Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,851–5,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5851	THE PINES AT UTICA CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB	1.6%	65.3	C	NY	UTICA	117	—
5852	BRIDGEPOINT SUBACUTE AND REHAB CAPITOL HILL	1.6%	65.3	C	DC	WASHINGTON	117	BRIDGEPOINT HEALTHCARE LLC
5853	BOLINGREEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.6%	65.3	C	GA	MACON	121	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5854	SISTERS MISSION	1.6%	65.3	D	MO	SAINT LOUIS	47	—
5855	EAGLE PASS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.6%	65.3	A	TX	EAGLE PASS	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
5856	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT MARIE ESTHER	1.6%	65.3	A	MA	MARLBOROUGH	78	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
5857	Del Mar Convalescent Hospital	1.6%	65.3	A	CA	ROSEMEAD	59	—
5858	AVIATA AT COLONIAL LAKES	1.6%	65.2	D	FL	WINTER GARDEN	180	—
5859	OXLEY PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.6%	65.2	C	GA	LYONS	144	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5860	SIBLEY MEM HOSP RENAISSANCE	1.6%	65.2	B	DC	WASHINGTON	45	THE JOHNS HOPKINS HEALTH SYSTEM CORPORATION
5861	BRENTWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.2	A	OH	SAGAMORE HILLS	99	—
5862	VIENNA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.2	A	CA	LODI	150	—
5863	FOREST HILLS CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.2	B	NY	FOREST HILLS	100	—
5864	Princeton Nursing & Rehabilitation	1.6%	65.2	A	KY	Princeton	104	—
5865	SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HOSP AT CULVER CITY D/P SNF	1.6%	65.2	B	CA	CULVER CITY	21	CHAMBER INC
5866	ABBY GARDENS HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.6%	65.2	F	CA	SAN DIEGO	99	—
5867	PROMENADE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.2	B	NY	ROCKAWAY PARK	240	—
5868	COVE'S EDGE INC	1.6%	65.2	C	ME	DAMARISCOTTA	76	MAINEHEALTH SERVICES
5869	SPRING CREEK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.6%	65.2	B	PA	HARRISBURG	404	—
5870	WESTBROOK HEALTHCARE, INC	1.6%	65.2	C	OK	WAURIKA	83	—
5871	Good Samaritan Society - Grand Island Village	1.6%	65.2	F	NE	Grand Island	67	SANFORD
5872	STEUBENVILLE COUNTRY CLUB MANOR	1.6%	65.2	B	OH	STEUBENVILLE	54	—
5873	BAY AREA HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.6%	65.2	A	CA	OAKLAND	99	—
5874	Ambler Extended Care Center	1.6%	65.2	A	PA	AMBLER	100	—
5875	WASHINGTON NURSING CENTER	1.6%	65.2	C	IN	WASHINGTON	140	—
5876	COUNTRYSIDE MANOR OF BRISTOL	1.6%	65.2	C	CT	BRISTOL	90	—
5877	GILLETTE NURSING HOME	1.6%	65.2	A	OH	WARREN	99	—
5878	St. Juanita Retirement and Rehab	1.6%	65.2	A	TX	SAN ANGELO	90	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5879	Park Crescent Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	1.6%	65.2	B	NJ	EAST ORANGE	190	—
5880	SPRING LAKE REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	65.1	A	FL	WINTER HAVEN	132	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
5881	Boulder Park Terrace	1.5%	65.1	B	MI	Charlevoix	72	MCLAREN HEALTH CARE CORPORATION
5882	VALENCIA GARDENS HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.5%	65.1	B	CA	RIVERSIDE	50	NAHS HOLDING INC
5883	Stratford Manor Rehabilitation and Care Center	1.5%	65.1	B	NJ	WEST ORANGE	131	—
5884	MS CARE CENTER OF RALEIGH	1.5%	65.1	A	MS	RALEIGH	110	—
5885	GOLD CREST CARE CENTER	1.5%	65.1	A	NY	BRONX	175	LUBA SCHULSINGER ESTATE
5886	INNISFREE HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	1.5%	65.1	C	AR	ROGERS	104	—
5887	Buffalo Center For Rehabilitation And Nursing	1.5%	65.1	A	NY	BUFFALO	200	—
5888	PARKVILLE CARE CENTER	1.5%	65.1	A	CT	HARTFORD	150	—
5889	BETHESDA DILWORTH	1.5%	65.1	D	MO	SAINT LOUIS	350	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
5890	Monette Manor, LLC	1.5%	65.1	B	AR	Monette	86	CARE MANAGEMENT INC
5891	ARLINGTON REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.5%	65.1	B	AL	BIRMINGHAM	117	—
5892	VALLEY VIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	1.5%	65.1	B	AL	MADISON	155	JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
5893	GREENWAY MANOR	1.5%	65.1	A	WI	SPRING GREEN	50	—
5894	Willowbrooke Court Skilled Care Center at Mease Li	1.5%	65.1	C	FL	DUNEDIN	100	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
5895	NEW PALTZ CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.5%	65.0	B	NY	NEW PALTZ	79	—
5896	ELK CROSSING	1.5%	65.0	A	OK	DUNCAN	120	—
5897	AVIATA AT UNIVERSITY HILLS	1.5%	65.0	C	FL	PENSACOLA	120	—
5898	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR	1.5%	65.0	A	MD	BALTIMORE	20	—
5899	Brandenburg Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.5%	65.0	B	KY	Brandenburg	57	—
5900	Citrus Nursing Center	1.5%	65.0	C	CA	Fontana	99	—

Showing 5,851–5,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.