Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,201–6,250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6201	SAFIRE REHABILITATION OF NORTHTOWNS, L L C	1.4%	63.2	C	NY	TONAWANDA	100	—
6202	LIMA MANOR	1.4%	63.2	D	OH	LIMA	77	—
6203	Stratford Specialty Care	1.4%	63.2	B	IA	Stratford	53	CARE INITIATIVES
6204	FAIRVIEW COMMONS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	63.2	D	MA	GREAT BARRINGTON	146	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
6205	HEARTLAND COUNTRY VILLAGE	1.4%	63.2	C	WI	BLACK EARTH	50	—
6206	MAPLE SPRINGS OF WASILLA	1.4%	63.2	C	AK	WASILLA	67	BRONSHIELD LLC
6207	LYNN HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.4%	63.2	A	GA	GRAY	104	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6208	GREENBRIER NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.4%	63.2	B	AR	GREENBRIER	90	—
6209	FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE OF TEMPE	1.4%	63.2	A	AZ	TEMPE	128	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
6210	DWELLING PLACE AT ST CLARES	1.4%	63.2	A	NJ	DOVER	28	PRIME HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
6211	Islands Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation	1.4%	63.2	C	HI	Honolulu	42	—
6212	Good Samaritan - Waukon	1.4%	63.2	F	IA	Waukon	60	SANFORD
6213	RIVER HEIGHTS HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.4%	63.2	A	MS	GREENVILLE	60	—
6214	SHADESCREST HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.4%	63.2	A	AL	JASPER	107	—
6215	WINDSOR PARK REHAB & NURSING CENTER	1.3%	63.1	B	NY	QUEENS VILLAGE	70	—
6216	BELAIR CARE CENTER INC	1.3%	63.1	A	NY	BELLMORE	102	ESTATE OF MAYER LAUFER
6217	HILLEBRAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	63.1	C	OH	CINCINNATI	108	—
6218	UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.3%	63.1	A	NY	BRONX	46	—
6219	HAVEN CONVALESCENT HOME, INC	1.3%	63.1	A	PA	NEW CASTLE	91	—
6220	APPLE REHAB SHELTON LAKES	1.3%	63.1	A	CT	SHELTON	106	—
6221	NORWICH REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.3%	63.1	A	NY	NORWICH	80	—
6222	UNIVERSITY NURSING CENTER	1.3%	63.1	B	IN	UPLAND	75	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6223	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - BOTTINEAU	1.3%	63.1	A	ND	BOTTINEAU	52	SANFORD
6224	VERNON HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.3%	63.1	B	IN	WABASH	71	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
6225	Bethesda Health Care Facility	1.3%	63.1	A	NC	Eastover	85	—
6226	THE GRAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT QUEENS	1.3%	63.1	A	NY	WHITESTONE	179	—
6227	ALARIS HEALTH AT ST MARYS	1.3%	63.1	F	NJ	ORANGE	188	—
6228	Corewell Health Rehabilitation & Nursing Center -	1.3%	63.1	B	MI	Dearborn	196	COREWELL HEALTH
6229	TEN BROECK COMMONS	1.3%	63.1	A	NY	LAKE KATRINE	258	—
6230	Medford Multicare Center For Living	1.3%	63.1	C	NY	MEDFORD	320	—
6231	ELDERWOOD AT CHEEKTOWAGA	1.3%	63.1	B	NY	CHEEKTOWAGA	172	—
6232	Lord Chamberlain Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	1.3%	63.1	B	CT	STRATFORD	190	MARTIN SBRIGLIO 2009 TRUST
6233	Portland Care & Rehab Centre, INC	1.3%	63.1	B	CT	PORTLAND	65	—
6234	ALPINE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	63.1	A	NY	LITTLE FALLS	80	—
6235	HIGHLAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	63.1	A	NY	MIDDLETOWN	98	—
6236	LONG ISLAND CARE CENTER INC	1.3%	63.1	C	NY	FLUSHING	200	—
6237	4ANGELS OF BYROMVILLE HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.3%	63.1	A	GA	BYROMVILLE	—	—
6238	AVIATA AT COUNTRYSIDE	1.3%	63.1	B	FL	PALM HARBOR	120	—
6239	COLLINSVILLE HEALTHCARE & REHAB	1.3%	63.1	A	AL	COLLINSVILLE	200	—
6240	REGAL HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CTR	1.3%	63.1	A	NY	JACKSON HEIGHTS	280	—
6241	Thomson-Hood Veterans Center	1.3%	63.0	B	KY	Wilmore	285	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
6242	Stanley Total Living Center	1.3%	63.0	C	NC	Stanley	106	—
6243	NORTH COUNTRY NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	63.0	A	NY	MASSENA	140	—
6244	GLADES WEST REHABILITATION AND NURSING C	1.3%	63.0	A	FL	PEMBROKE PINES	120	—
6245	ATTLEBORO HEALTHCARE	1.3%	63.0	F	MA	ATTLEBORO	120	—
6246	VESTAL PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	63.0	B	NY	VESTAL	180	—
6247	WAHIAWA GENERAL HOSPITAL	1.3%	63.0	—	HI	WAHIAWA	107	—
6248	GRANVILLE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.3%	63.0	B	NY	GRANVILLE	120	—
6249	Good Samaritan Society - St John's	1.3%	63.0	C	NE	Kearney	56	SANFORD
6250	ADIRA AT RIVERSIDE REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.3%	63.0	B	NY	YONKERS	120	—

Showing 6,201–6,250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.