Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,301–5,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5301	SARTELL THERAPY SUITES	1.9%	68.6	D	MN	SARTELL	24	—
5302	JERSEY SHORE CENTER	1.9%	68.6	B	NJ	EATONTOWN	158	—
5303	REST HAVEN-YORK	1.9%	68.6	A	PA	YORK	159	—
5304	Allen Oaks Nursing and Rehab Center	1.9%	68.6	C	LA	OAKDALE	91	—
5305	EVERGREEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.9%	68.6	B	GA	ROME	100	—
5306	MERIT HOUSE LLC	1.9%	68.5	B	OH	TOLEDO	99	—
5307	VANCREST OF PAYNE	1.9%	68.5	A	OH	PAYNE	40	—
5308	J. MICHAEL MORROW MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	1.9%	68.5	A	LA	ARNAUDVILLE	175	—
5309	AUTUMN WOODS HEALTH CAMPUS	1.9%	68.5	C	IN	NEW ALBANY	91	—
5310	PRUITTHEALTH - PENSACOLA, LLC	1.9%	68.5	A	FL	PENSACOLA	120	—
5311	CAREONE AT SOMERSET VALLEY	1.9%	68.5	C	NJ	BOUND BROOK	64	—
5312	Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation at T	1.9%	68.5	B	NY	Painted Post	120	ABSOLUT FACILITIES MANAGEMENT LLC
5313	COUNTRY CLUB RETIREMENT CENTER	1.9%	68.5	B	OH	MOUNT VERNON	76	HOLLAND GROUP II LTD
5314	FOUNTAINBLEAU LODGE	1.9%	68.5	B	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	33	—
5315	MONROE CITY MANOR CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.5	A	MO	MONROE CITY	60	—
5316	SEA VIEW HOSPITAL REHABILITATION CENTER AND HOME	1.9%	68.5	B	NY	STATEN ISLAND	304	NEW YORK CITY HEALTH AND HOSPITALS CORPORATION
5317	ALTOONA HEALTH & REHAB	1.9%	68.5	A	AL	ALTOONA	50	TRINTIY MANAGEMENT INC
5318	GOLDEN AGE OF WELSH, LLC	1.9%	68.5	C	LA	WELSH	114	—
5319	GREENHILL MANOR	1.9%	68.5	C	IN	FOWLER	64	—
5320	ATRIUM POST ACUTE CARE OF WAYNEVIEW	1.9%	68.4	D	NJ	WAYNE	170	KBWB OPERATIONS ATRIUM
5321	HAWTHORNE INN OF DANVILLE	1.9%	68.4	B	IL	DANVILLE	80	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
5322	Hickory Falls Health and Rehabilitation	1.9%	68.4	B	NC	Granite Falls	120	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
5323	Crestview Nursing and Rehabilitation	1.9%	68.4	C	IA	Webster City	70	—
5324	LORIEN BULLE ROCK	1.9%	68.4	C	MD	HAVRE DE GRACE	78	—
5325	LIVIA HEALTH AND SENIOR LIVING	1.9%	68.4	D	NJ	EAST HANOVER	86	—
5326	LIFE CARE CENTER OF OSAWATOMIE	1.9%	68.4	D	KS	OSAWATOMIE	110	—
5327	HAMMOND-HENRY DISTRICT HSP	1.9%	68.4	B	IL	GENESEO	38	—
5328	PRIDE TLC THERAPY AND LIVING CAMPUS	1.9%	68.4	B	WI	WESTON	25	—
5329	Bermuda Commons Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.9%	68.4	D	NC	Advance	117	LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
5330	QUAPAW CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	1.9%	68.4	A	AR	HOT SPRINGS	126	—
5331	Potomac Falls Health & Rehab Center	1.9%	68.4	B	VA	STERLING	150	DJ PETRINE LLC
5332	LANDMARK NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.9%	68.4	A	MS	BOONEVILLE	80	—
5333	John J Kane Regional Center-Ro	1.9%	68.4	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	240	—
5334	DEVONSHIRE OAKS NURSING CENTER	1.9%	68.4	B	CA	REDWOOD CITY	38	—
5335	Blackhawk Life Care Center	1.9%	68.3	B	IA	Lake View	45	—
5336	Tarboro Health and Rehabilitation LLC	1.9%	68.3	B	NC	Tarboro	118	—
5337	LOUISIANA EXTENDED CARE HOSPITAL OF LAFAYETTE	1.9%	68.3	C	LA	LAFAYETTE	28	—
5338	Solon Nursing Care Center	1.9%	68.3	A	IA	Solon	96	—
5339	CEDAR CROSSINGS	1.9%	68.3	C	OR	PORTLAND	89	SAPPHIRE HEALTHCARE SRVS
5340	MAYFLOWER PLACE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.9%	68.3	B	MA	WEST YARMOUTH	72	—
5341	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME	1.9%	68.3	D	MO	BRAYMER	83	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME DISTRICT
5342	GLEN OAKS NURSING CENTER	1.9%	68.3	A	MS	LUCEDALE	45	—
5343	CASA DE LAS CAMPANAS	1.9%	68.3	A	CA	SAN DIEGO	99	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
5344	The Canyons Post-Acute	1.9%	68.3	C	CA	Colton	160	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
5345	North Gate Health Care Facility	1.9%	68.3	B	NY	North Tonawanda	200	VESTRA SPV1 LLC
5346	GLENWOOD HEALTHCARE	1.9%	68.3	B	MO	SEYMOUR	60	—
5347	DIAMOND RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.9%	68.3	A	FL	LECANTO	142	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
5348	NORTHERN MANHATTAN REHABILITATION AND NURSING CTR	1.9%	68.3	B	NY	NEW YORK	320	—
5349	BAILEY CREEK HEALTH AND REHAB	1.9%	68.3	C	AR	TEXARKANA	74	RHC OPERATIONS INC
5350	MCCRITE PLAZA AT BRIARCLIFF SKILLED FACILITY	1.9%	68.3	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	56	—

Showing 5,301–5,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.