Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,601–6,650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6601	ELLICOTT CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.1%	60.9	B	NY	BUFFALO	160	—
6602	HICKORY CREEK AT COLUMBUS	1.1%	60.9	A	IN	COLUMBUS	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6603	MIAMI SHORES NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.1%	60.9	A	FL	MIAMI	99	—
6604	HAMILTON GROVE	1.1%	60.9	C	IN	NEW CARLISLE	85	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
6605	FT LAUDERDALE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	60.9	A	FL	FORT LAUDERDALE	169	—
6606	MAPLE LAWN NURSING HOME	1.1%	60.9	B	MO	PALMYRA	110	—
6607	McAuley Rehabilitation and Wellness	1.1%	60.9	D	MI	Muskegon	98	—
6608	CALVARY FELLOWSHIP HOMES INC	1.1%	60.9	B	PA	LANCASTER	45	—
6609	MAJESTIC CARE OF TERRE HAUTE	1.1%	60.9	B	IN	TERRE HAUTE	104	MAJOR HOSPITAL
6610	TRUCARE LIVING CENTERS	1.1%	60.9	A	TX	PALESTINE	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6611	NEIGHBORS - CENTRAL NEIGHBORHOOD (THE)	1.1%	60.9	A	WI	MENOMONIE	45	COUNTY OF DUNN
6612	ASCENSION LIVING ALEXIAN VILLAGE TENNESSEE	1.1%	60.9	C	TN	SIGNAL MOUNTAIN	114	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
6613	ADAMS WOODCREST	1.1%	60.9	B	IN	DECATUR	143	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6614	THE HAMLET REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER AT	1.1%	60.9	C	NY	NESCONSET	240	—
6615	LINDEN PONDS	1.1%	60.9	A	MA	HINGHAM	132	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
6616	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - PARSONS	1.1%	60.9	A	KS	PARSONS	45	SANFORD
6617	Ussery Roan Texas State Veterans Home	1.1%	60.9	C	TX	Amarillo	120	—
6618	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - HUTCHINSON VILLAGE	1.1%	60.8	C	KS	HUTCHINSON	65	SANFORD
6619	BICKFORD HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.1%	60.8	C	CT	WINDSOR LOCKS	48	—
6620	Eldora Specialty Care	1.1%	60.8	A	IA	Eldora	46	CARE INITIATIVES
6621	H & J VONDERLIETH LVG CTR, THE	1.1%	60.8	B	IL	MOUNT PULASKI	90	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
6622	CLEAR VIEW CONVALESCENT CENTER	1.1%	60.7	A	CA	GARDENA	99	—
6623	AVALON CARE CENTER - PORTLAND	1.1%	60.7	A	OR	PORTLAND	40	—
6624	Sylvan Court	1.1%	60.7	C	MN	CANBY	53	SANFORD
6625	Cherokee Specialty Care	1.1%	60.7	B	IA	Cherokee	62	CARE INITIATIVES
6626	John J Kane Regional Center-Mc	1.1%	60.7	D	PA	MCKEESPORT	360	—
6627	PROVIDENCE CARE CENTER	1.1%	60.7	C	OH	SANDUSKY	138	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
6628	GRANDELL REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.1%	60.7	A	NY	LONG BEACH	278	—
6629	COLFAX HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	60.7	C	WI	COLFAX	28	—
6630	SPRINGS AT PACIFIC REGENT, THE	1.1%	60.7	D	WA	BELLEVUE	54	—
6631	ALHAMBRA HOSPITAL MED CTR DP/SNF	1.1%	60.7	A	CA	ALHAMBRA	26	AHMC INC
6632	HALE OLA KINO	1.1%	60.7	C	HI	HONOLULU	32	—
6633	CLINTON GARDENS	1.1%	60.7	B	IN	CLINTON	100	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6634	BELLAKEN SKILLED NURSING CENTER	1.1%	60.7	A	CA	OAKLAND	61	—
6635	BRIDGEWATER CENTER FOR REHAB & NURSING L L C	1.1%	60.7	C	NY	BINGHAMTON	356	—
6636	REGENT CARE CENTER OAKWELL FARMS	1.1%	60.7	D	TX	SAN ANTONIO	194	—
6637	THE PINES AT POUGHKEEPSIE CTR FOR NURSING & REHAB	1.1%	60.7	B	NY	POUGHKEEPSIE	200	—
6638	Alpine Village Retirement Center	1.1%	60.7	A	NE	Verdigre	45	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
6639	ROHR HOME, THE	1.1%	60.7	F	FL	BARTOW	60	—
6640	DUMONT WELLNESS CENTER	1.1%	60.7	D	IA	DUMONT	38	—
6641	COX MEDICAL CENTERS MEYER ORTHOPEDIC AND SURGICAL	1.1%	60.7	A	MO	SPRINGFIELD	28	COXHEALTH
6642	OWEN VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.1%	60.7	C	IN	SPENCER	113	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
6643	Bellarose Nursing And Rehab	1.1%	60.7	A	NC	Garner	100	—
6644	Parkview Haven Nursing Home	1.1%	60.7	B	NE	Deshler	49	—
6645	MENNONITE HOME	1.1%	60.7	B	OR	ALBANY	95	—
6646	SPRINGHILL VILLAGE	1.1%	60.7	A	IN	TERRE HAUTE	99	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6647	CARMEL HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	1.1%	60.7	C	IN	CARMEL	188	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
6648	THE VISTA AT BLUE SKIES OF TEXAS WEST	1.1%	60.7	F	TX	SAN ANTONIO	64	—
6649	Good Samaritan Society - Newell	1.1%	60.7	F	IA	NEWELL	45	—
6650	JORDAN CREEK NURSING & REHAB	1.1%	60.7	F	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	—

Showing 6,601–6,650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.