Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,601–5,650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5601	ALARIS HEALTH AT BELGROVE	1.7%	66.8	D	NJ	KEARNY	120	—
5602	THE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER AT STADIUM PLACE	1.7%	66.8	B	MD	BALTIMORE	49	—
5603	WARREN PARK HEALTH & LIVING CTR	1.7%	66.8	C	IL	CHICAGO	127	—
5604	REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER AT EVERETT (THE)	1.7%	66.8	B	MA	EVERETT	183	—
5605	WEST CARROLL CARE CENTER, INC	1.7%	66.8	B	LA	OAK GROVE	80	—
5606	HERITAGE OF HUDSON	1.7%	66.8	B	OH	HUDSON	80	—
5607	GRACE POINTE CONT CARE SR CAMPUS, SKILLED NURSING	1.7%	66.8	A	CO	GREELEY	53	CONTINUUM HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
5608	PENDER MEMORIAL HOSP SNF	1.7%	66.8	—	NC	BURGAW	43	—
5609	LYNBROOK RESTORATIVE THERAPY AND NURSING	1.7%	66.8	B	NY	LYNBROOK	100	—
5610	THE CENTER AT CORDERA	1.7%	66.8	C	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	80	—
5611	BROOKSIDE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	1.7%	66.7	B	KS	OVERBROOK	60	JOYA LIVING & HEALTHCARE INC
5612	CULVER WEST HEALTH CENTER	1.7%	66.7	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	91	—
5613	TAMPA LAKES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	66.7	B	FL	LUTZ	179	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
5614	WORCESTER REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.7%	66.7	C	MA	WORCESTER	160	—
5615	Avamere Rehabilitation Of Hillsboro	1.7%	66.7	B	OR	HILLSBORO	87	—
5616	KINDRED HOSPITAL SOUTH FLORIDA HOLLYWOOD	1.7%	66.7	A	FL	HOLLYWOOD	30	KNIGHT HEALTH LLC
5617	SHILOH NURSING AND REHAB, LLC	1.7%	66.7	C	AR	SPRINGDALE	140	—
5618	CAMBRIDGE REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.7%	66.7	B	MA	CAMBRIDGE	83	ARB II HOLDINGS LLC
5619	ALGART HEALTH CARE	1.7%	66.7	A	OH	CLEVELAND	78	—
5620	Edenbrook of St Cloud	1.7%	66.7	B	MN	SAINT CLOUD	77	—
5621	TOWNE HOUSE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	1.7%	66.7	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	32	BHI SENIOR LIVING INC
5622	CLIFTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.7%	66.7	A	OH	CINCINNATI	142	I ROSEDALE IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5623	SIDNEY HEALTH CENTER EXTENDED CARE	1.7%	66.7	A	MT	SIDNEY	93	—
5624	EPIONE PAVILION	1.7%	66.7	—	WI	CUBA CITY	38	—
5625	HOUGHTON REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.7%	66.7	C	NY	HOUGHTON	100	—
5626	WALNUT PLACE	1.7%	66.7	D	TX	DALLAS	208	—
5627	HARLEM CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION, L L	1.7%	66.7	C	NY	NEW YORK	200	ALLURE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
5628	THE COMMONS AT TALL PINES	1.7%	66.7	D	ME	BELFAST	53	—
5629	Kingston Health Center of Perrysburg	1.7%	66.7	B	OH	PERRYSBURG	62	KINGSTON HEALTHCARE INC
5630	THE MEDICAL RESORT AT WOODLANDS	1.7%	66.7	C	TX	SPRING	90	—
5631	SKY VIEW REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER L L C	1.7%	66.7	B	NY	CROTON ON HUDSON	192	—
5632	SHARON CARE CENTER	1.7%	66.7	A	WA	CENTRALIA	42	NIGHTINGALE HEALTHCARE LLC
5633	BEAUMONT REHAB & SKILLED NURSING CTR - WESTBORO	1.7%	66.7	B	MA	WESTBOROUGH	152	CONTINUING CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
5634	Good Samaritan Society - Stillwater	1.7%	66.6	C	MN	STILLWATER	50	SANFORD
5635	Alameda Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	1.7%	66.6	A	NJ	PERTH AMBOY	250	—
5636	RAMONA REHABILITATION AND POST ACUTE CARE CENTER	1.7%	66.6	B	CA	HEMET	104	—
5637	ALCOTT REHABILITATION HOSPITAL	1.7%	66.6	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	121	—
5638	PORT CHARLOTTE REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	66.6	B	FL	PORT CHARLOTTE	152	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
5639	ABERJONA REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.7%	66.6	A	MA	WINCHESTER	123	BOSTON MASTER TENANT LLC
5640	Shaire Nursing Center	1.7%	66.6	A	NC	Lenoir	60	—
5641	Roubal Care and Rehabilitation Center	1.7%	66.6	A	MI	Stephenson	39	—
5642	ARISTACARE AT NORWOOD TERRACE	1.7%	66.6	A	NJ	PLAINFIELD	120	—
5643	SUSANNA WESLEY HEALTH CENTER	1.7%	66.6	B	FL	HIALEAH	120	HEALTHCARE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LLC
5644	HUNTERDON CARE CENTER LLC	1.7%	66.6	B	NJ	FLEMINGTON	185	—
5645	SAVANNAS PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	66.6	A	FL	PORT SAINT LUCIE	120	FL HC OPCO LLC
5646	FUTURE CARE CHESAPEAKE	1.7%	66.5	A	MD	ARNOLD	152	FUTURE CARE HEALTH AND MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
5647	WESTGATE HILLS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CTR	1.7%	66.5	C	PA	HAVERTOWN	110	—
5648	IVY HALL NURSING HOME	1.7%	66.5	C	TN	ELIZABETHTON	101	—
5649	LAKEWOOD HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	1.7%	66.5	B	AR	NORTH LITTLE ROCK	85	—
5650	Rennes Health and Rehab Center-Appleton	1.7%	66.5	A	WI	Appleton	88	—

Showing 5,601–5,650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.