Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,801–5,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5801	PIPER CITY REHAB & LIVING CTR	1.6%	65.6	C	IL	PIPER CITY	60	—
5802	BAYWOOD POST ACUTE	1.6%	65.6	B	CA	CAMPBELL	45	—
5803	POMONA VISTA CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.6	B	CA	POMONA	59	—
5804	Newark Manor Nursing Home Inc	1.6%	65.6	A	NY	Newark	60	—
5805	WEST MEADE PLACE	1.6%	65.6	B	TN	NASHVILLE	120	—
5806	RIVERSIDE VILLAGE	1.6%	65.5	A	IN	ELKHART	97	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5807	Prairie Gate	1.6%	65.5	C	IA	Council Bluffs	72	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
5808	FOREST MANOR HCC	1.6%	65.5	D	NJ	BLAIRSTOWN	120	—
5809	LAKE COUNTRY NURSING CENTER	1.6%	65.5	B	OK	MARIETTA	69	—
5810	MASTERNICK MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.5	A	OH	NEW MIDDLETOWN	99	—
5811	UNIQUE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CENTER LLC	1.6%	65.5	B	DC	WASHINGTON	230	GOLD PA TRUST
5812	SERENITY BAY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.5	B	FL	NORTH MIAMI BEACH	143	—
5813	HIGH VALLEY LODGE	1.6%	65.5	A	CA	SUNLAND	50	—
5814	HAMILTON PARK NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.5	A	NY	BROOKLYN	200	ALLURE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
5815	Aspen Health and Rehab	1.6%	65.5	D	OK	Broken Arrow	126	—
5816	MANOR AT BLUE WATER BAY, THE	1.6%	65.5	A	FL	NICEVILLE	120	—
5817	HOLDEN REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.6%	65.5	A	MA	HOLDEN	123	ORIOL HOLDING INC
5818	LOFT REHAB OF EAST PEORIA, THE	1.6%	65.5	B	IL	EAST PEORIA	120	LOFT PEORIA HOLDINGS LLC
5819	NEURORESTORATIVE	1.6%	65.5	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	35	CAREMERIDIAN LLC
5820	FOUNTAINVIEW CTR FOR ALZHEIMER	1.6%	65.5	C	GA	ATLANTA	120	—
5821	HALLETTSVILLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.6%	65.5	C	TX	HALLETTSVILLE	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5822	QHC HUMBOLDT NORTH, LLC	1.6%	65.5	F	IA	HUMBOLDT	90	—
5823	SPLENDIDO AT RANCHO VISTOSO	1.6%	65.5	B	AZ	TUCSON	42	—
5824	ELDERWOOD AT LIVERPOOL	1.6%	65.5	B	NY	LIVERPOOL	160	—
5825	PIONEER HEALTH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA	1.6%	65.5	C	GA	BYROMVILLE	102	—
5826	TALLADEGA HEALTHCARE CENTER, INC	1.6%	65.5	A	AL	TALLADEGA	234	SCHMIDT WALLACE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
5827	GARDEN VIEW CARE CENTER OF CHESTERFIELD	1.6%	65.5	A	MO	CHESTERFIELD	52	—
5828	Avon Nursing Home L L C	1.6%	65.5	C	NY	Avon	40	—
5829	Vineyard Hills Health Center	1.6%	65.5	B	CA	Templeton	99	COMPASS HEALTH INC
5830	TRUMAN W SMITH CHILDREN'S CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.5	A	TX	GLADEWATER	120	—
5831	Fountain Bleu Health and Rehabilitation Center	1.6%	65.5	B	MI	Livonia	108	—
5832	CHESTELM HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.5	B	CT	MOODUS	76	—
5833	AUBURN REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.6%	65.5	A	NY	AUBURN	92	—
5834	Elderwood at Grand Island	1.6%	65.5	A	NY	GRAND ISLAND	90	—
5835	HARBOR HEALTH & REHAB	1.6%	65.5	D	IN	EAST CHICAGO	106	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5836	ROBINGS MANOR RHC	1.6%	65.5	C	IL	BRIGHTON	75	—
5837	Great Lakes Rehabilitation Center	1.6%	65.5	C	MI	Saginaw	55	—
5838	DELTA GRANDE SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.6%	65.5	B	LA	MONROE	74	—
5839	Riverview Health & Rehab Center	1.6%	65.5	B	MI	Detroit	203	—
5840	Hillside Nursing Center of Wake Forest	1.6%	65.4	B	NC	Wake Forest	130	—
5841	THE GRAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT MOHAWK	1.6%	65.4	C	NY	ILION	120	—
5842	ABBEY SENIOR HEALTH	1.6%	65.4	A	MO	O FALLON	55	—
5843	SANFIELD REHAB & LIVING CENTER	1.6%	65.4	A	ME	HARTLAND	23	—
5844	NEWPORT HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.4	C	VT	NEWPORT	50	—
5845	WILLIAMSVILLE SUBURBAN, L L C	1.6%	65.4	C	NY	WILLIAMSVILLE	220	—
5846	AVIATA AT SHOAL CREEK	1.6%	65.4	B	FL	CRESTVIEW	120	—
5847	MIONA GERIATRIC & DEMENTIA CENTER	1.6%	65.4	A	GA	IDEAL	88	—
5848	SHEEPSHEAD NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.4	B	NY	BROOKLYN	200	—
5849	ALLBRIDGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.6%	65.4	C	OH	COLUMBUS	43	—
5850	SINGLETON HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.4	A	OH	CLEVELAND	50	—

Showing 5,801–5,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.