Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,751–5,800

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5751	HERITAGE SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.2%	61.8	C	OK	TECUMSEH	100	BRIDGES ESOP INC
5752	RIVER TOWNE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	GA	COLUMBUS	210	GEORGIA PYRAMID VENTURE LLC
5753	OLD SOUTHWEST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	F	VA	ROANOKE	130	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5754	RIVER CHASE VILLAGE	0.2%	61.8	A	MS	GAUTIER	60	SENTRYCARE INC
5755	WATERS OF RUSHVILLE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	0.2%	61.8	D	IN	RUSHVILLE	98	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5756	CULVER WEST HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	91	—
5757	HERITAGE TRAILS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	TX	CLEBURNE	0	MAVERICK COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5758	WATERS OF BATESVILLE, THE	0.2%	61.8	D	IN	BATESVILLE	86	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5759	Edgewater, A Wesleylife Community	0.2%	61.8	A	IA	West Des Moines	40	WESLEYLIFE
5760	HICKORY MANOR	0.2%	61.8	D	MO	LICKING	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5761	CUMMING OPERATING COMPANY LLC	0.2%	61.8	A	GA	CUMMING	99	—
5762	CARILLON INC	0.2%	61.8	A	TX	LUBBOCK	100	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
5763	MEADOW PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CENTER L L C	0.2%	61.8	C	NY	FLUSHING	135	—
5764	CONTINUING CARE AT EAGLES TRACE	0.2%	61.8	B	TX	HOUSTON	0	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
5765	COUNTRY AIRE RETIREMENT CENTER	0.2%	61.8	F	MO	LEWISTOWN	60	DKDP MISSOURI LLC
5766	PALO PINTO NURSING CENTER	0.2%	61.8	D	TX	MINERAL WELLS	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
5767	FOREST HILLS CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	OK	BROKEN ARROW	159	OKLAHOMA ACQUISITIONS LLC
5768	IMPERIAL HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	A	CA	LA MIRADA	99	—
5769	ORLANDO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	FL	ORLANDO	391	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
5770	RIVERSIDE LANDING NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	D	OH	MCCONNELSVILLE	50	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS INC
5771	BEDFORD ALZHEIMER'S CARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	60	—
5772	Chowan River Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	61.8	A	NC	Edenton	130	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
5773	EDDY VILLAGE GREEN	0.2%	61.8	B	NY	COHOES	192	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
5774	HEARTLAND NURSING & REHAB	0.2%	61.8	C	IL	CASEY	81	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
5775	BROOKHAVEN REHAB & HEALTH CARE CENTER L L C	0.2%	61.8	B	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	298	—
5776	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT BERKELEY HEIGHTS	0.2%	61.8	D	NJ	BERKELEY HEIGHTS	130	MJH GROUP LLC
5777	TREUTLEN COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	A	GA	SOPERTON	50	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5778	HANOVER TERRACE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	D	NH	HANOVER	100	BEAR MOUNTAIN HEALTHCARE LLC
5779	CLARENDON NURSING HOME	0.2%	61.8	C	TX	CLARENDON	0	—
5780	RENAISSANCE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	NY	STAATSBURG	120	—
5781	EL REPOSO NURSING FACILITY	0.2%	61.8	A	AL	FLORENCE	60	—
5782	LEGACY NURSING AND REHABILITATION OF WINNSBORO	0.2%	61.8	F	LA	WINNSBORO	150	LEGACY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
5783	Mountain View Health Services	0.2%	61.8	F	UT	Ogden	155	—
5784	VALLE VISTA REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC	0.2%	61.8	B	MT	LEWISTOWN	101	MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5785	SOURIS VALLEY CARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	D	ND	VELVA	46	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
5786	THE ELMS CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	NH	MILFORD	52	603 HEALTHCARE LLC
5787	Riverview Health and Rehab Center North	0.2%	61.8	B	MI	Detroit	180	DRSN ASSOCIATES LLC
5788	PRINCETON MEDICAL LODGE	0.2%	61.8	B	TX	PRINCETON	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5789	GARDEN VALLEY RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.2%	61.8	A	KS	GARDEN CITY	62	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
5790	CENTER AT NORTHRIDGE, LLC, THE	0.2%	61.8	A	CO	WESTMINSTER	96	—
5791	APPLE REHAB SHELTON LAKES	0.2%	61.8	A	CT	SHELTON	106	—
5792	Avir at Golfcrest	0.2%	61.8	C	TX	Houston	0	BELLVILLE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5793	La Bella of Rochelle	0.2%	61.8	C	IL	ROCHELLE	74	HIGHLIGHT HEALTHCARE TRUST
5794	WINDSOR MEDICAL CENTER INC	0.2%	61.8	B	OH	NORTH CANTON	20	—
5795	CAPITOL RIVER WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	C	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	120	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
5796	Crestview Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.2%	61.8	C	IA	Webster City	70	—
5797	TUTTLE CARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	OK	TUTTLE	52	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
5798	FOUNTAIN MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	61.8	A	FL	NORTH MIAMI	139	—
5799	WHITE ACRES WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	F	TX	EL PASO	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5800	Plaza Healthcare	0.2%	61.8	A	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	179	—

Showing 5,751–5,800 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.