Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,351–6,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6351	HOLLIS PARK MANOR NURSING HOME	1.3%	62.4	A	NY	HOLLIS	80	—
6352	HANCEVILLE NURSING & REHAB CENTER, INC	1.3%	62.3	A	AL	HANCEVILLE	208	—
6353	PINES NURSING HOME	1.3%	62.3	A	FL	MIAMI	46	—
6354	NORTH CAMPUS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	62.3	B	FL	LEESBURG	90	—
6355	SIERRA VIEW MEDICAL CENTER	1.3%	62.3	A	CA	PORTERVILLE	35	—
6356	CARROLLWOOD CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.3	B	FL	TAMPA	120	—
6357	HERITAGE OAKS	1.3%	62.3	C	GA	SAINT SIMONS ISLAND	125	MAGNOLIA MANOR INC
6358	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY DE SMET	1.3%	62.3	C	SD	DE SMET	46	SANFORD
6359	OCEANSIDE CARE CENTER INC	1.3%	62.3	A	NY	OCEANSIDE	100	—
6360	PARK VILLAGE HC NP LLC	1.3%	62.3	A	OH	NEW PHILADELPHIA	40	—
6361	EL ENCANTO HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.3%	62.3	C	CA	CITY OF INDUSTRY	185	—
6362	Traverse Care Center	1.3%	62.3	A	MN	WHEATON	44	MINNEWASKA LUTHERAN HOME
6363	SUNDALE NURSING HOME	1.3%	62.3	A	WV	MORGANTOWN	100	—
6364	HERITAGE HEALTH-MINONK	1.3%	62.3	C	IL	MINONK	49	—
6365	Good Samaritan Society - Millard	1.3%	62.3	B	NE	Omaha	106	SANFORD
6366	PARK SHORE	1.3%	62.2	A	WA	SEATTLE	28	PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES NORTHWEST
6367	LIBERTYVILLE MANOR EXT CARE	1.3%	62.2	C	IL	LIBERTYVILLE	174	—
6368	PINE VIEW REHABILITATION AND SENIOR LIVING	1.3%	62.2	D	MN	CALEDONIA	49	—
6369	ASPIRE OF DONNELLSON	1.3%	62.2	A	IA	DONNELLSON	65	—
6370	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ST JAMES	1.3%	62.2	B	MN	ST JAMES	42	SANFORD
6371	Horizons Living and Rehab Center	1.3%	62.2	A	ME	BRUNSWICK	65	—
6372	ATHENS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	62.2	B	TX	ATHENS	60	—
6373	Kingsley Specialty Care	1.3%	62.2	C	IA	Kingsley	43	CARE INITIATIVES
6374	CRESTWOOD MANOR - FREMONT	1.3%	62.2	A	CA	FREMONT	126	—
6375	RIVER CITY NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.3%	62.2	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE	116	—
6376	ROCK RAPIDS HEALTH CENTRE	1.3%	62.2	C	IA	ROCK RAPIDS	44	—
6377	Chautauqua Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.3%	62.2	B	NY	DUNKIRK	216	—
6378	RIDDLE MEMORIAL HOSP HB SNF	1.3%	62.2	—	PA	MEDIA	23	—
6379	NEWFANE REHAB & HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.2	A	NY	NEWFANE	165	—
6380	NORTHWEST FLORIDA COMMUNITY HOSPITAL (SNU)	1.3%	62.2	A	FL	CHIPLEY	34	—
6381	MONROE MANOR	1.3%	62.2	C	MO	PARIS	119	—
6382	WILLIAMSBRIDGE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NRSG	1.3%	62.2	A	NY	BRONX	77	—
6383	RIDERWOOD VILLAGE	1.3%	62.2	A	MD	SILVER SPRING	44	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
6384	DADE COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT	1.3%	62.2	F	MO	GREENFIELD	114	—
6385	Grace Barker Nursing Center	1.3%	62.2	A	RI	Warren	86	—
6386	Crestview Specialty Care	1.3%	62.2	D	IA	West Branch	65	CARE INITIATIVES
6387	LIGHTHOUSE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.3%	62.2	B	MA	REVERE	123	—
6388	ESSENTIA HEALTH HOMESTEAD	1.3%	62.2	B	MN	DEER RIVER	32	ESSENTIA HEALTH
6389	Valley Care And Rehab Llc	1.3%	62.2	A	MN	BARNESVILLE	35	—
6390	IDYLWOOD CARE CENTER	1.3%	62.2	A	CA	SUNNYVALE	185	—
6391	SPRAIN BROOK MANOR REHAB	1.3%	62.2	A	NY	SCARSDALE	121	—
6392	WILLOWBROOKE COURT SKILLED CENTER AT MANOR HOUSE	1.3%	62.2	A	DE	SEAFORD	15	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6393	HERITAGE PLACE	1.3%	62.2	A	AK	SOLDOTNA	60	—
6394	Corn Heritage Village and Rehab	1.3%	62.2	C	OK	Corn	104	—
6395	VISTA PACIFICA CENTER	1.2%	62.1	B	CA	JURUPA VALLEY	108	—
6396	ATRIUM CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.2%	62.1	B	NY	BROOKLYN	380	—
6397	BRIARWOOD MANOR CARE CENTER	1.2%	62.1	F	TX	BELLVILLE	49	—
6398	HOLMES COUNTY LONG TERM CARE CENTER - DURANT	1.2%	62.1	A	MS	DURANT	80	—
6399	CHILDRENS HC ORG NO CA -PEDIATRIC HOSPITAL D/P SNF	1.2%	62.1	A	CA	CAMPBELL	27	INNOVATIONS HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
6400	C M Tucker Jr Nursing Care Center Roddey Pavilio	1.2%	62.1	C	SC	Columbia	308	SOUTH CAROLINA DEPT OF MENTAL HEALTH ACCOUNTING OFFICE

Showing 6,351–6,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.