Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,351–5,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5351	BEL AIR CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.3	A	OH	ALLIANCE	45	—
5352	Arroyo Grande Care Center	1.9%	68.3	A	CA	Arroyo Grande	99	COMPASS HEALTH INC
5353	DAVIS PLACE	1.9%	68.3	C	CT	DANIELSON	190	—
5354	BRIAN CENTER OF ALLEGHANY	1.9%	68.3	A	VA	LOW MOOR	89	MCCLINTIC OPERATIONS HOLDCO II LLC
5355	Medford Nursing Center	1.9%	68.3	A	SC	Darlington	88	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
5356	Hiawatha Care Center	1.9%	68.3	A	IA	Hiawatha	109	THOMAS F JUCKETTE MARITAL TRUST
5357	Good Samaritan Society Miller	1.9%	68.3	C	SD	MILLER	50	SANFORD
5358	VIEW HEIGHTS CONV HOSP	1.9%	68.3	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	163	—
5359	WINTERS HEALTHCARE RESIDENCE	1.9%	68.3	C	TX	WINTERS	48	—
5360	EVANSVILLE CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.2	A	MN	EVANSVILLE	27	—
5361	WHITTIER BRADFORD TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	1.9%	68.2	C	MA	BRADFORD	20	WHITTIER HEALTHCARE TRUST
5362	LOUISVILLE HEALTHCARE LLC	1.9%	68.2	A	MS	LOUISVILLE	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
5363	BROADWAY LIVING CENTER	1.9%	68.2	A	OK	LEXINGTON	101	—
5364	WINDSOR MEDICAL CENTER INC	1.9%	68.2	B	OH	NORTH CANTON	20	—
5365	Meadow View Nursing and Rehabilitation	1.9%	68.2	B	ID	Nampa	122	—
5366	INSPIRE BEHAVIORAL HEALTH	1.9%	68.2	C	CA	SAN JOSE	116	—
5367	CASA BONITA CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	1.9%	68.2	B	CA	SAN DIMAS	106	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
5368	WESTCHESTER GARDENS HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.9%	68.2	C	FL	CLEARWATER	120	JOHN B GOODMAN 2006 IRRV GRANTOR TR
5369	DOUGLAS MANOR	1.9%	68.2	A	CT	WINDHAM	90	—
5370	OAKDALE CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.2	F	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	70	—
5371	Heritage Care Center	1.9%	68.2	C	NE	Fairbury	100	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
5372	Rennes Health and Rehab Center-West	1.9%	68.2	B	WI	Peshtigo	90	—
5373	SOUTH HAMPTON NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.9%	68.2	A	AL	OWENS CROSS ROADS	81	PRESTON HEALTH SERVICES INC
5374	HERITAGE MANOR OF FERRIDAY	1.9%	68.2	D	LA	FERRIDAY	120	—
5375	KINGSLEY MANOR CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.2	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	51	—
5376	PLEASANTVIEW CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.2	A	OH	PARMA	162	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
5377	NORTERRE	1.9%	68.1	B	MO	LIBERTY	60	TUTERA INVESTMENTS LLC
5378	CROWN PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.9%	68.1	C	NY	CORTLAND	200	—
5379	TROY VICTORIAN REHABILITATION & NURSING CARE CNTR	1.9%	68.1	C	NY	TROY	120	—
5380	SAN RAFAEL HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER, LP	1.9%	68.1	D	CA	SAN RAFAEL	54	CORPORATE INTERFACE SERVICES LLC
5381	THE ROYAL HOME	1.9%	68.1	B	CA	EL CAJON	19	—
5382	Southport Center For Nursing & Rehabilitation Llc	1.9%	68.1	C	CT	SOUTHPORT	120	—
5383	SANTE OF CHANDLER	1.9%	68.1	A	AZ	CHANDLER	70	MUNCH TOOKE LLC
5384	AVON HEALTH CENTER	1.9%	68.1	A	CT	AVON	120	—
5385	AristaCare at Manchester	1.9%	68.1	C	NJ	MANCHESTER	165	—
5386	Scenic Manor	1.9%	68.1	B	IA	Iowa Falls	77	—
5387	BELMONT MANOR NURSING HOME, IN	1.9%	68.1	A	MA	BELMONT	156	—
5388	BRENTWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.1	A	CA	SANTA MONICA	59	NAHS HOLDING INC
5389	MAGNOLIA SENIOR CARE, LLC	1.9%	68.1	A	MS	JACKSON	60	TILLMAN SENIOR CARE LLC
5390	AVIATA AT THE SEA - POMPANO BEACH	1.9%	68.1	F	FL	POMPANO BEACH	83	—
5391	PREMIER GENESEE CENTER FOR NRSG AND REHABILITATION	1.9%	68.1	A	NY	BATAVIA	160	—
5392	FUTURE CARE CHERRYWOOD	1.9%	68.0	A	MD	REISTERSTOWN	151	ALVIN POWERS RESIDUARY TRUST FBO JEFFREY POWERS
5393	FUTURE CARE CANTON HARBOR	1.9%	68.0	B	MD	BALTIMORE	160	ALVIN POWERS RESIDUARY TRUST FBO JEFFREY POWERS
5394	Rennes Health and Rehab Center-De Pere	1.9%	68.0	B	WI	De Pere	137	—
5395	PARK VILLAGE HEALTH CARE CENTER INC	1.9%	68.0	A	OH	DOVER	90	—
5396	Crestwood Wellness and Recovery Center	1.9%	68.0	B	CA	REDDING	99	—
5397	Atlantic View Post Acute	1.9%	68.0	C	VA	NEWPORT NEWS	154	GEORGE S MITCHELL JR RVOC TR
5398	Puyallup Post Acute	1.9%	68.0	B	WA	PUYALLUP	96	—
5399	LAS VEGAS POST ACUTE & REHABILITATION	1.9%	68.0	C	NV	LAS VEGAS	79	MERIDIAN MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
5400	PELHAM PARKWAY NURSING CARE & REHAB FACILITY L L C	1.9%	68.0	C	NY	BRONX	200	—

Showing 5,351–5,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.