Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,651–6,700

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6651	PIONEER HEALTH AND REHAB	1.1%	60.7	C	WI	PRAIRIE FARM	30	—
6652	PAOLI HEALTH AND LIVING COMMUNITY	1.1%	60.6	D	IN	PAOLI	109	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
6653	MOWEAQUA REHAB & HCC	1.1%	60.6	B	IL	MOWEAQUA	70	—
6654	SCHERVIER PAVILION	1.1%	60.6	C	NY	WARWICK	120	BON SECOURS MERCY HEALTH INC
6655	TIVOLI AT DIVINE SAVIOR HEALTHCARE	1.1%	60.6	—	WI	PORTAGE	83	—
6656	BENTLEYS EXTENDED CARE	1.1%	60.6	C	MO	OVERLAND	72	—
6657	GOOD SHEPHERD CARE CENTER	1.1%	60.6	B	MO	VERSAILLES	117	—
6658	NORTH WOODS VILLAGE	1.1%	60.6	C	IN	KOKOMO	155	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6659	FREDERICK LIVING - CEDARWOOD	1.1%	60.6	A	PA	FREDERICK	61	COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
6660	PENN HIGHLANDS JEFFERSON MANOR	1.1%	60.6	C	PA	BROOKVILLE	160	PENN HIGHLANDS HEALTHCARE INC
6661	THE REDWOODS POST-ACUTE	1.1%	60.6	A	CA	SAN JOSE	152	—
6662	Bertrand Nursing Home	1.1%	60.6	C	NE	Bertrand	26	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
6663	BAPTIST HOMES OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA	1.1%	60.6	D	PA	PITTSBURGH	126	—
6664	VILLA CREST, LLC	1.0%	60.5	C	PA	JOHNSTOWN	26	—
6665	OTTERBEIN FRANKLIN SENIORLIFE COMM RES & COM CARE	1.0%	60.5	B	IN	FRANKLIN	208	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
6666	BAYWOODS OF ANNAPOLIS	1.0%	60.5	C	MD	ANNAPOLIS	27	—
6667	Bastrop Lost Pines Nursing and Rehabilitation Cent	1.0%	60.5	C	TX	Bastrop	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6668	The Wartburg Home	1.0%	60.5	B	NY	MOUNT VERNON	210	—
6669	EL REPOSO NURSING FACILITY	1.0%	60.5	A	AL	FLORENCE	60	—
6670	Odebolt Specialty Care	1.0%	60.5	B	IA	Odebolt	38	CARE INITIATIVES
6671	BLOOMSBURG CARE CENTER AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.0%	60.5	F	PA	BLOOMSBURG	149	—
6672	BERKELEY RETIREMENT HOME,THE	1.0%	60.5	C	MA	LAWRENCE	44	—
6673	GREENCROFT HEALTHCARE	1.0%	60.5	B	IN	GOSHEN	214	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
6674	HOOSIER VILLAGE	1.0%	60.5	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	24	BHI SENIOR LIVING INC
6675	PRINCE OF PEACE CARE CENTER	1.0%	60.5	A	ND	ELLENDALE	55	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
6676	SUNNYVIEW NURSING HOME & APARTMENTS	1.0%	60.5	C	MO	TRENTON	94	—
6677	MARINA GARDEN NURSING CENTER	1.0%	60.5	A	CA	ALAMEDA	32	—
6678	Bethany Home	1.0%	60.5	A	IA	Dubuque	66	—
6679	First Care Living Center	1.0%	60.5	A	MN	FOSSTON	50	ESSENTIA HEALTH
6680	CUERO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.0%	60.5	D	TX	CUERO	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6681	GRACE HEALTHCARE OF OREGON	1.0%	60.5	C	WI	OREGON	30	—
6682	WHITE MEMORIAL MEDICAL CTR DP	1.0%	60.5	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	27	ADVENTIST HEALTH SYSTEM WEST
6683	WATERS OF GREENCASTLE, THE	1.0%	60.4	C	IN	GREENCASTLE	100	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
6684	CROSSROADS CARE CENTER	1.0%	60.4	C	MN	WORTHINGTON	52	—
6685	NESS COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU DBA CEDAR VILLAGE	1.0%	60.4	A	KS	NESS CITY	30	—
6686	REHAB AT SHANNONDELL	1.0%	60.4	A	PA	AUDUBON	120	—
6687	GUNDERSEN HARMONY CARE CENTER	1.0%	60.4	B	MN	HARMONY	42	BELLIN GUNDERSEN HEALTH SYSTEM INC
6688	The Neighborhood in Rio Rancho	1.0%	60.4	C	NM	Rio Rancho	72	HAVERLAND CARTER LIFESTYLE GROUP OPERATING LLC
6689	SOUTHERN OAKS THERAPY AND LIVING CENTER	1.0%	60.4	D	TX	DALLAS	150	—
6690	RUTH WILSON HURLEY MANOR	1.0%	60.4	A	OK	COALGATE	75	—
6691	BEECH GROVE MEADOWS	1.0%	60.4	C	IN	BEECH GROVE	118	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6692	WAYCROSS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.0%	60.4	B	GA	WAYCROSS	92	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6693	Veterans Home Of California - Redding	1.0%	60.3	B	CA	REDDING	60	DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
6694	Longview Hill Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.0%	60.3	D	TX	Longview	0	HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6695	COURTYARD GARDENS	1.0%	60.3	C	TX	WICHITA FALLS	109	—
6696	Uintah Health Care Special Service District	1.0%	60.3	B	UT	Vernal	110	—
6697	LODGE OF THE WABASH	1.0%	60.3	B	IN	VINCENNES	70	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
6698	HOPKINS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	1.0%	60.3	A	NY	BROOKLYN	288	—
6699	WEIRTON GERIATRIC CENTER	1.0%	60.3	A	WV	WEIRTON	137	—
6700	LLANO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.0%	60.3	D	TX	LLANO	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY

Showing 6,651–6,700 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.