ALARIS HEALTH AT BELGROVE	0.3%	66.4	D	NJ	KEARNY	120	—
5128	HIGHBRIDGE WOODYCREST CENTER	0.3%	66.4	A	NY	BRONX	90	—
5129	VAL VERDE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.4	D	TX	DEL RIO	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
5130	Cedar Haven Operations Holding LLC Valley View Hea	0.3%	66.4	D	RI	Woonsocket	185	—
5131	MAPLECREST NURSING AND HTA	0.3%	66.4	A	OH	STRUTHERS	55	—
5132	Aspen Hills Healthcare Center	0.3%	66.4	C	NJ	PEMBERTON	204	—
5133	SAINT ANNE HOME	0.3%	66.4	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	166	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5134	CLYDE E LASSEN STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.3%	66.4	A	FL	SAINT AUGUSTINE	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
5135	Aerius Health Center	0.3%	66.4	A	MI	Riverview	78	—
5136	SETON HEALTH AT SCHUYLER RIDGE RESIDENTIAL H C	0.3%	66.4	B	NY	CLIFTON PARK	120	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
5137	MANOR COURT OF PERU	0.3%	66.4	C	IL	PERU	130	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
5138	BETHEL LUTHERAN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.4	A	ND	WILLISTON	95	—
5139	(CLOSED) JOHN M REED HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	66.4	—	TN	LIMESTONE	63	—
5140	Lutheran Living Senior Campus	0.3%	66.4	C	IA	Muscatine	155	—
5141	Palmer Healthcare Center	0.3%	66.4	C	MA	PALMER	61	—
5142	DELMAR GARDENS ON THE GREEN	0.3%	66.4	C	MO	CHESTERFIELD	138	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
5143	DEVEREUX SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.4	C	MA	MARBLEHEAD	64	—
5144	LINDA MANOR EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	0.3%	66.4	B	MA	LEEDS	123	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
5145	Dr Ronald E McNair Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	66.4	B	SC	Lake City	88	—
5146	Briarcliffe Manor	0.3%	66.4	A	RI	Johnston	122	—
5147	ST GABRIEL'S COMMUNITY	0.3%	66.4	A	ND	BISMARCK	72	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
5148	The Shannon Gray Rehabilitation & Recovery Center	0.3%	66.4	A	NC	Jamestown	150	CANYON MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS INC
5149	The Grand Rehabilitation and Nursing at Barnwell	0.3%	66.4	F	NY	VALATIE	236	—
5150	GOOD SHEPHERD THE	0.3%	66.4	A	OH	ASHLAND	125	—

Showing 5,101–5,150 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.