Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,301–6,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6301	Aerius Health Center	1.3%	62.7	A	MI	Riverview	78	—
6302	ORCHARDS AT TULARE	1.3%	62.7	A	CA	TULARE	99	MAGNOLIA HEALTH CORPORATION
6303	STATEN ISLAND CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.7	B	NY	STATEN ISLAND	300	—
6304	Care Connection Rahway	1.3%	62.7	B	NJ	RAHWAY	24	—
6305	EXCEL AT WOODBURY FOR REHAB AND NURSING, L L C	1.3%	62.7	C	NY	WOODBURY	123	—
6306	GOOD SHEPHERD THE	1.3%	62.7	A	OH	ASHLAND	125	—
6307	TOWNHOUSE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING	1.3%	62.7	B	NY	UNIONDALE	280	—
6308	CHAPEL RIDGE HEALTH AND REHAB	1.3%	62.5	B	AR	FORT SMITH	74	—
6309	Aaron Manor Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	1.3%	62.5	A	NY	Fairport	140	—
6310	STERLING VILLAGE	1.3%	62.5	A	MA	STERLING	143	—
6311	FRANKLIN MEADOWS	1.3%	62.5	C	IN	FRANKLIN	114	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6312	EPIC REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT WHITE PLAINS	1.3%	62.5	C	NY	WHITE PLAINS	160	—
6313	DUMONT CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE	1.3%	62.5	A	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	196	—
6314	NORTHAMPTON COUNTY-GRACEDALE	1.3%	62.5	D	PA	NAZARETH	688	—
6315	ABBOTT TERRACE HEALTH CENTER	1.3%	62.5	C	CT	WATERBURY	205	—
6316	ATLAS HEALTHCARE AT SEASHORE GARDENS	1.3%	62.5	B	NJ	GALLOWAY TOWNSHIP	151	—
6317	WILLOW HAVEN NURSING HOME	1.3%	62.5	B	OK	TONKAWA	49	—
6318	TWIN OAKS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.3%	62.5	A	AL	MOBILE	131	—
6319	HERITAGE HALL BIG STONE GAP	1.3%	62.5	C	VA	BIG STONE GAP	180	—
6320	AVIATA AT SPRING HILL	1.3%	62.5	B	FL	BROOKSVILLE	120	—
6321	Elderwood at Amherst	1.3%	62.5	C	NY	Amherst	92	—
6322	TACONIC REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT BEACON	1.3%	62.5	B	NY	BEACON	160	—
6323	MAPLECREST NURSING AND HTA	1.3%	62.5	A	OH	STRUTHERS	55	—
6324	ALTHEA WOODLAND NURSING HOME	1.3%	62.5	A	MD	SILVER SPRING	50	—
6325	PINE VALLEY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.3%	62.5	B	NY	SPRING VALLEY	160	—
6326	THE PINES AT GLENS FALLS CTR FOR NURSING & REHAB	1.3%	62.5	A	NY	GLENS FALLS	120	—
6327	BRONX PARK REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.3%	62.5	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
6328	SPRINGS AT 3030 PARK, THE	1.3%	62.5	C	CT	BRIDGEPORT	23	—
6329	INDIANA VETERANS HOME	1.3%	62.5	A	IN	WEST LAFAYETTE	212	—
6330	VIEW PARK CONVALESCENT CENTER	1.3%	62.4	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	—
6331	Kingsville Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.3%	62.4	A	TX	Kingsville	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6332	MADISON HEALTH AND REHAB	1.3%	62.4	B	GA	MADISON	67	—
6333	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY SIOUX FALLS CENTER	1.3%	62.4	F	SD	SIOUX FALLS	98	SANFORD
6334	Bishop Drumm Retirement Center	1.3%	62.4	C	IA	Johnston	150	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
6335	UPPER EAST SIDE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	62.4	A	NY	NEW YORK CITY	499	—
6336	TREND HEALTH & REHAB OF MERIDIAN LLC	1.3%	62.4	A	MS	MERIDIAN	58	—
6337	AVIATA AT PALMA SOLA BAY	1.3%	62.4	C	FL	BRADENTON	105	—
6338	CHEROKEE COUNTY NURSING CENTER	1.3%	62.4	B	OK	TAHLEQUAH	110	—
6339	NORTH WESTCHESTER RESTORATIVE THERAPY & NRSG CRT	1.3%	62.4	C	NY	MOHEGAN LAKE	120	—
6340	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ATWOOD	1.3%	62.4	B	KS	ATWOOD	35	SANFORD
6341	LEGEND OAKS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION - ENNIS	1.3%	62.4	C	TX	ENNIS	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6342	JOHN T MATHER MEMORIAL HOSP T C U	1.3%	62.4	A	NY	PORT JEFFERSON	16	NORTHWELL HEALTHCARE INC
6343	Power County Skilled Nursing Facility	1.3%	62.4	B	ID	American Falls	21	—
6344	Farmington Wellness & Rehabilitation	1.3%	62.4	D	NM	Farmington	50	—
6345	SUN TERRACE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.4	A	FL	SUN CITY CENTER	130	—
6346	ANDRUS ON HUDSON	1.3%	62.4	A	NY	HASTINGS ON HUDSON	197	—
6347	Lake Woods Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	1.3%	62.4	B	MI	Muskegon	90	—
6348	Caribou Rehab and Nursing Center	1.3%	62.4	B	ME	CARIBOU	72	—
6349	NEW GLEN OAKS NURSING HOME, INC	1.3%	62.4	A	NY	GLEN OAKS	60	—
6350	LUTHERAN HOME AT HOLLIDAYSBURG	1.3%	62.4	C	PA	HOLLIDAYSBURG	89	—

Showing 6,301–6,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.