Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,401–5,450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5401	BUSHWICK CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE	1.9%	68.0	A	NY	BROOKLYN	225	—
5402	AVIATA AT BRENTWOOD	1.9%	68.0	C	FL	LECANTO	120	—
5403	KING DAVID CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.9%	68.0	A	NY	BROOKLYN	271	ALLURE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
5404	GREENVILLE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.9%	68.0	A	FL	GREENVILLE	51	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
5405	GLEN COVE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.9%	68.0	C	NY	GLEN COVE	154	ESTATE OF MAYER LAUFER
5406	BAYBERRY NURSING HOME	1.9%	68.0	A	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	60	—
5407	North Winds Living Center	1.9%	68.0	C	OK	Oklahoma City	29	—
5408	HAMPTON WOODS NURSING CENTER, INC	1.9%	68.0	A	OH	POLAND	70	—
5409	EAST NECK NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.9%	68.0	B	NY	WEST BABYLON	300	—
5410	CYPRESS CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.0	C	FL	WILDWOOD	180	FL MASTER OPCO HOLDCO LLC
5411	WESTRIDGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.9%	68.0	B	IN	TERRE HAUTE	66	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5412	PINE VALLEY COMMUNITY VILLAGE	1.9%	68.0	D	WI	RICHLAND CENTER	80	—
5413	PREMIER HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER OF LV, LP	1.9%	68.0	B	NV	LAS VEGAS	100	—
5414	PREFERRED CARE AT MERCER	1.9%	68.0	B	NJ	EWING	100	—
5415	CEDARS OF LEBANON CARE CENTER	1.9%	67.9	A	OH	LEBANON	45	—
5416	INDIAN RIVER CENTER	1.9%	67.9	B	FL	WEST MELBOURNE	179	LCE PARTNERS LLC
5417	BRIDGEWATER PARK HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.9%	67.9	A	FL	OCALA	120	TENDER LOVING CARE MANAGEMENT INC
5418	Four Corners Regional Care Center	1.9%	67.9	C	UT	Blanding	104	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
5419	VISTA REAL POST ACUTE	1.9%	67.9	A	CA	BEAUMONT	57	CHARIS TR DTD 12 22 2016
5420	Fair Haven of Forest City, LLC	1.9%	67.9	A	NC	Forest City	100	—
5421	St. John's Health Care Corporation	1.9%	67.9	D	NY	Rochester	455	—
5422	BELVEDERE CENTER, GENESIS HEALTHCARE, THE	1.9%	67.9	B	PA	CHESTER	150	—
5423	COLUMBINE WEST HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	1.9%	67.9	C	CO	FORT COLLINS	100	COLUMBINE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
5424	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT CROMWELL	1.9%	67.9	B	CT	CROMWELL	175	—
5425	PARK NURSING HOME	1.9%	67.9	C	NY	ROCKAWAY PARK	196	—
5426	Windsor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center of Alice	1.9%	67.9	F	TX	Alice	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
5427	Cornerstone Nsg & Rehab Center	1.9%	67.9	A	MN	BAGLEY	47	—
5428	WI VETERANS HOME-BOLAND HALL	1.9%	67.9	C	WI	UNION GROVE	158	STATE OF WISCONSIN
5429	MEADOWVIEW REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.9%	67.9	A	PA	WHITE MARSH	244	—
5430	WELLPARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.9%	67.9	C	TN	KNOXVILLE	32	—
5431	WESTBROOK PLACE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER.	1.8%	67.8	C	OH	WESTLAKE	140	—
5432	VILLA CREST NURSING AND RETIREMENT CENTER	1.8%	67.8	A	NH	MANCHESTER	126	ESNH LLC
5433	DELLRIDGE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.8	B	NJ	PARAMUS	106	—
5434	HAVILAND OPERATOR, LLC	1.8%	67.8	B	KS	HAVILAND	45	—
5435	COUNTRY ARCH CARE CENTER	1.8%	67.8	C	NJ	PITTSTOWN	130	—
5436	West Shore Post Acute	1.8%	67.8	B	CA	ALAMEDA	151	SAINT CABRINI HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
5437	LAMUN-LUSK-SANCHEZ TEXAS STATE VETERANS HOME	1.8%	67.8	A	TX	BIG SPRING	160	CARE INNS OF TEXAS TEMPLE LTD
5438	NEWARK MANOR NURSING HOME	1.8%	67.8	A	DE	NEWARK	67	—
5439	Clarence Nursing Home	1.8%	67.8	A	IA	Clarence	46	CLARENCE NURSING HOME INC
5440	SLIGO CREEK HEALTHCARE	1.8%	67.8	C	MD	TAKOMA PARK	102	—
5441	Dubuque Specialty Care	1.8%	67.8	C	IA	Dubuque	84	CARE INITIATIVES
5442	ROYAL BRAINTREE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.8	B	MA	BRAINTREE	204	—
5443	AVENUES AT SPRINGFIELD	1.8%	67.8	C	IL	SPRINGFIELD	65	—
5444	ENCORE AT TURF VALLEY	1.8%	67.8	B	MD	ELLICOTT CITY	91	—
5445	NEW YORK CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING	1.8%	67.8	A	NY	ASTORIA	280	—
5446	GATEWAY CARE AND RETIREMENT	1.8%	67.7	A	OR	PORTLAND	59	SAPPHIRE HEALTHCARE SRVS
5447	Martin Luther Care Center	1.8%	67.7	A	MN	BLOOMINGTON	137	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
5448	Harrison Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.8%	67.7	C	KY	Cynthiana	54	—
5449	MCCLAY SENIOR CARE	1.8%	67.7	A	MO	SAINT PETERS	60	—
5450	ASHLAND HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.8%	67.7	A	MS	ASHLAND	60	ORAND LP

Showing 5,401–5,450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.