Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,451–6,500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6451	WILKINS HEALTH & REHABILITATION COMMUNITY	1.2%	61.8	A	OK	DUNCAN	118	—
6452	ADVANCED REHAB CENTER OF TUSTIN	1.2%	61.8	B	CA	SANTA ANA	99	—
6453	Cranberry Place	1.2%	61.8	D	PA	CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP	150	UPMC
6454	EXTENDED CARE HOSPITAL OF WESTMINSTER	1.2%	61.8	A	CA	WESTMINSTER	99	—
6455	THE HEALTH CENTER AT STANDIFER PLACE	1.2%	61.8	A	TN	CHATTANOOGA	444	—
6456	MEADOWBROOK CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.8	A	NY	FREEPORT	280	—
6457	Willowbrooke Court SC Ctr at Tryon Estates	1.2%	61.8	A	NC	Columbus	16	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6458	TARRYTOWN HALL CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.8	A	NY	TARRYTOWN	120	—
6459	COTTAGES AT ROCKMART, THE	1.2%	61.8	C	GA	ROCKMART	116	—
6460	BEND TRANSITIONAL CARE	1.2%	61.8	A	OR	BEND	60	—
6461	DELHI REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.2%	61.8	A	NY	DELHI	176	—
6462	HAYM SOLOMON HOME FOR THE AGED	1.2%	61.8	A	NY	BROOKLYN	240	—
6463	PATHWAYS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.2%	61.8	A	NY	NISKAYUNA	112	—
6464	Sudbury Pines Extended Care	1.2%	61.7	A	MA	SUDBURY	92	—
6465	TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE AUTUMN GROVE CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.7	C	PA	HARRISVILLE	103	—
6466	RIVER VIEW REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.7	B	NY	OWEGO	77	—
6467	VALLEY VIEW CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.7	F	TX	ANSON	36	—
6468	WILLOWS OF SHELBYVILLE	1.2%	61.7	B	IN	SHELBYVILLE	121	MAJOR HOSPITAL
6469	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF MADISON	1.2%	61.7	F	TN	MADISON	102	—
6470	STILLHOUSE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.2%	61.7	C	TX	PARIS	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6471	KENSINGTON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.2%	61.7	A	AL	MOBILE	120	—
6472	Maywood Acres Healthcare	1.2%	61.7	B	CA	Oxnard	98	—
6473	The Citadel at Saint Joseph Village	1.2%	61.7	C	IL	FREEPORT	124	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
6474	MASSAPEQUA CENTER REHABILITATION & NURSING	1.2%	61.7	A	NY	AMITYVILLE	320	—
6475	ALLEGRIA NURSING & REHAB CENTER OF PORT JEFFERSON	1.2%	61.7	B	NY	PORT JEFFERSON STATI	143	—
6476	NORTHEAST CTR FOR REHABILITATION AND BRAIN INJURY	1.2%	61.7	D	NY	LAKE KATRINE	280	—
6477	Avera Creighton Care Centre	1.2%	61.7	A	NE	Creighton	47	AVERA HEALTH
6478	MILNER COMMUNITY HEALTH CARE	1.2%	61.7	A	IN	ROSSVILLE	80	MAJOR HOSPITAL
6479	PHILADELPHIA NURSING HOME	1.2%	61.7	F	PA	PHILADELPHIA	402	—
6480	Dunlap Specialty Care	1.2%	61.7	D	IA	Dunlap	46	CARE INITIATIVES
6481	CENTINELA GRAND INC	1.2%	61.7	A	CA	PERRIS	109	—
6482	Cloverlodge Care Center	1.2%	61.7	A	NE	St Edward	47	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
6483	WILKINSON COUNTY SENIOR CARE	1.2%	61.6	A	MS	CENTREVILLE	60	—
6484	TRINITY HOSPITAL SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	1.2%	61.6	A	CA	WEAVERVILLE	13	—
6485	Medicine Wheel Village	1.2%	61.6	C	SD	EAGLE BUTTE	50	—
6486	WEST HAVEN CENTER FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	1.2%	61.6	B	CT	WEST HAVEN	98	—
6487	Good Samaritan - Villisca	1.2%	61.6	A	IA	Villisca	46	SANFORD
6488	BRIDGE VIEW NURSING HOME	1.2%	61.6	C	NY	WHITESTONE	200	—
6489	CENTER AT NORTHRIDGE, LLC, THE	1.2%	61.6	A	CO	WESTMINSTER	96	—
6490	LAKESIDE SPECIAL CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.6	A	CA	LAKESIDE	94	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
6491	(CLOSED) VIVIANT HEALTHCARE OF BRISTOL	1.2%	61.6	C	TN	BRISTOL	130	—
6492	LAVACA BAY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.2%	61.6	C	TX	PORT LAVACA	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6493	PRAIRIE ACRES	1.2%	61.6	B	TX	FRIONA	0	—
6494	WESTVIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.2%	61.6	A	CT	DAYVILLE	103	—
6495	THE SPRINGS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.2%	61.6	B	CA	MURRIETA	170	—
6496	RIVERSIDE HEIGHTS HEALTHCARE CENTER, LLC	1.2%	61.6	A	CA	RIVERSIDE	70	—
6497	NORTHFIELD CARE CENTER INC	1.2%	61.5	B	MN	NORTHFIELD	42	—
6498	THE RIVERSIDE	1.2%	61.5	A	NY	NEW YORK	520	—
6499	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY NEW UNDERWOOD	1.2%	61.5	C	SD	NEW UNDERWOOD	41	SANFORD
6500	PROMEDICA SKILLED NURSING AH	1.2%	61.5	F	IL	ARLINGTON HTS	151	—

Showing 6,451–6,500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.