Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,651–5,700

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5651	COOPERSTOWN CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.7%	66.5	B	NY	COOPERSTOWN	174	—
5652	UNIVERSITY VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	1.7%	66.5	A	OK	TULSA	80	—
5653	Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation at A	1.7%	66.5	A	NY	ALLEGANY	37	—
5654	NORTON COMMUNITY HOSPITAL SNF UNIT	1.7%	66.5	A	VA	NORTON	44	BALLAD HEALTH
5655	SOUTHERN SPRINGS HEALTHCARE FACILITY	1.7%	66.5	A	AL	UNION SPRINGS	123	—
5656	HOBOKEN UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER TCU	1.7%	66.5	B	NJ	HOBOKEN	15	—
5657	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT COUNTRY HOUSE	1.7%	66.5	A	DE	WILMINGTON	14	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
5658	Hilltop Health Care Center	1.7%	66.5	A	MN	WATKINS	50	TF MANAGEMENT LLC
5659	SILSBEE OAKS HEALTH CARE LLP	1.7%	66.5	C	TX	SILSBEE	160	—
5660	HEART OF GEORGIA NURSING HOME	1.7%	66.5	A	GA	EASTMAN	100	—
5661	ROBINSON TERRACE	1.7%	66.5	C	NY	STAMFORD	120	—
5662	ST JOSEPH REHAB & NURSING CARE CENTER	1.7%	66.5	C	MA	DORCHESTER	123	WELLINGTON HEALTHCARE LLC
5663	NOBLE HORIZONS	1.7%	66.4	F	CT	SALISBURY	91	—
5664	COUNTRY MEADOWS NURSING CENTER OF BETHLEHEM	1.7%	66.4	A	PA	BETHLEHEM	70	—
5665	ESTATES OF SPANISH LAKE, THE	1.7%	66.4	F	MO	SAINT LOUIS	150	—
5666	Stratford Pines Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.7%	66.4	A	MI	Midland	100	—
5667	HOLY CROSS REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS	1.7%	66.4	D	IN	SOUTH BEND	168	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5668	WHISPERING PINES REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.7%	66.4	B	CT	EAST HAVEN	90	—
5669	PARKLANDS CARE CENTER AND REHAB	1.7%	66.4	A	FL	GAINESVILLE	120	5H1 LLC
5670	HEMPSTEAD PARK NURSING HOME	1.7%	66.4	D	NY	HEMPSTEAD	251	—
5671	Benedictine Care Community	1.7%	66.4	C	MN	ADA	49	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
5672	BLUE HERON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.7%	66.4	C	FL	WESLEY CHAPEL	141	TENDER LOVING CARE MANAGEMENT INC
5673	Immanuel Campus Of Care	1.7%	66.3	B	AZ	PEORIA	228	—
5674	Briarwood Healthcare Center	1.7%	66.3	A	IA	Iowa City	62	—
5675	SANS SOUCI REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.7%	66.3	B	NY	YONKERS	120	—
5676	KIRBY PINES MANOR	1.7%	66.3	A	TN	MEMPHIS	120	—
5677	The Oaks at Battle Creek	1.7%	66.3	B	MI	Battle Creek	77	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
5678	Community Extended Care Hospital Of Montclair	1.7%	66.3	A	CA	Montclair	140	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
5679	Olympia Convalescent Hospital	1.7%	66.3	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	135	—
5680	ELDERWOOD AT WILLIAMSVILLE	1.7%	66.3	C	NY	WILLIAMSVILLE	200	—
5681	A GRACE SUB ACUTE & SKILLED CARE	1.7%	66.3	B	CA	SAN JOSE	166	—
5682	CHESTNUT PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.7%	66.3	C	NY	ONEONTA	80	—
5683	Oakhaven Nursing Center	1.7%	66.3	A	SC	Darlington	88	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
5684	SANTE OF MESA	1.7%	66.3	C	AZ	MESA	70	MUNCH TOOKE LLC
5685	PRAIRIE CITY REHAB & H C	1.7%	66.3	D	IL	PRAIRIE CITY	47	—
5686	The Emeralds at St Paul LLC	1.7%	66.3	B	MN	SAINT PAUL	100	—
5687	THE ROWLAND	1.7%	66.3	C	CA	COVINA	126	—
5688	Woodside Manor Nursing Home Inc	1.7%	66.3	A	NY	Rochester	44	—
5689	HERITAGE VILLAGE REHAB AND SKILLED NURSING INC.	1.7%	66.3	C	NY	GERRY	120	HERITAGE MINISTRIES CHARITABLE CARE NETWORK INC
5690	SUNRISE MANOR CTR FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.7%	66.3	B	NY	BAY SHORE	84	—
5691	Ridgmar Medical Lodge	1.7%	66.3	F	TX	Fort Worth	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5692	Glasgow State Nursing Facility	1.7%	66.3	A	KY	Glasgow	100	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
5693	OUACHITA HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	66.3	C	LA	MONROE	167	PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
5694	HERITAGE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	66.3	D	FL	NAPLES	97	—
5695	ASPIRUS CARE & REHAB-MEDFORD	1.7%	66.3	A	WI	MEDFORD	50	ASPIRUS INC
5696	OAK HILL HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.7%	66.3	C	FL	BROOKSVILLE	109	TENDER LOVING CARE MANAGEMENT INC
5697	NOTTINGHAM VILLAGE	1.7%	66.3	B	PA	NORTHUMBERLAND	121	—
5698	AUSTINWOODS REHAB HEALTH CARE	1.7%	66.3	B	OH	AUSTINTOWN	99	—
5699	COLONIAL GARDENS NURSING HOME	1.7%	66.3	A	CA	PICO RIVERA	99	—
5700	Gainesville Convalescent Center	1.7%	66.3	F	TX	Gainesville	0	COUNTY OF THROCKMORTON

Showing 5,651–5,700 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.