Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,901–5,950

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5901	Conesus Lake Nursing Home, LLC	1.5%	65.0	A	NY	Livonia	48	—
5902	RIVERSIDE BEHAVIORAL HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.5%	65.0	B	CA	RIVERSIDE	120	—
5903	MATTOON REHAB & HCC	1.5%	65.0	F	IL	MATTOON	148	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
5904	Rosewood Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	1.5%	65.0	A	PA	SCHUYLKILL HAVEN	142	—
5905	Iosco County Medical Care Facility	1.5%	65.0	D	MI	Tawas City	78	—
5906	PARKSIDE AT BUDD TERRACE OPERATING COMPANY LLC	1.5%	65.0	C	GA	ATLANTA	250	—
5907	PARK AVENUE EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	1.5%	65.0	C	NY	LONG BEACH	240	—
5908	Hampton Ridge Healthcare and Rehabilitation	1.5%	65.0	C	NJ	TOMS RIVER	204	—
5909	Blue Valley Lutheran Nursing Home	1.5%	65.0	C	NE	Hebron	64	—
5910	BEECHTREE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.5%	65.0	C	NY	ITHACA	120	—
5911	ADAMS COUNTY MANOR	1.5%	65.0	B	OH	WEST UNION	74	—
5912	QHC FORT DODGE VILLA , LLC	1.5%	65.0	F	IA	FORT DODGE	107	—
5913	AARON MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	1.5%	65.0	B	CT	CHESTER	60	—
5914	SWISS VILLAGE	1.5%	65.0	B	IN	BERNE	128	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5915	LAKE HAMILTON HEALTH AND REHAB	1.5%	65.0	B	AR	HOT SPRINGS	84	—
5916	FIDELITY HEALTH CARE	1.5%	64.9	A	CA	EL MONTE	90	—
5917	Oak Ridge Care Center	1.5%	64.9	C	WI	UNION GROVE	74	—
5918	CATON PARK REHAB AND NURSING CENTER, L L C	1.5%	64.9	B	NY	BROOKLYN	119	—
5919	Hillcrest Convalescent Center	1.5%	64.9	A	NC	Durham	86	—
5920	TOPANGA TERRACE	1.5%	64.9	A	CA	CANOGA PARK	112	REHAB ALLIANCE
5921	GARDINER HEALTH CARE FACILITY	1.5%	64.9	F	ME	HOULTON	45	—
5922	LOS PALOS POST-ACUTE CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.9	D	CA	SAN PEDRO	99	—
5923	Cummings Health Care Facility	1.5%	64.9	A	ME	HOWLAND	34	—
5924	MERRY HEART NURSING HOME	1.5%	64.9	A	NJ	SUCCASUNNA	113	—
5925	PALACE AT KENDALL NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTE	1.5%	64.9	A	FL	MIAMI	180	PROFESSIONAL CARE I INC
5926	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - BONELL COMMUNITY	1.5%	64.9	F	CO	GREELEY	170	—
5927	ST MONICA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	1.5%	64.9	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	180	—
5928	NORTH PARK CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.9	A	OH	BROOK PARK	34	—
5929	PAVILION-THS, LLC	1.5%	64.9	A	TN	LEBANON	60	—
5930	SEYMOUR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	1.5%	64.9	A	TX	SEYMOUR	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
5931	BELLEVUE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	64.9	C	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	142	—
5932	MADISON PARK HEALTHCARE	1.5%	64.9	A	WV	HUNTINGTON	41	—
5933	AVANTARA ARLINGTON	1.5%	64.9	F	SD	ARLINGTON	37	—
5934	LAREDO MEDICAL CENTER	1.5%	64.9	A	TX	LAREDO	18	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5935	Kempton Of Charleston	1.5%	64.9	C	SC	Charleston	23	—
5936	THE GROVE	1.5%	64.9	A	MS	COLUMBIA	86	—
5937	Good Samaritan Society - Osceola	1.5%	64.9	B	NE	Osceola	47	SANFORD
5938	Avalon Nursing Home INC	1.5%	64.8	A	RI	Warwick	31	—
5939	THE TAMALPAIS	1.5%	64.8	A	CA	GREENBRAE	52	SEQUOIA LIVING INC
5940	LEROY VILLAGE GREEN RESIDENTIAL HEALTH C F, INC	1.5%	64.8	A	NY	LEROY	140	—
5941	NEW EAST SIDE NURSING HOME	1.5%	64.8	C	NY	NEW YORK	58	—
5942	THE GRAND REHABILITATION AND NRSG AT CHITTENANGO	1.5%	64.8	C	NY	CHITTENANGO	80	—
5943	Grace Nursing Home	1.5%	64.8	B	LA	Slaughter	128	—
5944	CHAPMAN HEALTHCARE CENTER, INC	1.5%	64.8	A	AL	ALEXANDER CITY	188	—
5945	FAIRVIEW AT REDSTONE VILLAGE	1.5%	64.8	A	AL	HUNTSVILLE	56	GREENBRIER SENIOR LIVING LLC
5946	SUSQUEHANNA NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER, L L C	1.5%	64.8	C	NY	JOHNSON CITY	160	—
5947	SPRINGTREE REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.8	A	FL	SUNRISE	110	MILLENNIUM CONSOLIDATED LLC
5948	MORNINGSIDE MANOR	1.5%	64.8	C	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
5949	JOHNSON COUNTY HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	1.5%	64.8	C	AR	CLARKSVILLE	140	—
5950	HILLSIDE MANOR REHAB & EXTENDED CARE CENTER	1.5%	64.8	C	NY	JAMAICA EST	400	—

Showing 5,901–5,950 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.