Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,401–6,450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6401	THREE RIVERS HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	58.2	B	VA	WEST POINT	60	HLHK IRREVOCABLE TRUST
6402	ODD FELLOW-REBEKAH HOME	0.2%	58.2	C	IL	MATTOON	162	—
6403	Ashley Rehabilitation and Health Care Center	0.2%	58.2	C	AR	Rogers	100	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
6404	LONG ISLAND CARE CENTER INC	0.2%	58.2	C	NY	FLUSHING	200	—
6405	VAN BUREN HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	AR	VAN BUREN	140	ROBERT V RYE LIV TR DTD 10042022
6406	COPPERAS HOLLOW NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	TX	CALDWELL	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6407	SANFORD HILLSBORO CARE CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	ND	HILLSBORO	34	SANFORD
6408	QUITMAN COUNTY HEALTH & REHAB LLC	0.2%	58.2	A	MS	MARKS	60	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
6409	Bayside Healthcare Center	0.2%	58.2	B	LA	GRETNA	151	CHAMPION MANAGEMENT LLC
6410	Family of Caring Healthcare at Ridgewood	0.2%	58.2	A	NJ	RIDGEWOOD	96	—
6411	LYNBROOK RESTORATIVE THERAPY AND NURSING	0.2%	58.2	B	NY	LYNBROOK	100	—
6412	Mountain View Post Acute	0.2%	58.2	C	CA	Barstow	59	—
6413	OKLAHOMA MEMORY CARE INSTITUTE	0.2%	58.2	D	OK	TULSA	56	DIAKONOS GROUP LLC
6414	REGALCARE AT TAUNTON	0.2%	58.2	C	MA	TAUNTON	100	RC OPCO HOLDCO LLC
6415	EDGEMOOR HOSPITAL	0.2%	58.2	A	CA	SANTEE	192	—
6416	Grayling Nursing & Rehabilitation Community	0.2%	58.2	B	MI	Grayling	72	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
6417	ENNISCOURT NURSING CARE	0.1%	57.2	A	OH	LAKEWOOD	50	PREMIER THERAPY LLC
6418	SILVER LAKE SPECIALIZED REHAB AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	C	NY	STATEN ISLAND	278	—
6419	SCARLET OAKS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	OH	CINCINNATI	70	—
6420	WELLSPRING HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	57.2	D	OH	CINCINNATI	70	NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE INCOME OPERATING PARTNERSHIP LP
6421	O'BRIEN MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE C	0.1%	57.2	B	OH	MASURY	87	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
6422	Wharton Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	57.2	D	TX	Wharton	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6423	CARTHAGE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	57.2	A	NY	CARTHAGE	90	—
6424	Briar Creek Health Center	0.1%	57.2	C	NC	Charlotte	6	—
6425	ATLANTIC COAST REHAB & HEALTH	0.1%	57.2	D	NJ	LAKEWOOD	160	—
6426	Angel Oak Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	0.1%	57.2	A	SC	Myrtle Beach	88	—
6427	Adept Nursing & Rehab of Waverly	0.1%	57.2	C	NE	Waverly	54	BRASS NE TRUST
6428	Alaris Health at The Chateau	0.1%	57.2	C	NJ	ROCHELLE PARK	251	—
6429	ARTESIA CHRISTIAN HOME INC.	0.1%	57.2	A	CA	ARTESIA	66	—
6430	ELMORA HILLS HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	C	NJ	ELIZABETH	200	—
6431	Elizabeth City Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	57.2	B	NC	Elizabeth City	170	—
6432	GARDEN VIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	FL	VERO BEACH	72	—
6433	ALCOA PINES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	57.2	B	AR	BENTON	120	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6434	River Bend Healthcare	0.1%	57.2	D	TX	SEGUIN	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6435	CLARA BALDWIN STOCKER HOME FOR WOMEN	0.1%	57.2	C	CA	WEST COVINA	48	—
6436	Valley Healthcare Center	0.1%	57.2	B	CA	San Bernardino	109	COTTON FAMILY REVOCABLE TRUST
6437	Hallmar Village	0.1%	57.2	C	IA	CEDAR RAPIDS	55	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
6438	HILLSIDE REHAB & CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	F	IL	YORKVILLE	79	BRIDGEMARK HEALTHCARE LLC
6439	Falcon Lake Nursing Home, LLC	0.1%	57.2	A	TX	Zapata	59	—
6440	MEDICALODGES PAOLA	0.1%	57.2	C	KS	PAOLA	70	MEDICALODGES INC
6441	CONTINENTAL MANOR NURS AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	A	OH	BLANCHESTER	59	—
6442	THE SPRINGS OF CAMDEN	0.1%	57.2	B	AR	CAMDEN	106	BLACK RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
6443	EVENTIDE FARGO	0.1%	57.2	A	ND	FARGO	98	EVENTIDE
6444	CONSOLATA REHAB AND WELLNESS CENTER ON THE TECHE	0.1%	57.2	C	LA	NEW IBERIA	114	DCZ HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
6445	Briarwood Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	57.2	B	MI	Flint	117	—
6446	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING PLATTE CITY	0.1%	57.2	D	MO	PLATTE CITY	97	CHP SNFCO LLC
6447	Heritage Healthcare of Painesville	0.1%	57.2	C	OH	PAINESVILLE	78	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
6448	SOUTH MOUNTAIN REHAB CENTER	0.1%	57.2	C	MD	BOONSBORO	157	HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC
6449	CRYSTAL OAKS	0.1%	57.2	B	MO	FESTUS	131	—
6450	Complete Care at Germantown	0.1%	57.2	C	WI	Germantown	121	SMS 2021 TRUST

Showing 6,401–6,450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.