Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,401–6,450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6401	ANGELS NURSING HEALTH CENTER	1.2%	62.1	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	49	—
6402	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE OSCEOLA	1.2%	62.1	B	FL	SAINT CLOUD	120	—
6403	WILLOWBROOKE COURT-GRANITE	1.2%	62.1	A	PA	MEDIA	10	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6404	VALLEY VIEW MANOR NURSING HOME	1.2%	62.1	A	NY	NORWICH	82	—
6405	Charter House Inc	1.2%	62.1	C	MN	ROCHESTER	32	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
6406	Hillcrest Care Center	1.2%	62.1	C	NE	Laurel	36	—
6407	Radcliff Veterans Center	1.2%	62.1	C	KY	Radcliff	120	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
6408	OASIS REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC	1.2%	62.1	A	NY	CENTER MORICHES	100	—
6409	WHITNEY REHABILITATION CARE CENTER	1.2%	62.1	A	CT	HAMDEN	150	—
6410	ANAHEIM HEALTHCARE CENTER, LLC	1.2%	62.1	B	CA	ANAHEIM	250	—
6411	Nursing Center at La Posada, The	1.2%	62.1	A	FL	PALM BEACH GARDENS	40	—
6412	ALLEN MORGAN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.2%	62.1	A	TN	MEMPHIS	104	—
6413	THE GREENS AT WESTLAKE	1.2%	62.1	C	OH	WESTLAKE	125	—
6414	TRANSITIONAL CARE SAINT THERESE	1.2%	62.1	F	MN	ROBBINSDALE	32	—
6415	Brown Health and Rehabilitation	1.2%	62.1	B	GA	ROYSTON	144	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6416	BEDFORD ALZHEIMER'S CARE CENTER	1.2%	62.0	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	60	—
6417	LAURIE CARE CENTER	1.2%	62.0	B	MO	GRAVOIS MILLS	108	—
6418	ELMS HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.2%	62.0	C	NE	PONCA	42	—
6419	Valley Vista Care Center of St Maries	1.2%	62.0	C	ID	St Maries	74	VALLEY VISTA CARE CORPORATION
6420	RED BUD REGIONAL CARE	1.2%	62.0	D	IL	RED BUD	99	—
6421	AVIATA AT GRAND OAKS	1.2%	62.0	F	FL	PALM COAST	120	—
6422	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY SCOTLAND	1.2%	62.0	B	SD	SCOTLAND	45	SANFORD
6423	Good Samaritan - Estherville	1.2%	62.0	D	IA	Estherville	62	SANFORD
6424	AUTUMN LEAVES	1.2%	62.0	D	TX	DALLAS	75	—
6425	FIANNA HILLS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.2%	62.0	A	AR	FORT SMITH	102	—
6426	Thatcher Brook Rehabilitation & Care Center	1.2%	62.0	A	UT	Clearfield	30	—
6427	Briarcliffe Manor	1.2%	62.0	A	RI	Johnston	122	—
6428	Maple City Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	1.2%	62.0	D	NY	Hornell	114	—
6429	MCGIVNEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.2%	62.0	C	IN	CARMEL	37	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6430	ESSENTIA HEALTH VIRGINIA CARE CENT	1.2%	61.9	A	MN	VIRGINIA	40	ESSENTIA HEALTH
6431	NEURORESTORATIVE	1.2%	61.9	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	24	CAREMERIDIAN LLC
6432	GREYSTONE NURSING AND REHAB, LLC	1.2%	61.9	A	AR	CABOT	80	—
6433	CARTHAGE SENIOR CARE	1.2%	61.9	A	MS	CARTHAGE	60	—
6434	GUILFORD HOUSE, THE	1.2%	61.9	B	CT	GUILFORD	75	—
6435	INTERMOUNTAIN HEALTH HOLY ROSARY HOSPITAL	1.2%	61.9	B	MT	MILES CITY	84	INTERMOUNTAIN HEALTH CARE INC
6436	MAYFAIR CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.9	C	NY	HEMPSTEAD	200	—
6437	SOUTH PASADENA CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.9	B	CA	SOUTH PASADENA	156	—
6438	BELLHAVEN CENTER FOR REHAB AND NURSING CARE	1.2%	61.9	B	NY	BROOKHAVEN	240	—
6439	HICKORY CREEK AT KENDALLVILLE	1.2%	61.9	F	IN	KENDALLVILLE	36	—
6440	ELMHURST CARE CENTER INC	1.2%	61.9	A	NY	EAST ELMHURST	240	—
6441	VI AT HIGHLANDS RANCH SKILLED NURSING	1.2%	61.9	A	CO	HIGHLANDS RANCH	24	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
6442	Steuben Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	1.2%	61.9	A	NY	Bath	105	—
6443	MELLEN MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.2%	61.9	C	WI	MELLEN	21	—
6444	Good Samaritan Society - Beatrice	1.2%	61.9	C	NE	Beatrice	80	SANFORD
6445	RIVERCREST LONG TERM CARE	1.2%	61.9	A	MA	W CONCORD	151	—
6446	Majestic Care of Beckley	1.2%	61.9	C	WV	BECKLEY	199	—
6447	Legacy Village Rehabilitation	1.2%	61.9	C	UT	Taylorsville	40	—
6448	HIGHLAND CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.9	B	NY	JAMAICA	320	—
6449	THE CARE CENTER OF HONOLULU	1.2%	61.8	C	HI	HONOLULU	182	—
6450	REGENCY HOUSE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.2%	61.8	A	CT	WALLINGFORD	130	—

Showing 6,401–6,450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.