Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,101–6,150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6101	CLINTON HEALTHCARE LLC - SNF	1.4%	63.8	A	MS	CLINTON	121	—
6102	SUNNYCREST NURSING CENTER	1.4%	63.8	F	IA	DYSART	50	—
6103	Woodcrest Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.4%	63.8	A	KY	Elsmere	127	—
6104	BRONX CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE	1.4%	63.8	A	NY	BRONX	200	—
6105	PENN STATE HEALTH TRANSITIONAL CARE	1.4%	63.8	—	PA	HUMMELSTOWN	22	—
6106	CENTER AT CENTENNIAL, THE	1.4%	63.8	A	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	80	—
6107	Parkview Home, Inc	1.4%	63.8	C	NE	Dodge	62	—
6108	Good Samaritan Society - Superior	1.4%	63.8	C	NE	Superior	69	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
6109	EMERGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION AT GLEN COVE	1.4%	63.8	B	NY	GLEN COVE	102	—
6110	CENTRALIA MANOR	1.4%	63.8	B	IL	CENTRALIA	120	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
6111	The Grand Rehabilitation and Nursing at Barnwell	1.4%	63.8	F	NY	VALATIE	236	—
6112	QUIET OAKS HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.8	A	GA	CRAWFORD	61	—
6113	MANRESA HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.4%	63.8	A	CA	WATSONVILLE	59	—
6114	The Brightonian, Inc	1.4%	63.8	A	NY	Rochester	54	—
6115	LAWRENCE NURSING CARE CENTER, INC	1.4%	63.8	C	NY	ARVERNE	200	—
6116	BELLA VISTA HEALTH CENTER	1.4%	63.8	A	CA	LEMON GROVE	99	—
6117	FOREST RIDGE HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	1.4%	63.7	A	CO	WOODLAND PARK	80	—
6118	SINAI POST-ACUTE NURSING & REHAB CENTER	1.4%	63.7	D	NJ	NEWARK	430	—
6119	AMBERWOOD CARE CENTRE	1.4%	63.7	C	IL	ROCKFORD	135	—
6120	Valley Healthcare Center	1.4%	63.7	B	CA	San Bernardino	109	COTTON FAMILY REVOCABLE TRUST
6121	REGENCY HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTER	1.4%	63.7	B	DE	WILMINGTON	100	—
6122	MARQUIS MARIAN ESTATES	1.4%	63.7	D	OR	SUBLIMITY	214	—
6123	BEDFORD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.4%	63.7	B	NY	BROOKLYN	200	—
6124	OAKS NURSING HOME, INC, THE	1.4%	63.7	A	GA	MARSHALLVILLE	60	—
6125	DELAWARE VETERANS HOME	1.4%	63.7	C	DE	MILFORD	144	—
6126	Village of Lebanon	1.4%	63.7	B	KY	Lebanon	54	—
6127	SAINT LUKE LUTHERAN HOME	1.4%	63.7	F	OH	NORTH CANTON	166	—
6128	THE HEIGHTS OF MAGNOLIA	1.4%	63.7	A	TX	MAGNOLIA	138	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6129	PARK GARDENS REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER L L C	1.4%	63.7	B	NY	RIVERDALE	200	—
6130	OXFORD NURSING HOME	1.4%	63.7	A	NY	BROOKLYN	235	—
6131	MOMENTUM AT SOUTH BAY FOR REHAB AND NURSING	1.4%	63.7	A	NY	EAST ISLIP	160	—
6132	PRESTIGE NURSING CARE & REHAB CENTER	1.4%	63.7	D	NY	BRONX	400	—
6133	ELMWOOD HILLS HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC	1.4%	63.7	B	NJ	BLACKWOOD	300	—
6134	MARION MANOR NURSING HOME INC	1.4%	63.7	F	OH	MARION	92	—
6135	PINE CREST HEALTH AND MEMORY CARE	1.4%	63.7	B	WI	MERRILL	120	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
6136	COTTAGE CREST POST ACUTE	1.4%	63.5	D	CA	NORWALK	59	—
6137	Heritage Specialty Care	1.4%	63.5	F	IA	Cedar Rapids	171	CARE INITIATIVES
6138	Briar Creek Health Center	1.4%	63.5	C	NC	Charlotte	6	—
6139	GLENHAVEN	1.4%	63.5	B	WI	GLENWOOD CITY	44	—
6140	MANHATTANVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.5	B	NY	BRONX	200	—
6141	CRESTFIELD REHABILITATION CENTER & FENWOOD MANOR	1.4%	63.5	D	CT	MANCHESTER	155	—
6142	Alpine Nursing Home Inc	1.4%	63.5	A	RI	Coventry	60	—
6143	LACONIA NURSING HOME	1.4%	63.5	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
6144	COLUMBINE COMMONS HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	1.4%	63.5	B	CO	WINDSOR	60	—
6145	DOLPHIN POINTE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.5	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE	146	—
6146	VALLEY OF THE MOON POST ACUTE	1.4%	63.5	B	CA	SONOMA	27	—
6147	ALBERTVILLE NURSING HOME	1.4%	63.5	A	AL	ALBERTVILLE	159	SCHMIDT WALLACE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
6148	CLARVIEW NURSING AND REHAB CEN	1.4%	63.5	C	PA	SLIGO	120	—
6149	THE ELLINGTON	1.4%	63.5	B	LA	RAYNE	120	—
6150	LOS ANGELES COMM HOSPITAL	1.4%	63.5	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	39	CHAMBER INC

Showing 6,101–6,150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.