Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,151–6,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6151	AVIATA AT KISSIMMEE GARDENS	1.4%	63.5	C	FL	KISSIMMEE	120	—
6152	Big Elm Retirement and Nursing Centers	1.4%	63.5	A	NC	Kannapolis	50	—
6153	DESERT RIDGE TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER, LP	1.4%	63.5	A	CA	VICTORVILLE	—	—
6154	PROCTOR COM HSP SK N CENTER	1.4%	63.5	—	IL	PEORIA	36	—
6155	Pruitthealth - The Lodge, LLC	1.4%	63.5	A	GA	WARNER ROBINS	106	HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
6156	EDEN SPRINGS NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.4%	63.5	A	FL	CRAWFORDVILLE	120	—
6157	BEAVER DAM NURSING & REHAB CENTER, INC	1.4%	63.5	B	KY	BEAVER DAM	58	—
6158	WOODLAKE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	63.5	A	MN	CRYSTAL	188	—
6159	RICHLAND HILLS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTE	1.4%	63.5	C	TX	FORT WORTH	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6160	MARIAN MANOR CORPORATION	1.4%	63.5	D	PA	PITTSBURGH	118	—
6161	The Woodlands Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.4%	63.5	D	TX	The Woodlands	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6162	NAZARETH LIVING CENTER	1.4%	63.4	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	121	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
6163	FUTURE CARE HOMEWOOD	1.4%	63.4	A	MD	BALTIMORE	141	FUTURE CARE HEALTH AND MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
6164	JAMES G JOHNSTON MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	1.4%	63.4	F	NY	JOHNSON CITY	122	—
6165	HOMESTEAD MANOR A PALACE COMMUNITY	1.4%	63.4	A	FL	HOMESTEAD	88	PROFESSIONAL CARE I INC
6166	CORONA HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.4	C	CA	CORONA	99	—
6167	BURNS NURSING HOME, INC.	1.4%	63.4	A	AL	RUSSELLVILLE	57	—
6168	THE WINDSOR PLACE	1.4%	63.4	B	MS	COLUMBUS	140	—
6169	CLATSOP CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.4	A	OR	ASTORIA	71	AIDAN HEALTH SERVICES INC
6170	Good Samaritan Society - Albion	1.4%	63.4	B	NE	Albion	60	SANFORD
6171	Blossom Health Care Center Inc.	1.4%	63.4	C	NY	Rochester	80	—
6172	CEDARS THE	1.4%	63.4	A	IN	LEO	65	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6173	60 WEST	1.4%	63.4	A	CT	ROCKY HILL	95	VANTAGE CAPITAL INVESTORS LLC
6174	TULIA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	63.4	F	TX	TULIA	52	—
6175	PROMENADE CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.4	F	CA	FRESNO	232	—
6176	LAREDO SOUTH NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	63.4	D	TX	LAREDO	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6177	WATERVIEW HILLS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.4%	63.4	B	NY	PURDY STATION	130	—
6178	Comprehensive Rehabilitation and Nursing Center at	1.4%	63.4	C	NY	WILLIAMSVILLE	142	—
6179	ST JOHNSVILLE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.4%	63.4	A	NY	SAINT JOHNSVILLE	120	—
6180	Eastwood Nursing Center	1.4%	63.4	A	MI	Negaunee	100	—
6181	QUEEN ANNE NURSING HOME, INC	1.4%	63.4	A	MA	HINGHAM	106	—
6182	TRANQUILITY OF RICHMOND HEIGHTS	1.4%	63.4	B	OH	RICHMOND HEIGHTS	60	—
6183	SUNNYSIDE MANOR	1.4%	63.3	A	NJ	WALL	60	—
6184	APPLE REHAB WATERTOWN	1.4%	63.3	B	CT	WATERTOWN	110	—
6185	BOTHELL HEALTH CARE	1.4%	63.3	B	WA	BOTHELL	99	—
6186	THE VILLAGES OF ORLEANS HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	1.4%	63.3	C	NY	ALBION	120	—
6187	CHESHIRE HOUSE HEALTH CARE FACILITY & REHAB CENTER	1.4%	63.3	A	CT	WATERBURY	75	—
6188	SEYMOUR CROSSING	1.4%	63.3	B	IN	SEYMOUR	115	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6189	HANOVER HILL HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.3	B	NH	MANCHESTER	124	—
6190	CHAMPLAIN VALLEY PHYSICIANS HOSP MED CTR S N F	1.4%	63.3	A	NY	PLATTSBURGH	95	THE UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT HEALTH NETWORK INC
6191	CRENSHAW NURSING HOME	1.4%	63.3	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	55	—
6192	HARRISON TERRACE	1.4%	63.3	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	110	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6193	CORTLANDT HEALTHCARE	1.4%	63.3	B	NY	CORTLANDT MANOR	120	—
6194	SAN GABRIEL VALLEY MEDICAL CTR D/P SNF	1.4%	63.3	A	CA	SAN GABRIEL	44	AHMC INC
6195	EXCELCARE AT WILMINGTON LLC	1.4%	63.3	C	DE	WILMINGTON	150	—
6196	AVIATA AT FLETCHER	1.4%	63.3	C	FL	TAMPA	120	—
6197	SUNNY VILLAGE CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.2	B	CA	ALHAMBRA	99	—
6198	CLEAR VIEW SANITARIUM	1.4%	63.2	A	CA	GARDENA	73	—
6199	MEADOW PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CENTER L L C	1.4%	63.2	C	NY	FLUSHING	135	—
6200	COMMUNITY CONVALESCENT CENTER OF SAN BERNARDINO	1.4%	63.2	A	CA	SAN BERNARDINO	84	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH

Showing 6,151–6,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.