Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,451–5,500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5451	AVENUES AT LITCHFIELD	1.8%	67.7	B	IL	LITCHFIELD	65	—
5452	GREATER EL MONTE COMMUNITY HOS	1.8%	67.7	A	CA	EL MONTE	13	AHMC INC
5453	BROOKHAVEN HEALTH CARE FACILITY L L C	1.8%	67.7	C	NY	EAST PATCHOGUE	160	VESTRA SPV1 LLC
5454	BEACON REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.8%	67.7	C	NY	ROCKAWAY PARK	120	—
5455	BAY VIEW REHABILITATION HOSPITAL, LLC	1.8%	67.7	B	CA	ALAMEDA	180	MERIDIAN MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
5456	COUNTRYSIDE HEALTH CENTER	1.8%	67.7	C	KS	TOPEKA	97	—
5457	Elderberry Health Care	1.8%	67.7	B	NC	Marshall	80	—
5458	EGLE NURSING HOME	1.8%	67.7	A	MD	LONACONING	66	—
5459	WASHINGTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.8%	67.7	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	94	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5460	Meadow Peak Rehabilitation	1.8%	67.7	B	UT	Taylorsville	75	MISSION HEALTH SERVICES
5461	CADIA REHABILITATION PIKE CREEK	1.8%	67.7	C	DE	WILMINGTON	177	LONG TERM CARE CORP
5462	Newport Post Acute	1.8%	67.7	C	VA	NEWPORT NEWS	60	—
5463	FOREST HILLS CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.6	C	OK	BROKEN ARROW	159	OKLAHOMA ACQUISITIONS LLC
5464	The Rivers Health & Rehabilitation Center of Gross	1.8%	67.6	A	MI	Grosse Pointe Woods	86	DRSN ASSOCIATES LLC
5465	Santa Rosa Care Center	1.8%	67.6	A	AZ	TUCSON	144	—
5466	CAPRICE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.8%	67.6	A	OH	NORTH LIMA	75	JCTH HOLDINGS INC
5467	Kindred Hospital East Greensboro	1.8%	67.6	A	NC	Greensboro	23	KNIGHT HEALTH LLC
5468	LAUREL PARK BEHAVIORAL HEALTH CENTER	1.8%	67.6	D	CA	POMONA	43	—
5469	REGEIS CARE CENTER	1.8%	67.6	B	NY	BRONX	236	—
5470	OASIS AT THE CONCH REPUBLIC NURSING AND REHAB	1.8%	67.6	D	FL	KEY WEST	120	—
5471	Manawa Com Nur CTR	1.8%	67.6	A	WI	Manawa	25	—
5472	CROWN HEIGHTS CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB	1.8%	67.6	B	NY	BROOKLYN	295	ALLURE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
5473	Aspen Hills Healthcare Center	1.8%	67.6	C	NJ	PEMBERTON	204	—
5474	MEADOWBROOK HEALTHCARE	1.8%	67.6	C	NY	PLATTSBURGH	287	—
5475	CONCORD CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.6	C	OH	SANDUSKY	50	—
5476	Glacier Hills	1.8%	67.6	B	MI	Ann Arbor	105	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
5477	Corning Specialty Care	1.8%	67.6	B	IA	Corning	40	CARE INITIATIVES
5478	OAK KNOLL SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.6	A	MO	FERGUSON	72	—
5479	POPLAR SPRINGS NURSING CTR, LLC	1.8%	67.6	A	MS	MERIDIAN	89	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
5480	CORTLAND PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.8%	67.6	C	NY	CORTLAND	120	—
5481	Arbor Manor Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	1.8%	67.6	B	MI	Spring Arbor	122	—
5482	OCEANSIDE SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.8%	67.6	B	NH	HAMPTON	117	—
5483	TRIBORO CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.8%	67.6	B	NY	BRONX	515	—
5484	KALAKAUA GARDENS	1.8%	67.5	C	HI	HONOLULU	49	—
5485	HAMILTON GROVE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION, LLC	1.8%	67.5	D	NJ	HAMILTON	218	—
5486	MELBOURNE TERRACE REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.5	A	FL	MELBOURNE	179	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
5487	RICHBORO REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.8%	67.5	B	PA	RICHBORO	82	GOLD PA TRUST
5488	Kindred Hospital - Louisville	1.8%	67.5	A	KY	Louisville	47	KNIGHT HEALTH LLC
5489	HOPE HEALTH AND REHAB	1.8%	67.5	A	WI	LOMIRA	38	—
5490	ROYAL SUITES HEALTH CARE & REHABILITATION	1.8%	67.5	C	NJ	GALLOWAY TOWNSHIP	186	—
5491	Greenfield Rehabilitation & Health Care Center	1.8%	67.5	B	IA	Greenfield	46	—
5492	DURGIN PINES	1.8%	67.5	C	ME	KITTERY	81	—
5493	VIERRA FALLS CHURCH	1.8%	67.5	D	VA	FALLS CHURCH	160	VIERRA COMMUNITIES LLC
5494	LECOM AT SNYDER MEMORIAL	1.8%	67.5	B	PA	MARIENVILLE	100	—
5495	The Pearl Nursing Center of Rochester	1.8%	67.5	C	NY	Rochester	120	—
5496	ELIZABETH SCOTT COMMUNITY	1.8%	67.5	A	OH	MAUMEE	60	—
5497	SPRINGS AT LAKE POINTE WOODS	1.8%	67.4	B	FL	SARASOTA	101	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
5498	HUDSON HILL CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING	1.8%	67.4	F	NY	YONKERS	315	—
5499	Nexus at Columbia	1.8%	67.4	C	IL	COLUMBIA	119	—
5500	FOREMOST AT SHARON LLC	1.8%	67.4	B	MA	SHARON	66	—

Showing 5,451–5,500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.