Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,551–5,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5551	VANDERMAN PLACE	1.8%	67.1	B	CT	WILLIMANTIC	124	—
5552	CRYSTAL CARE CENTER OF MANSFIE	1.8%	67.1	A	OH	MANSFIELD	74	—
5553	SUNSHINE HEALTH & REHAB	1.8%	67.1	B	WA	SPOKANE	37	—
5554	LAKE MARIAM HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.1	B	FL	WINTER HAVEN	120	—
5555	FAIRVIEW HEALTHCARE RESIDENCE	1.8%	67.1	F	TX	FAIRFIELD	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5556	VIVO HEALTHCARE LAKELAND	1.8%	67.1	C	FL	LAKELAND	185	ASMSY LLC
5557	THE PINES AT CATSKILL CENTER FOR NURSING & REHAB	1.8%	67.1	C	NY	CATSKILL	136	—
5558	DOBSON PLAZA	1.8%	67.1	B	IL	EVANSTON	97	—
5559	Newcare	1.8%	67.1	A	WI	Crivitz	43	—
5560	JONESBORO REHAB & HCC	1.8%	67.0	D	IL	JONESBORO	77	—
5561	BEAUMONT REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.8%	67.0	F	IN	ANDERSON	200	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
5562	BENDERSON FAMILY SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.8%	67.0	A	FL	SARASOTA	45	—
5563	Ross Manor	1.8%	67.0	A	ME	BANGOR	103	FIRST ATLANTIC CORPORATION
5564	TRAILPOINT VILLAGE	1.8%	67.0	F	IN	SOUTH BEND	183	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5565	OHMAN FAMILY LIVING AT BRIAR	1.8%	67.0	A	OH	MIDDLEFIELD	96	—
5566	Hooper Care Center	1.8%	67.0	D	NE	Hooper	48	—
5567	PINNACLE MULTICARE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.8%	67.0	B	NY	BRONX	480	—
5568	ALARIS HEALTH AT WEST ORANGE	1.8%	67.0	F	NJ	WEST ORANGE	120	—
5569	SUPERIOR HEALTH & REHAB, LLC	1.8%	67.0	B	AR	CONWAY	118	—
5570	CARILLON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	67.0	C	NY	HUNTINGTON	315	—
5571	TORREY PINES POST ACUTE AND REHABILITATION	1.8%	67.0	C	NV	LAS VEGAS	95	MERIDIAN MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
5572	Wilber Care Center	1.8%	67.0	B	NE	Wilber	58	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
5573	MEADOWBROOK BEHAVIORAL HEALTH CENTER	1.8%	67.0	D	CA	LOS ANGELES	77	—
5574	Pine Creek Manor Skilled Nursing & Rehab Center	1.8%	67.0	B	MI	Wayne	49	—
5575	REGENCY AT NORTHPOINTE	1.8%	67.0	B	WA	SPOKANE	120	—
5576	NORTHRIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.8%	67.0	C	GA	COMMERCE	167	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5577	Linville Court At The Cascades Verdae	1.8%	67.0	A	SC	Greenville	44	MAXWELL GROUP INC
5578	FLOWER VILLA, INC	1.8%	67.0	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	41	—
5579	ANDERSON, THE	1.8%	67.0	C	OH	CINCINNATI	100	—
5580	Nassau Rehabilitation & Nursing Center	1.8%	66.9	C	NY	HEMPSTEAD	280	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
5581	NORWALK CARE CENTER	1.8%	66.9	C	CT	NORWALK	150	—
5582	Woonsocket Health Center	1.8%	66.9	B	RI	Woonsocket	150	—
5583	OAK GROVE RETIREMENT HOME	1.8%	66.9	C	MS	DUNCAN	60	—
5584	ST ANTHONY CARE CENTER	1.8%	66.9	B	CA	HAYWARD	30	—
5585	Brooklyn Community Estates	1.8%	66.9	A	IA	Brooklyn	50	—
5586	CENTENNIAL HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	66.9	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	180	—
5587	LAUREL MEADOWS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	1.8%	66.9	B	MO	SAINT CHARLES	103	—
5588	LORIEN MAYS CHAPEL	1.8%	66.9	A	MD	TIMONIUM	93	—
5589	REGENT PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	1.8%	66.9	A	KS	WICHITA	84	—
5590	VALLEY VIEW ESTATES HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.8%	66.9	F	MT	HAMILTON	98	—
5591	Rose Linn Care Center	1.8%	66.9	A	OR	WEST LINN	71	—
5592	LUXE AT JUPITER REHABILITATION CENTER (THE)	1.8%	66.9	F	FL	JUPITER	129	—
5593	Whittier Westborough Transitional Care Unit	1.8%	66.9	A	MA	WESTBOROUGH	19	WHITTIER HEALTHCARE TRUST
5594	AFFINITY SKILLED LIVING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	66.9	C	NY	OAKDALE	280	—
5595	THRIVE OF FOX VALLEY	1.7%	66.8	B	IL	AURORA	68	LOCKWOOD INVESTMENTS LLC
5596	WILTON MEADOWS HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.7%	66.8	C	CT	WILTON	148	—
5597	Carlyle House	1.7%	66.8	A	MA	FRAMINGHAM	55	—
5598	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING FAYETTE	1.7%	66.8	F	MO	FAYETTE	60	—
5599	Heritage Gardens Health Care Center	1.7%	66.8	A	CA	Loma Linda	110	COTTON FAMILY REVOCABLE TRUST
5600	SARDIS COMMUNITY NH	1.7%	66.8	A	MS	SARDIS	60	—

Showing 5,551–5,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.