Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,701–6,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6701	Liberty Commons	1.0%	60.3	A	MA	NORTH CHATHAM	132	—
6702	AVENTURA AT TERRACE VIEW	1.0%	60.3	D	PA	PECKVILLE	272	—
6703	ROLLING MEADOWS	1.0%	60.3	B	TX	WICHITA FALLS	86	—
6704	ACCOLADE HC OF EAST PEORIA	1.0%	60.3	C	IL	EAST PEORIA	71	—
6705	ODD FELLOW-REBEKAH HOME	1.0%	60.3	C	IL	MATTOON	162	—
6706	TRAYMORE NURSING CENTER	1.0%	60.3	D	TX	DALLAS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6707	Lamoni Specialty Care	1.0%	60.3	B	IA	Lamoni	43	CARE INITIATIVES
6708	NARRAGUAGUS BAY HEALTH CARE FACILITY	1.0%	60.2	B	ME	MILBRIDGE	35	—
6709	Rocky Mountain Care - The Lodge	1.0%	60.2	D	UT	Heber City	92	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
6710	SIMPSON HOUSE INC	1.0%	60.2	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	142	—
6711	Montezuma Specialty Care	1.0%	60.2	B	IA	Montezuma	41	CARE INITIATIVES
6712	BONHAM NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.0%	60.2	B	PA	STILLWATER	77	—
6713	ASPIRUS PLEASANT VIEW	1.0%	60.2	F	WI	PHILLIPS	50	—
6714	CONTINUING CARE AT BROOKSBY VILLAGE	1.0%	60.2	A	MA	PEABODY	104	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
6715	VISTA PACIFICA CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	1.0%	60.2	A	CA	JURUPA VALLEY	49	—
6716	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ELLIS	1.0%	60.2	B	KS	ELLIS	42	SANFORD
6717	TEMPLE PARK CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	1.0%	60.2	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	—
6718	GRACEWOOD NSG FACILITY(UNIT 9)	1.0%	60.2	A	GA	GRACEWOOD	56	—
6719	Thorne Crest Retirement Center	1.0%	60.2	D	MN	ALBERT LEA	52	—
6720	COTTAGES OF LAKE ST LOUIS	1.0%	60.2	A	MO	LAKE SAINT LOUIS	60	—
6721	BORO PARK CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	1.0%	60.2	A	NY	BROOKLYN	510	—
6722	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT ST ANDREWS ESTATES	1.0%	60.2	A	FL	BOCA RATON	89	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6723	CAMELLIA HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.0%	60.2	B	GA	CLAXTON	70	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6724	NEWTON PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	1.0%	60.2	B	KS	NEWTON	60	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
6725	GRINNELL HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.0%	60.2	F	IA	GRINNELL	60	—
6726	RIVERSIDE CARE CENTER	1.0%	60.2	A	FL	MIAMI	120	—
6727	Vermont Veterans' Home	1.0%	60.2	A	VT	Bennington	177	—
6728	Nye Summit	1.0%	60.2	B	NE	Louisville	61	—
6729	Marian Manor Of Taunton	1.0%	60.2	C	MA	TAUNTON	116	—
6730	Brenham Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.0%	60.2	D	TX	Brenham	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6731	ARLINGTON VILLAS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CEN	1.0%	60.2	D	TX	ARLINGTON	168	—
6732	CASCADE MANOR	1.0%	60.2	B	OR	EUGENE	32	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
6733	Covington's Convalescent Center	1.0%	60.1	B	KY	Hopkinsville	72	—
6734	CLEARVISTA LAKE HEALTH CAMPUS	1.0%	60.1	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	70	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6735	OAK GROVE CHRISTIAN RETIREMENT VILLAGE	1.0%	60.1	C	IN	DEMOTTE	73	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
6736	Ravenwood Specialty Care	1.0%	60.1	D	IA	Waterloo	176	CARE INITIATIVES
6737	Brookside Care Center	1.0%	60.1	B	WI	KENOSHA	154	—
6738	EAST LOS ANGELES DOCTORS HOSP	1.0%	60.1	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	25	AVANTI HOSPITALS LLC
6739	St Mary Health Care Center	1.0%	60.1	A	MA	WORCESTER	172	COVENANT HEALTH
6740	Good Samaritan - George	1.0%	60.1	D	IA	George	36	SANFORD
6741	AVERA MARYHOUSE LONG TERM CARE	1.0%	60.1	A	SD	PIERRE	80	AVERA HEALTH
6742	THRIVE OF LISLE	1.0%	60.1	B	IL	LISLE	28	LOCKWOOD INVESTMENTS LLC
6743	UNIVERSITY REHAB	1.0%	60.1	D	IL	URBANA	243	—
6744	ODEM AT AUGLAIZE	1.0%	60.1	C	OH	WAPAKONETA	78	—
6745	PRESBYTERIAN HOME FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK INC	1.0%	60.1	A	NY	NEW HARTFORD	242	—
6746	GROVE AT KIRKWOOD, THE	1.0%	60.1	D	MO	KIRKWOOD	117	—
6747	Good Samaritan - Algona	1.0%	60.1	D	IA	Algona	72	SANFORD
6748	Good Samaritan - Manson	1.0%	60.1	B	IA	Manson	42	SANFORD
6749	Fort Worth Transitional Care Center	1.0%	60.1	F	TX	Fort Worth	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6750	PIONEER MEMORIAL CARE CENTER	1.0%	60.0	D	MN	ERSKINE	58	—

Showing 6,701–6,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.