Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,701–5,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5701	Voorhees Pediatric Facility	1.7%	66.3	A	NJ	VOORHEES	122	MILLENNIUM CONSOLIDATED LLC
5702	THE WILLOWS AT RAMAPO REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	1.7%	66.3	B	NY	SUFFERN	203	—
5703	BREWSTER CONVALESCENT CENTER	1.7%	66.3	A	OH	BREWSTER	60	—
5704	THE MADISON HEALTH AND REHAB	1.7%	66.3	A	MS	MADISON	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
5705	WE CARE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	1.7%	66.3	A	CA	HAYWARD	28	—
5706	NORTH POINTE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.7%	66.2	A	MS	MERIDIAN	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
5707	BEACH GARDENS REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	1.7%	66.2	A	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	163	—
5708	GARDENS, THE	1.7%	66.2	A	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	45	—
5709	KENSINGTON AT ANNA MARIA	1.7%	66.2	A	OH	AURORA	99	NORTON BROS HOLDING COMPANY
5710	AVIATA AT SEMINOLE	1.7%	66.2	F	FL	SEMINOLE	120	—
5711	MCGUFFEY HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	66.2	B	AL	GADSDEN	209	—
5712	COLLEGE VISTA POST-ACUTE	1.7%	66.2	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	49	—
5713	SPINDLETOP HILL NURSING & REHAB CENTER	1.7%	66.2	C	TX	BEAUMONT	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5714	HILDEBRAND CARE CENTER	1.7%	66.2	A	CO	CANON CITY	75	—
5715	Avir at Graham	1.7%	66.2	A	TX	GRAHAM	0	COUNTY OF THROCKMORTON
5716	Milford Meadows Care Center	1.7%	66.2	A	NE	Milford	80	—
5717	FARWELL CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	66.2	D	TX	FARWELL	0	—
5718	Franklin County Rehab Center, LLC	1.7%	66.2	A	VT	St. Albans	64	THEORIA MEDICAL
5719	SUNNYSIDE CARE CENTER	1.7%	66.1	A	NY	EAST SYRACUSE	80	—
5720	MANNING GARDENS CARE CENTER, INC	1.7%	66.1	A	CA	FRESNO	59	—
5721	DEDHAM HEALTHCARE	1.7%	66.1	F	MA	DEDHAM	145	—
5722	Seaside Healthcare LLC	1.7%	66.1	A	ME	Portland	147	—
5723	Marquardt Memorial Manor	1.7%	66.1	D	WI	Watertown	140	ILLUMINUS INC
5724	Elcor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.7%	66.1	B	NY	Horseheads	305	—
5725	TALLASSEE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	1.7%	66.1	A	AL	TALLASSEE	111	JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
5726	TOLEDO HEALTHCARE	1.7%	66.1	B	OH	TOLEDO	110	—
5727	FOCUSED CARE AT CORPUS	1.7%	66.1	D	TX	CORPUS CHRISTI	94	—
5728	LUTHERAN CENTER AT POUGHKEEPSIE INC	1.7%	66.0	B	NY	POUGHKEEPSIE	160	—
5729	PARKVIEW CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	1.7%	66.0	C	NY	MASSAPEQUA	169	—
5730	MITCHELL-HOLLINGSWORTH NURSING & REHABILITATION	1.7%	66.0	A	AL	FLORENCE	222	—
5731	AVIATA AT GREENACRES	1.7%	66.0	F	FL	GREEN ACRES	120	—
5732	CARMEL HILLS CARE CENTER	1.7%	66.0	A	CA	MONTEREY	99	—
5733	Hazard Health and Rehabilitation Center	1.7%	66.0	B	KY	Hazard	200	SEKY HOLDING CO
5734	GOOD SAMARITAN HEALTH CARE CTR	1.7%	66.0	B	WA	YAKIMA	105	—
5735	TWIN CITY HEALTH CARE	1.7%	66.0	B	IN	GAS CITY	75	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5736	Vacaville Convalescent and Rehabilitation Center	1.7%	66.0	A	CA	Vacaville	120	—
5737	The Gardens Of Cedar Rapids	1.7%	66.0	A	IA	Cedar Rapids	40	—
5738	ASHLEY MEDICAL CENTER NURSING HOME	1.7%	66.0	A	ND	ASHLEY	31	—
5739	SHERIDAN MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	1.7%	66.0	A	MT	PLENTYWOOD	45	—
5740	ARISTACARE AT CHERRY HILL	1.7%	66.0	C	NJ	CHERRY HILL	140	—
5741	NORMANDY MANOR OF ROCKY RIVER	1.7%	66.0	C	OH	ROCKY RIVER	150	—
5742	Center For Extended Care at Amherst	1.7%	66.0	B	MA	AMHERST	134	—
5743	SAFIRE REHABILITATION OF SOUTHTOWN, L L C	1.7%	66.0	C	NY	BUFFALO	120	—
5744	Mill Valley Care Center	1.6%	65.9	A	IA	Bellevue	46	—
5745	ACHIEVE REHAB AND NURSING FACILITY	1.6%	65.9	C	NY	LIBERTY	140	—
5746	HIGH HOPE CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.9	A	LA	SULPHUR	101	—
5747	PREFERRED CARE AT HAMILTON	1.6%	65.9	D	NJ	HAMILTON SQUARE	126	—
5748	TOBACCO ROOT MOUNTAINS CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.9	A	MT	SHERIDAN	39	—
5749	Golden Crest Nursing Centre	1.6%	65.9	A	RI	North Providence	152	—
5750	RUSSELL PARK REHABILITATION & LIVING CENTER	1.6%	65.9	B	ME	LEWISTON	50	—

Showing 5,701–5,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.