Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,051–6,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6051	BROOKHAVEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	64.1	A	OH	BROOKVILLE	99	—
6052	BETSY ROSS REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	1.4%	64.1	D	NY	ROME	120	—
6053	RIVERSIDE MANOR NRSG & REHAB CTR	1.4%	64.1	B	OH	NEWCOMERSTOWN	80	—
6054	AVIATA AT BROOKSVILLE	1.4%	64.1	B	FL	BROOKSVILLE	120	—
6055	ROYAL SPRINGS HEALTHCARE AND REHAB	1.4%	64.1	C	NV	LAS VEGAS	225	—
6056	WHITE HOUSE HEALTH CARE INC	1.4%	64.1	A	TN	WHITE HOUSE	84	—
6057	PLATTSBURGH REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.4%	64.1	A	NY	PLATTSBURGH	89	—
6058	Pomeroy Living Sterling Skilled Rehabilitation	1.4%	64.1	A	MI	Sterling Heights	176	—
6059	VILLAGE MANOR OF CASCADIA	1.4%	64.1	A	OR	WOOD VILLAGE	60	—
6060	The NM Behavioral Health Institute at Las Vegas	1.4%	64.1	A	NM	Las Vegas	176	STATE OF NEW MEXICO
6061	UTICA REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.4%	64.0	D	NY	UTICA	120	—
6062	Ontario Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	1.4%	64.0	C	NY	Canandaigua	98	—
6063	CAPSTONE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.4%	64.0	B	NY	AMSTERDAM	120	—
6064	JEWEL HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	64.0	A	PA	ALLENTOWN	146	—
6065	WILLOWBROOKE COURT-SPRING HOUS	1.4%	64.0	A	PA	LOWER GWYNEDD	16	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6066	BARRETT CARE CENTER INC	1.4%	64.0	A	MN	BARRETT	40	—
6067	Meadow Brook Rehabilitation and Nursing	1.4%	64.0	A	UT	Salt Lake City	41	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
6068	ST JOHN NEUMANN CTR FOR REHAB & HEALTHCARE	1.4%	64.0	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	226	—
6069	PARK TERRACE VILLAGE	1.4%	64.0	D	IN	EVANSVILLE	96	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6070	CRESTWOOD MANOR	1.4%	64.0	A	CA	MODESTO	194	—
6071	LINN OAK REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	64.0	F	MO	LINN	132	—
6072	AVIATA AT ST CLOUD	1.4%	64.0	B	FL	SAINT CLOUD	120	—
6073	IMPERIAL MANOR	1.4%	64.0	C	CA	IMPERIAL	31	—
6074	BERTRAND NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.4%	64.0	B	MO	BERTRAND	60	—
6075	Good Samaritan Society - Pipestone	1.4%	64.0	B	MN	PIPESTONE	82	SANFORD
6076	LAUREL HEIGHTS COMMUNITY CARE	1.4%	64.0	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	32	—
6077	Cody Regional Health Long Term Care Center	1.4%	64.0	A	WY	Cody	94	WEST PARK HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6078	ARISTACARE AT PARKSIDE	1.4%	64.0	D	NJ	LINDEN	240	—
6079	HENDRIX HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.4%	64.0	A	AL	DOUBLE SPRINGS	110	—
6080	HIGHFIELD GARDENS CARE CENTER OF GREAT NECK	1.4%	64.0	B	NY	GREAT NECK	200	—
6081	MAGNOLIA MANOR OF COLUMBUS NURSING CENTER - EAST	1.4%	64.0	A	GA	COLUMBUS	210	MAGNOLIA MANOR INC
6082	Myerstown Nursing and Rehab LLC	1.4%	64.0	B	PA	MYERSTOWN	152	STONERIDGE RETIREMENT LIVING COMMUNITIES INC
6083	MARSHALL MANOR NURSING HOME	1.4%	64.0	A	AL	GUNTERSVILLE	91	—
6084	WAYSIDE FARM INC	1.4%	64.0	B	OH	PENINSULA	95	—
6085	ALTA VISTA HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE	1.4%	64.0	D	CA	RIVERSIDE	99	—
6086	COMPLETE CARE AT FAIR LAWN EDGE	1.4%	64.0	C	NJ	PATERSON	180	—
6087	MONTGOMERY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	64.0	C	NY	MONTGOMERY	100	—
6088	BEACH TERRACE CARE CENTER	1.4%	64.0	B	NY	LONG BEACH	182	—
6089	Southbridge Rehabilitation & Health Care Center	1.4%	63.9	B	MA	SOUTHBRIDGE	144	—
6090	AVIATA AT OAKFIELD	1.4%	63.9	F	FL	BRANDON	120	—
6091	PLANTATION MANOR NURSING HOME	1.4%	63.9	A	AL	MC CALLA	103	—
6092	Accura Healthcare of Ottumwa	1.4%	63.9	A	IA	Ottumwa	60	—
6093	HILLVIEW TERRACE	1.4%	63.9	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	143	SCHMIDT WALLACE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
6094	SHORE VIEW NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	63.9	A	NY	BROOKLYN	320	—
6095	CENTRAL QUEENS REHAB & NURSING CENTER	1.4%	63.9	B	NY	MASPETH	200	—
6096	WATERVILLE RESIDENTIAL CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.9	B	NY	WATERVILLE	92	—
6097	FOCUSED CARE AT STONEBRIAR	1.4%	63.9	C	TX	AUSTIN	134	—
6098	SOUTH MOUNTAIN HC	1.4%	63.9	B	NJ	VAUXHALL	195	—
6099	GOLDEN HILL NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	63.8	B	NY	KINGSTON	280	—
6100	FOUR SEASONS RETIREMENT CENTER	1.4%	63.8	B	IN	COLUMBUS	30	BHI SENIOR LIVING INC

Showing 6,051–6,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.