Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,951–6,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5951	PINE TRAIL NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	1.5%	64.8	C	FL	LAKE WORTH	52	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
5952	SOUTH ORANGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.8	A	FL	ORLANDO	115	FL HC OPCO LLC
5953	MARY, QUEEN AND MOTHER CENTER	1.5%	64.7	D	MO	SHREWSBURY	217	—
5954	ST JAMES REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.5%	64.7	B	NY	ST JAMES	230	—
5955	DREIER'S NURSING CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.7	B	CA	GLENDALE	52	—
5956	MONTGOMERY CHILDREN'S SPECIALTY CENTER	1.5%	64.7	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	54	—
5957	The Grand Rehabilitation and Nursing At Pawling	1.5%	64.7	B	NY	PAWLING	122	—
5958	WINGATE AT SILVER LAKE	1.5%	64.7	B	MA	KINGSTON	164	—
5959	Skyland Care Center	1.5%	64.7	A	NC	Sylva	94	—
5960	ASTORIA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.7	B	FL	WINTER HAVEN	132	TENDER LOVING CARE MANAGEMENT INC
5961	Eventide Williamsburg	1.5%	64.7	B	NE	Lincoln	50	EVENTIDE
5962	Sherwood Nursing & Rehabilitation Center, Inc	1.5%	64.7	B	AR	Sherwood	98	—
5963	ROBINSON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	1.5%	64.7	B	AR	NORTH LITTLE ROCK	110	—
5964	ABIGAIL HOUSE FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	1.5%	64.7	B	NJ	CAMDEN	188	—
5965	APPLE REHAB MIDDLETOWN	1.5%	64.7	C	CT	MIDDLETOWN	70	—
5966	Clapp's Convalescent Nursing Home Inc	1.5%	64.7	A	NC	Asheboro	96	—
5967	Promontory Point Rehabilitation	1.5%	64.7	A	ID	Ammon	50	—
5968	Diamondback Healthcare Center	1.5%	64.6	D	AZ	PHOENIX	94	—
5969	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT BUCKS HILL	1.5%	64.6	B	CT	WATERBURY	90	—
5970	IGNITE MEDICAL MCHENRY	1.5%	64.6	C	IL	MCHENRY	84	—
5971	LANDMARK MEDICAL CENTER	1.5%	64.6	B	CA	POMONA	95	—
5972	PLEASANT VIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.6	A	OH	BARBERTON	121	—
5973	SOUTHWOOD AT NORWELL NURSING CTR	1.5%	64.6	A	MA	NORWELL	142	—
5974	CHARLESGATE NURSING CENTER	1.5%	64.6	D	RI	PROVIDENCE	120	—
5975	HALE OLA KINO BY ARCADIA	1.5%	64.6	A	HI	HON	32	ARCADIA ELDER SERVICES
5976	ELECTRA HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.5%	64.6	C	TX	ELECTRA	0	ELECTRA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5977	EXTENDED CARE HOSPITAL OF RIVERSIDE	1.5%	64.6	A	CA	RIVERSIDE	99	—
5978	BETHANY NURSING HOME, INC	1.5%	64.6	B	OH	CANTON	86	—
5979	MS CARE CENTER OF DEKALB	1.5%	64.6	A	MS	DE KALB	60	—
5980	LOCKNEY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.6	F	TX	LOCKNEY	52	—
5981	BRYAN COUNTY HLTH & REHAB CTR	1.5%	64.6	A	GA	RICHMOND HILL	100	—
5982	North Crest Living Center	1.5%	64.6	B	IA	Council Bluffs	62	—
5983	KINGS HARBOR MULTICARE CENTER	1.5%	64.6	B	NY	BRONX	720	—
5984	HUNTINGTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.5%	64.5	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	—
5985	VILLA MARINA HEALTH AND REHAB CTR	1.5%	64.5	B	WI	SUPERIOR	72	—
5986	WELBROOK YUMA OPCO LLC	1.5%	64.5	A	AZ	YUMA	41	—
5987	NC State Veterans Home - Black Mountain	1.5%	64.5	C	NC	Black Mountain	100	—
5988	WELLSVILLE MANOR CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.5	A	NY	WELLSVILLE	120	LUBA SCHULSINGER ESTATE
5989	ESSEX CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	1.5%	64.5	B	NY	ELIZABETHTOWN	100	—
5990	SALAMANCA REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.5%	64.5	A	NY	SALAMANCA	120	—
5991	BROWARD OAKS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.5%	64.5	A	FL	PLANTATION	120	—
5992	CLIFTON REHABILITATION NURSING CENTER	1.5%	64.5	A	MA	SOMERSET	142	—
5993	Carbondale Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	1.5%	64.5	B	PA	CARBONDALE	115	—
5994	Southern Utah Veterans Home - Ivins	1.5%	64.5	A	UT	Ivins	108	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
5995	ROYAL CARE OF AVON PARK	1.5%	64.5	A	FL	AVON PARK	90	—
5996	EDGEHILL HEALTH CENTER	1.5%	64.5	A	CT	STAMFORD	46	—
5997	Knolls West Post Acute LLC	1.5%	64.5	B	CA	Victorville	118	MERIDIAN MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
5998	DALEVIEW CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.5	B	NY	EAST FARMINGDALE	142	—
5999	APEX REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.4	B	NY	HUNTINGTON STATION	195	—
6000	ASCENSION LIVING SACRED HEART VILLAGE	1.5%	64.4	C	IN	AVILLA	133	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL

Showing 5,951–6,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.