Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,001–6,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6001	DUGAN MEMORIAL HOME	1.5%	64.4	A	MS	WEST POINT	60	—
6002	MARSHALL MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.4	B	TX	MARSHALL	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6003	MORTON BAKAR CENTER	1.5%	64.4	A	CA	HAYWARD	97	—
6004	CHERRYDALE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.4	C	VA	ARLINGTON	210	—
6005	St. Margaret's Daughters Home	1.5%	64.4	A	LA	NEW ORLEANS	112	—
6006	CENTRE AVENUE HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	1.5%	64.4	C	CO	FORT COLLINS	90	COLUMBINE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6007	TAMARAC CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING	1.5%	64.4	A	FL	TAMARAC	120	—
6008	COLONIAL PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.5%	64.4	F	NY	ROME	80	—
6009	THE GRAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT BATAVIA	1.5%	64.4	B	NY	BATAVIA	62	—
6010	AVIATA AT JACKSONVILLE	1.5%	64.4	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE	116	—
6011	HAMPTON PLACE HEALTHCARE, LLC	1.5%	64.4	B	AR	ROGERS	140	—
6012	CORDOVA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	1.5%	64.4	B	AL	CORDOVA	114	—
6013	SEASONS NURSING AND REHAB	1.5%	64.4	A	OH	STOW	50	—
6014	LIGHTHOUSE HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.5%	64.4	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	149	PACIFIC HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
6015	SKYLINE TERRACE CONV HOME	1.5%	64.4	A	VA	WOODSTOCK	70	—
6016	PRESTONWOOD REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER INC	1.5%	64.4	B	TX	PLANO	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6017	Good Samaritan - West Union	1.5%	64.4	C	IA	West Union	52	SANFORD
6018	BELMONT MANOR	1.5%	64.4	A	OH	ST CLAIRSVILLE	57	—
6019	Westmoreland Manor	1.5%	64.4	C	PA	GREENSBURG	408	CHR CONSULTING SERVICES INC
6020	MISSION CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.4	A	CA	RIVERSIDE	40	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
6021	ROSSMOOR POST ACUTE	1.5%	64.3	A	CA	WALNUT CREEK	155	HCR HEALTHCARE LLC
6022	SHELBY RIDGE NURSING HOME	1.5%	64.3	A	AL	ALABASTER	131	SCHMIDT WALLACE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
6023	Clapps Nursing Center Inc	1.5%	64.3	B	NC	Pleasant Garden	118	—
6024	Ridgecrest Village	1.5%	64.3	B	IA	Davenport	137	—
6025	COMER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.5%	64.3	B	GA	COMER	116	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6026	Shandin Hills Behavior Therapy Center	1.5%	64.3	C	CA	San Bernardino	78	—
6027	STEPHENSON NURSING CENTER	1.5%	64.3	B	IL	FREEPORT	148	—
6028	THE FOUNTAINS AT CANTERBURY	1.5%	64.3	D	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	97	—
6029	Harbor Post Acute Center	1.5%	64.3	D	MI	Wyoming	65	—
6030	WELLSVILLE MANOR	1.5%	64.3	A	KS	WELLSVILLE	51	JOYA LIVING & HEALTHCARE INC
6031	NORRIS SQUARE	1.5%	64.3	A	MN	COTTAGE GROVE	72	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
6032	BAYONNE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL	1.5%	64.3	A	NJ	BAYONNE	17	—
6033	OAK VIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.3	A	FL	ORANGE PARK	120	—
6034	HEALTH CARE INC	1.5%	64.3	A	AL	ASHVILLE	53	—
6035	SANTA ANITA CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	1.5%	64.3	D	CA	TEMPLE CITY	391	—
6036	PINE CREST GUEST HOME INC	1.5%	64.3	A	MS	HAZLEHURST	55	—
6037	BROOKLYN CENTER FOR REHAB AND RESIDENTIAL HEALTH C	1.5%	64.3	A	NY	BROOKLYN	281	—
6038	PORT LAVACA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.3	C	TX	PORT LAVACA	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6039	OAKWOOD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.2	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	148	—
6040	VISTA DEL SOL CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.2	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	50	—
6041	GARDENVIEW MANOR	1.5%	64.2	C	IL	DANVILLE	213	—
6042	Conover Nursing And Rehabilitation Center	1.5%	64.2	A	NC	Conover	90	—
6043	NIAGARA REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.5%	64.2	A	NY	NIAGARA FALLS	160	—
6044	RUSSELLVILLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.2	B	AR	RUSSELLVILLE	100	—
6045	MCKNIGHT PLACE EXTENDED CARE	1.5%	64.2	A	MO	SAINT LOUIS	70	—
6046	SAPPHIRE CENTER FOR REHAB & NURSING	1.5%	64.2	C	NY	FLUSHING	227	—
6047	MT AIRY GARDENS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.5%	64.2	B	OH	CINCINNATI	99	—
6048	Rennes Health and Rehab Center-East	1.5%	64.2	A	WI	Peshtigo	50	—
6049	Folsom Care Center	1.4%	64.1	A	CA	Folsom	99	—
6050	COLONIAL HEALTH & REHAB CENTER OF PLAINFIELD, LLC	1.4%	64.1	A	CT	PLAINFIELD	90	—

Showing 6,001–6,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.