Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,501–5,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5501	THE GROVE AT VALHALLA REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	1.8%	67.4	B	NY	VALHALLA	160	—
5502	BOLIVAR MEDICAL CENTER LTC	1.8%	67.4	A	MS	CLEVELAND	35	—
5503	ARISTACARE AT CEDAR OAKS	1.8%	67.4	C	NJ	SOUTH PLAINFIELD	230	—
5504	ORANGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.8%	67.4	A	CT	ORANGE	60	—
5505	Whispering Pines Nursing & Rehab Center	1.8%	67.4	B	NC	Fayetteville	86	—
5506	SHIELDS RICHMOND NURSING CENTER	1.8%	67.4	B	CA	RICHMOND	84	—
5507	NOTTINGHAM HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.8%	67.4	A	KS	OLATHE	80	AXIOM CONSULTING LLC
5508	ROLLING HILLS CARE CENTER	1.8%	67.4	C	NJ	LEBANON	67	—
5509	FUTURE CARE SANDTOWN-WINCHESTER	1.8%	67.4	B	MD	BALTIMORE	148	FUTURE CARE HEALTH AND MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
5510	WORKMENS CIRCLE MULTICARE CENTER	1.8%	67.4	A	NY	BRONX	524	—
5511	MORNINGSIDE CARE CENTER	1.8%	67.4	F	IA	IDA GROVE	64	—
5512	GLEN ISLAND CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.8%	67.4	B	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	183	—
5513	VILLA VISTA ROYALE LLC	1.8%	67.4	A	OH	STEUBENVILLE	54	—
5514	Marcella Post Acute	1.8%	67.4	B	VA	HAMPTON	180	—
5515	GARDNER HEIGHTS HEALTH CARE CENTER, INC	1.8%	67.3	B	CT	SHELTON	130	—
5516	Apple Rehab Guilford	1.8%	67.3	A	CT	GUILFORD	90	—
5517	Pine Heights at Brattleboro Center for Nursing & R	1.8%	67.3	A	VT	Brattleboro	80	BNB HEALTH CARE FUNDS LLC
5518	Brooken Hill Health And Rehab, Llc	1.8%	67.3	A	AR	FORT SMITH	125	—
5519	MADO HEALTHCARE - UPTOWN	1.8%	67.3	F	IL	CHICAGO	132	—
5520	C M Tucker Jr Nursing Care Center Fewell and Stone	1.8%	67.3	B	SC	Columbia	252	SOUTH CAROLINA DEPT OF MENTAL HEALTH ACCOUNTING OFFICE
5521	LEXINGTON MANOR SENIOR CARE, LLC	1.8%	67.3	A	MS	LEXINGTON	60	TILLMAN SENIOR CARE LLC
5522	SAINT VINCENT HEALTHCARE	1.8%	67.3	A	CA	PASADENA	78	—
5523	ASPIRE AT EVANS	1.8%	67.3	D	FL	FORT MYERS	120	—
5524	The Willows at Harrodsburg	1.8%	67.3	C	KY	Harrodsburg	36	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
5525	MONTAGE HILLS	1.8%	67.3	B	CO	DENVER	45	—
5526	Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation at G	1.8%	67.3	C	NY	GASPORT	83	—
5527	Laredo West Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.8%	67.3	F	TX	Laredo	188	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
5528	APPLE REHAB UNCASVILLE	1.8%	67.3	F	CT	UNCASVILLE	130	—
5529	GARDEN GATE HEALTH CARE FACILITY	1.8%	67.3	C	NY	CHEEKTOWAGA	184	VESTRA SPV1 LLC
5530	GWYNEDD HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.3	B	PA	LANSDALE	181	—
5531	Mountain Manor of Paintsville	1.8%	67.3	A	KY	Paintsville	126	—
5532	SKY VIEW NURSING CENTER	1.8%	67.3	A	WI	HURLEY	33	—
5533	BUCKINGHAM VALLEY REHABILITATION AND NURSINGCENTER	1.8%	67.2	B	PA	BUCKINGHAM	130	GOLD PA TRUST
5534	White Oak Manor - Rock Hill	1.8%	67.2	A	SC	Rock Hill	136	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
5535	FUTURE CARE OLD COURT	1.8%	67.2	A	MD	RANDALLSTOWN	141	ALVIN POWERS RESIDUARY TRUST FBO JEFFREY POWERS
5536	LINCOLN PARK CARE CENTER	1.8%	67.2	C	NJ	LINCOLN PARK	547	—
5537	EMMANUEL CARE CENTER - TRAVIS	1.8%	67.2	A	CA	FAIRFIELD	—	—
5538	Belle Fountain Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	1.8%	67.2	A	MI	Riverview	91	—
5539	Sante Of Surprise	1.8%	67.2	A	AZ	SURPRISE	70	MUNCH TOOKE LLC
5540	Sierra Vista	1.8%	67.2	C	CA	Highland	116	—
5541	APPLE REHAB FARMINGTON VALLEY	1.8%	67.2	B	CT	PLAINVILLE	160	—
5542	Andrew Residence	1.8%	67.2	C	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	212	—
5543	BAY PATH AT DUXBURY NURSING & REHABILITATION CTR	1.8%	67.2	A	MA	DUXBURY	120	BANE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
5544	Morrell Nursing Center	1.8%	67.2	A	SC	Hartsville	154	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
5545	EUFAULA MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.2	D	OK	EUFAULA	100	—
5546	Autumn View Health Care Facility L L C	1.8%	67.1	B	NY	HAMBURG	230	VESTRA SPV1 LLC
5547	BRIARFIELD PLACE	1.8%	67.1	B	OH	BOARDMAN	58	EDM MANAGEMENT INC
5548	BORDERVIEW REHAB & LIVING CTR	1.8%	67.1	A	ME	VAN BUREN	27	—
5549	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT VINELAND	1.8%	67.1	C	NJ	VINELAND	190	—
5550	BRIA OF SMITHTON	1.8%	67.1	F	IL	SMITHTON	101	—

Showing 5,501–5,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.