Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,501–6,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6501	ROSS MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE CTR	1.2%	61.5	A	GA	KENNESAW	100	—
6502	DAUGHTERS OF ISRAEL PLEASANT VALLEY HOME	1.2%	61.5	B	NJ	WEST ORANGE	303	—
6503	Beaconshire Nursing Centre	1.2%	61.5	A	MI	Detroit	99	—
6504	ASHTON PLACE HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	1.2%	61.5	A	AR	BARLING	122	—
6505	IMPERIAL HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.1%	61.5	A	CA	LA MIRADA	99	—
6506	HOLLYWOOD PRESBYTERIAN MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	1.1%	61.5	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	89	—
6507	SUNNY SPRINGS NURSING & REHAB	1.1%	61.5	C	TX	SULPHUR SPRINGS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6508	TIERRA ROSE CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.5	A	OR	SALEM	76	—
6509	MOUNTAIN MANOR SENIOR RESIDENCE	1.1%	61.5	C	CA	CARMICHAEL	47	—
6510	Fond du Lac Lutheran Home	1.1%	61.5	C	WI	Fond du Lac	85	ILLUMINUS INC
6511	BERKELEY PINES SKILLED NURSING CENTER	1.1%	61.5	A	CA	BERKELEY	36	—
6512	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY INVER GROVE HEIGHTS	1.1%	61.5	C	MN	INVER GROVE HEIGHTS	46	SANFORD
6513	MIDDLETOWN PARK REHAB & HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.5	B	NY	MIDDLETOWN	230	—
6514	GOLDEN GATE REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.5	C	NY	STATEN ISLAND	238	—
6515	Greenwood Transitional Rehabilitation Unit	1.1%	61.5	A	SC	Greenwood	12	EPOCH ACQUISITION INC
6516	AVANTARA ARMOUR	1.1%	61.3	F	SD	ARMOUR	45	—
6517	GARDEN PARK CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.3	A	CA	GARDEN GROVE	124	—
6518	The Legacy Living and Rehabilitation Center	1.1%	61.3	D	WY	Gillette	160	—
6519	Saint Joseph of the Pines Health Center	1.1%	61.3	B	NC	Pinehurst	176	TRINITY CONTINUING CARE SERVICES
6520	MONTEZUMA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.1%	61.3	B	GA	MONTEZUMA	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6521	SMITHTOWN CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING CARE	1.1%	61.3	B	NY	SMITHTOWN	162	—
6522	WATERS OF MUNCIE, THE	1.1%	61.3	B	IN	MUNCIE	72	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6523	LINDALE HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.1%	61.3	D	TX	LINDALE	80	—
6524	CHERRY BLOSSOM HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.1%	61.3	B	GA	MACON	82	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6525	Belle Plaine Specialty Care	1.1%	61.3	A	IA	Belle Plaine	46	CARE INITIATIVES
6526	Cedar Crest Nursing Centre Inc	1.1%	61.3	B	RI	Cranston	156	—
6527	NORTH VALLEY NURSING CENTER	1.1%	61.3	F	CA	TUJUNGA	92	—
6528	Penfield Place	1.1%	61.3	A	NY	Penfield	48	—
6529	DOWNEY COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER	1.1%	61.3	A	CA	DOWNEY	198	—
6530	COLONEL GLENN HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	1.1%	61.3	C	AR	LITTLE ROCK	120	—
6531	TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT AT NAZARETH HOSPITAL	1.1%	61.3	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	28	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
6532	BELVEDERE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	1.1%	61.3	C	AR	HOT SPRINGS	119	—
6533	REGAL HEIGHTS HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTER	1.1%	61.3	A	DE	HOCKESSIN	172	—
6534	WATERFORD PLACE HEALTH CAMPUS	1.1%	61.3	B	IN	KOKOMO	103	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
6535	ROSEWALK VILLAGE	1.1%	61.3	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	140	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6536	QHC WINTERSET NORTH, LLC	1.1%	61.3	F	IA	WINTERSET	75	—
6537	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY ARLINGTON	1.1%	61.3	B	MN	ARLINGTON	27	—
6538	COLLEGE STREET HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.2	B	TX	BEAUMONT	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
6539	HEALTHCARE CENTER AT WITTENBERG VILLAGE	1.1%	61.2	F	IN	CROWN POINT	155	—
6540	Encino Hospital Medical Center D/P SNF	1.1%	61.2	A	CA	ENCINO	28	PRIME HEALTHCARE FOUNDATION INC
6541	ROCHELLE REHAB & HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.2	C	IL	ROCHELLE	50	—
6542	MAJESTIC CENTER FOR REHAB & SUB-ACUTE CARE	1.1%	61.2	C	NJ	CAMDEN	120	—
6543	BROOKHAVEN REHAB & HEALTH CARE CENTER L L C	1.1%	61.2	B	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	298	—
6544	LUTHERAN CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.2	C	IL	ALTAMONT	96	ST JOHN LUTHERAN CHURCH
6545	LEMAY AVENUE HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	1.1%	61.2	A	CO	FORT COLLINS	130	—
6546	Geneva Lake Manor	1.1%	61.2	C	WI	LAKE GENEVA	60	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
6547	GOOD SHEPHERD HEALTH CARE CENTER OF SANTA MONICA	1.1%	61.2	D	CA	SANTA MONICA	48	—
6548	FOX SUBACUTE CENTER	1.1%	61.2	F	PA	WARRINGTON	60	—
6549	NHC Healthcare - Mauldin	1.1%	61.2	A	SC	Greenville	180	—
6550	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - PARK RIVER	1.1%	61.2	C	ND	PARK RIVER	44	SANFORD

Showing 6,501–6,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.