Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,551–6,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6551	Mescalero Care Center	1.1%	61.2	D	NM	Mescalero	40	—
6552	AZALEA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.1%	61.2	B	GA	METTER	89	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6553	J G ALEXANDER NURSING CENTER	1.1%	61.2	B	MS	UNION	60	—
6554	LUTHERAN RETIREMENT HOME	1.1%	61.2	C	NY	JAMESTOWN	148	—
6555	PONDEROSA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	61.2	F	TX	DE KALB	110	—
6556	HAMPTON COURT NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	61.2	A	FL	NORTH MIAMI BEACH	120	—
6557	FRANKFORT COMMUNITY CARE HOME	1.1%	61.2	C	KS	FRANKFORT	40	—
6558	RYDER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC	1.1%	61.2	B	PR	HUMACAO	62	RYDER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC
6559	MASON HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.2	D	IN	WARSAW	105	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
6560	HIALEAH SHORES NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.1%	61.2	A	FL	MIAMI	106	—
6561	Merced Behavioral Center	1.1%	61.2	A	CA	MERCED	96	—
6562	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF CARRABELLE	1.1%	61.2	C	FL	CARRABELLE	74	—
6563	VALPARAISO CARE & REHABILITATION	1.1%	61.1	C	IN	VALPARAISO	164	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6564	WILSON NURSING CENTER	1.1%	61.1	—	OK	WILSON	70	—
6565	HILLSIDE HEIGHTS REHABILITATION SUITES	1.1%	61.1	C	TX	AMARILLO	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6566	WIBAUX COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.1%	61.1	F	MT	WIBAUX	40	—
6567	LEGACY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.1%	61.1	C	GA	GREENSBORO	50	—
6568	BROOKLYN-QUEENS NURSING HOME	1.1%	61.1	C	NY	BROOKLYN	140	—
6569	ANNIE'S GARDEN SKILLED NURSING	1.1%	61.1	—	MO	SIKESTON	75	PARADIGM REHAB SERVICES LLC
6570	RANCH TERRACE NURSING HOME	1.1%	61.1	—	OK	SAPULPA	85	—
6571	ALL SAINTS HEALTHCARE SUBACUTE	1.1%	61.1	A	CA	NORTH HOLLYWOOD	128	—
6572	REGO PARK NURSING HOME	1.1%	61.0	B	NY	FLUSHING	200	—
6573	MADIGAN ESTATES	1.1%	61.0	B	ME	HOULTON	99	—
6574	LUTHERAN HOME AT TOPTON, THE	1.1%	61.0	B	PA	TOPTON	194	DIAKON
6575	WHITE RIVER LODGE	1.1%	61.0	A	IN	BEDFORD	74	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
6576	GOWANDA REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.1%	61.0	A	NY	GOWANDA	160	—
6577	RIVERWALK VILLAGE	1.1%	61.0	C	IN	NOBLESVILLE	169	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6578	Special Tree Neurocare Center	1.1%	61.0	A	MI	Romulus	4	—
6579	TOUCHSTONE HEALTHCARE COMMUNITY	1.1%	61.0	F	IA	SIOUX CITY	125	—
6580	Atlantic Specialty Care	1.1%	61.0	C	IA	Atlantic	90	CARE INITIATIVES
6581	THE GRAND PAVILION FOR RHB & NRSG AT ROCKVILLE CTR	1.1%	61.0	B	NY	ROCKVILLE CENTRE	158	—
6582	MONTEREY PARK CONV HOSP	1.1%	61.0	B	CA	MONTEREY PARK	89	—
6583	Focused Care at Hogan Park	1.1%	61.0	C	TX	Midland	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
6584	ROSECRANS CARE CENTER	1.1%	61.0	B	CA	GARDENA	106	—
6585	OHIO VETERANS HOME	1.1%	61.0	A	OH	SANDUSKY	427	STATE OF OHIO OFFICE OF BUDGET AND MANAGEMENT STATE ACCOUNTING
6586	SILEX COMMUNITY CARE	1.1%	61.0	B	MO	SILEX	60	—
6587	Roberts Health Centre Inc	1.1%	61.0	A	RI	North Kingstown	66	—
6588	FULTON CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	1.1%	61.0	B	NY	GLOVERSVILLE	176	—
6589	SPARTA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.1%	61.0	A	GA	SPARTA	81	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6590	THE PHOENIX REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.1%	60.9	A	NY	BROOKLYN	400	—
6591	Hickory Heights Health And Rehab, Llc	1.1%	60.9	A	AR	LITTLE ROCK	110	—
6592	REGENCY HEALTH CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	60.9	B	AL	HUNTSVILLE	90	—
6593	Bedford Specialty Care	1.1%	60.9	A	IA	Bedford	39	CARE INITIATIVES
6594	BROOKE HAVEN HEALTHCARE	1.1%	60.9	D	MO	WEST PLAINS	120	WILLOW HEALTH CARE INC
6595	BELMONT HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.1%	60.9	B	CA	BELMONT	74	—
6596	Coryell Health Rehab Living at the Meadows	1.1%	60.9	B	TX	Gatesville	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6597	HUNTINGTON HILLS CTR FOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.1%	60.9	B	NY	MELVILLE	320	—
6598	BETHANY GARDENS SKILLED LIVING CENTER	1.1%	60.9	A	NY	ROME	100	—
6599	IVY AT GREAT FALLS	1.1%	60.9	D	MT	GREAT FALLS	278	—
6600	SOUTHBROOKE MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTE	1.1%	60.9	C	TX	EDNA	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC

Showing 6,551–6,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.