Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,601–6,650

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6601	LEGACY POINTE AT UCF	0.1%	56.1	D	FL	OVIEDO	48	—
6602	Arc at Sangamon Valley	0.1%	56.1	F	IL	SPRINGFIELD	171	YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
6603	La Bella of Freeburg	0.1%	56.1	C	IL	FREEBURG	118	—
6604	AVIATA AT GREENACRES	0.1%	56.1	F	FL	GREEN ACRES	120	—
6605	Hendersonville Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	56.1	B	NC	Flat Rock	130	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
6606	MAPLE MANOR CHRISTIAN HOME INC	0.1%	56.1	A	IN	SELLERSBURG	57	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6607	Ennis Care Center	0.1%	56.1	D	TX	Ennis	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6608	Salem Lutheran Home	0.1%	56.1	D	IA	Elk Horn	64	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
6609	MENORAH HOUSE	0.1%	56.1	C	FL	BOCA RATON	120	—
6610	TOUCHPOINTS AT CHESTNUT	0.1%	56.1	B	CT	EAST WINDSOR	60	GLOBAL WORLD INVESTORS
6611	PELICAN POINTE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	C	CO	WINDSOR	104	—
6612	PLUMAS DISTRICT HOSPITAL DP/SNF	0.1%	56.1	A	CA	QUINCY	36	—
6613	The Cypress at Midtown	0.1%	56.1	B	NE	Omaha	61	BRASS NE TRUST
6614	Daleville Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	56.1	A	VA	DALEVILLE	90	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
6615	Devine Health & Rehabilitation	0.1%	56.1	B	TX	Devine	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6616	Emmetsburg Care Center	0.1%	56.1	B	IA	Emmetsburg	46	DOROS GENERATION TRUST U A D 1 3 12
6617	TIERRA ROSE CARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	A	OR	SALEM	76	—
6618	JOE-ANNE BURGIN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	56.1	A	GA	CUTHBERT	80	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6619	LAKESHORE VILLAGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	56.1	C	TX	WACO	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6620	GLENWOOD SPRINGS HEALTHCARE	0.1%	56.1	B	CO	GLENWOOD SPRINGS	54	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
6621	YORKTOWN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	C	TX	YORKTOWN	0	DEWITT MEDICAL DISTRICT
6622	MAYFLOWER PLACE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	B	MA	WEST YARMOUTH	72	—
6623	MILPITAS CARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	B	CA	MILPITAS	35	—
6624	Antioch TN Opco, LLC	0.1%	56.1	D	TN	ANTIOCH	110	—
6625	PARKWAY HEALTH & REHAB LLC	0.1%	56.1	B	MS	CANTON	87	—
6626	CONCORD VILLAGE SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	56.1	A	OH	CONCORD	72	VRC MANAGEMENT INC
6627	CRAWFORD CARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	D	PA	SAEGERTOWN	157	HILLEL TROPPER 2016 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
6628	BELVEDERE CENTER, GENESIS HEALTHCARE, THE	0.1%	56.1	B	PA	CHESTER	150	—
6629	PUTNAM RIDGE	0.1%	56.1	B	NY	BREWSTER	160	—
6630	MONTGOMERY CARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	B	OH	CINCINNATI	99	CARECORE HEALTH LLC
6631	RENAISSANCE PARK MULTI CARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	F	TX	FORT WORTH	0	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
6632	Anadarko Nursing & Rehab	0.1%	56.1	B	OK	Anadarko	92	—
6633	EMPORIA REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	A	VA	EMPORIA	120	—
6634	Heritage of Bel Air	0.1%	56.1	A	NE	Norfolk	112	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
6635	SOUTHWESTERN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	F	PA	PITTSBURGH	118	ENS HOLDINGS LLC
6636	PONTOTOC HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	56.1	A	MS	PONTOTOC	60	ADVANCED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
6637	Bradley Creek Health Center	0.1%	56.1	A	NC	Wilmington	30	—
6638	SOUTHFORK RIVER THERAPY AND LIVING	0.1%	56.1	B	AR	SALEM	84	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6639	CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AT HAMPTON WOODS THE	0.1%	56.1	A	OH	POLAND	26	—
6640	Bethesda Health Care Facility	0.1%	56.1	A	NC	Eastover	85	—
6641	BEL-AIR MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	B	CT	NEWINGTON	71	MARTIN SBRIGLIO 2009 TRUST
6642	Burcham Hills Retirement Center	0.1%	56.1	B	MI	East Lansing	133	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
6643	TRINITY MANOR	0.1%	56.1	B	KS	DODGE CITY	46	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
6644	GRANDVIEW POST ACUTE	0.1%	56.1	B	TN	COOKEVILLE	120	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
6645	AYDEN HEALTHCARE OF BELLE SPRINGS.	0.1%	56.1	C	OH	BELLEFONTAINE	99	BUCKEYE FAMILY TRUST
6646	Cedar Crest Nursing Centre Inc	0.1%	56.1	B	RI	Cranston	156	—
6647	PIERZ VILLA INC	0.1%	56.1	A	MN	PIERZ	45	PARTNERS SENIOR LIVING OPTIONS LLC
6648	LAFAYETTE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	C	NH	FRANCONIA	72	PERIGROVE 1014 LLC
6649	Arrowhead Post Acute LLC	0.1%	56.1	C	GA	JONESBORO	115	BARRES LLC
6650	Georgia Regional Atlanta LTC	0.1%	56.1	A	GA	DECATUR	66	—

Showing 6,601–6,650 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.