Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,251–6,300

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6251	FLATROCK RIVER LODGE	1.3%	63.0	C	IN	RUSHVILLE	63	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
6252	CENTER AT ROCK CREEK, LLC	1.3%	63.0	D	CO	FORT COLLINS	70	—
6253	CORE OF DALE	1.3%	63.0	F	IN	DALE	52	MAJOR HOSPITAL
6254	RESTORACY OF WHITESTOWN, THE	1.3%	63.0	A	IN	WHITESTOWN	72	DECATUR COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6255	LAKEVIEW GARDENS	1.3%	63.0	—	OR	LAKEVIEW	47	—
6256	Cypress Glen Retirement Community	1.3%	63.0	A	NC	Greenville	6	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
6257	ADVENA LIVING OF CLAY CENTER	1.3%	63.0	C	KS	CLAY CENTER	40	—
6258	ORCHARD REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.3%	63.0	A	NY	MEDINA	160	—
6259	ELMORA HILLS HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	62.9	C	NJ	ELIZABETH	200	—
6260	AVIATA AT SAN JOSE	1.3%	62.9	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	—
6261	CITRUS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	62.9	B	FL	INVERNESS	111	—
6262	Emerson Health Care Center	1.3%	62.9	A	NJ	EMERSON	155	—
6263	Good Samaritan Society - Windom	1.3%	62.9	B	MN	WINDOM	63	SANFORD
6264	HENNIS CARE CENTRE OF BOLIVAR	1.3%	62.9	C	OH	BOLIVAR	115	—
6265	APPLE CREEK HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	1.3%	62.9	C	AR	CENTERTON	114	—
6266	AVIATA AT EMERALD SHORES	1.3%	62.9	B	FL	CALLAWAY	77	—
6267	AVON OAKS NURSING HOME	1.3%	62.9	A	OH	AVON	99	—
6268	SPRING CREEK REHABILITATION & NURSING CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.9	B	NY	BROOKLYN	180	—
6269	Arrowhead Healthcare Center, LLC	1.3%	62.9	A	CA	San Bernardino	58	RENEW HEALTH GROUP LLC
6270	AVIATA AT PALM BAY	1.3%	62.9	D	FL	PALM BAY	120	—
6271	PARK PLACE NURSING FACILITY	1.3%	62.9	A	GA	MONROE	175	—
6272	HILLSIDE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.3%	62.8	D	MT	MISSOULA	95	—
6273	RIVERSIDE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.3%	62.8	A	NY	CASTLETON ON HUDSON	80	—
6274	HIGHLAND PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	62.8	B	NY	WELLSVILLE	80	—
6275	WISTERIA GARDENS	1.3%	62.8	A	MS	PEARL	52	—
6276	CORAL GABLES NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	62.8	B	FL	MIAMI	87	—
6277	SUNHARBOR MANOR	1.3%	62.8	B	NY	ROSLYN HEIGHTS	266	—
6278	FRIEDWALD CENTER FOR REHAB AND NURSING, L L C	1.3%	62.8	B	NY	NEW CITY	180	—
6279	TOLEDO RETIREMENT AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	62.8	B	LA	ZWOLLE	50	—
6280	STONEHEDGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.8	F	MA	W ROXBURY	79	—
6281	DIXON NURSING & REHAB	1.3%	62.8	C	MO	DIXON	60	—
6282	SUTTON PARK CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.3%	62.8	B	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	160	—
6283	WESTSIDE TERRACE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	62.8	A	AL	DOTHAN	165	TURENNE & ASSOCIATES LLC
6284	SEMINOLE PAVILION REHABILITATION & NURSING SERVICE	1.3%	62.8	F	FL	SEMINOLE	95	—
6285	JOHN KNOX VILLAGE CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.8	C	MO	LEES SUMMIT	324	PREMIERLIFE
6286	SALEM HILLS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	62.8	B	NY	PURDYS	126	—
6287	Arlington Pointe Care Center	1.3%	62.8	A	OH	MIDDLETOWN	107	—
6288	Western Horizons Care Center	1.3%	62.8	B	ND	HETTINGER	40	—
6289	SPRING MILL MEADOWS	1.3%	62.8	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	124	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6290	SERVICIOS INTEGRADOS DE REHABILITACION (SIRO) INC	1.3%	62.8	B	PR	HORMIGUEROS	20	—
6291	ROCKVILLE SKILLED NURSING & REHAB CENTER, L L C	1.3%	62.8	A	NY	ROCKVILLE CENTRE	66	—
6292	REGENCY CANYON LAKES REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	62.7	B	WA	KENNEWICK	53	—
6293	Westwood Nursing Center	1.3%	62.7	C	MI	Detroit	108	—
6294	ABCM REHAB CENTERS OF INDEPENDENCE EAST CAMPUS	1.3%	62.7	F	IA	INDEPENDENCE	50	—
6295	ELDERWOOD AT WHEATFIELD	1.3%	62.7	B	NY	NIAGARA FALLS	123	—
6296	ROLLING FIELDS, INC	1.3%	62.7	C	PA	CONNEAUTVILLE	181	—
6297	EAST LAKE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	62.7	B	IN	ELKHART	152	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6298	CHI Health St. Francis	1.3%	62.7	A	NE	Grand Island	36	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
6299	Corning Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	1.3%	62.7	A	NY	Corning	120	—
6300	EASTCHESTER REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.7	B	NY	BRONX	200	—

Showing 6,251–6,300 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.