Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,701–6,750

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6701	SPRING GATE REHAB & HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	F	TN	MEMPHIS	206	B&Y TRUST
6702	WEST MEADE PLACE	0.1%	56.1	B	TN	NASHVILLE	120	—
6703	DIVERSICARE OF HAYSVILLE	0.1%	56.1	C	KS	HAYSVILLE	119	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
6704	WICKLIFFE COUNTRY PLACE	0.1%	56.1	B	OH	WICKLIFFE	170	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
6705	BRIA OF RIVER OAKS	0.1%	56.1	C	IL	BURNHAM	309	WHEAT CHAFF LP
6706	MOUNTAIN CITY CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	C	TN	MOUNTAIN CITY	120	WHEATEN LLC
6707	BAINBRIDGE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	A	NY	BRONX	200	ISAAC E GOLDBRENNER ESTATE
6708	Avir at Sherman	0.1%	56.1	B	TX	Sherman	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6709	Peak Resources - Gastonia	0.1%	56.1	A	NC	Gastonia	104	PEAK RESOURCES INC
6710	MEADOW LAKE HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	56.1	A	TX	TYLER	0	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
6711	VALLEY VIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.1%	56.1	B	AL	MADISON	155	JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
6712	AVISTON COUNTRYSIDE MANOR	0.1%	56.1	C	IL	AVISTON	97	—
6713	Brentwood Health Center by Harborview	0.1%	56.1	B	GA	WAYNESBORO	103	MID GA HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
6714	SUFFIELD HOUSE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTE	0.1%	56.1	A	CT	SUFFIELD	128	—
6715	Thorne Crest Retirement Center	0.1%	56.1	D	MN	ALBERT LEA	52	—
6716	AURORA MANOR SPECIAL CARE CENT	0.1%	56.1	C	OH	AURORA	75	SABER HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
6717	Argentine Care Center	0.1%	56.1	A	MI	Linden	60	—
6718	Fairfax Behavioral Health & Memory Care Community	0.1%	56.1	D	OK	Fairfax	60	—
6719	Arrowhead Healthcare Center, LLC	0.1%	56.1	A	CA	San Bernardino	58	RENEW HEALTH GROUP LLC
6720	CHATEAU ST. JAMES REHAB AND RETIREMENT	0.1%	56.1	B	LA	LUTCHER	116	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
6721	AVIATA AT FLETCHER	0.1%	56.1	C	FL	TAMPA	120	—
6722	ALTOONA HEALTH & REHAB	0.1%	56.1	A	AL	ALTOONA	50	TRINTIY MANAGEMENT INC
6723	ACCOLADE HEALTHCARE OF PONTIAC	0.1%	56.1	C	IL	PONTIAC	97	—
6724	AVIATA AT BRENTWOOD	0.1%	56.1	C	FL	LECANTO	120	—
6725	Liberty Commons Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	56.1	C	NC	Whiteville	107	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
6726	QUALITY LIFE SERVICES - WESTMONT	0.1%	56.1	C	PA	JOHNSTOWN	41	—
6727	ANCHOR CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	C	FL	PALM BAY	120	—
6728	Harmony Village of Clinton	0.1%	56.1	F	MI	Clinton Township	127	MISSION POINT METRO HOLDING LLC
6729	AVENTURA AT ASSUMPTION VILLAGE	0.1%	56.1	C	OH	NORTH LIMA	150	EOM HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LLC
6730	St Andrews Operator, LLC	0.1%	56.1	D	SC	Columbia	108	WEST NC HOLDINGS LLC
6731	JEFFERSONVILLE CARE CENTER LLC	0.1%	56.1	C	GA	JEFFERSONVILLE	131	PEACH HEALTH GROUP LLC
6732	BENTWOOD NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	56.1	D	MO	FLORISSANT	116	—
6733	Maine Veterans Home - Augusta	0.1%	56.1	A	ME	AUGUSTA	108	MAINE VETERANS HOME
6734	SPRINGTOWN PARK REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	C	TX	SPRINGTOWN	0	PARKER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6735	THE BLOSSOMS AT NORTH LITTLE ROCK REHAB & NURSING	0.1%	56.1	B	AR	NORTH LITTLE ROCK	140	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
6736	KINGS HARBOR MULTICARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	B	NY	BRONX	720	—
6737	BLACKSTONE VALLEY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	56.1	B	MA	WHITINSVILLE	123	—
6738	Avalon Place	0.1%	56.1	A	LA	MONROE	113	DCZ HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
6739	Marvin & Betty Danto Health Care Center	0.1%	56.1	C	MI	West Bloomfield	155	—
6740	CAMBRIDGE CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	110	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
6741	THE GRAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT UTICA	0.1%	54.9	D	NY	UTICA	220	—
6742	OAK HILL REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	NY	ITHACA	60	—
6743	AHC CRESTVIEW	0.1%	54.9	D	TN	BROWNSVILLE	115	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
6744	GALLATIN MANOR	0.1%	54.9	B	IL	RIDGWAY	71	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
6745	APERION CARE CHICAGO HEIGHTS	0.1%	54.9	C	IL	CHICAGO HEIGHTS	200	—
6746	COTTAGE CREST POST ACUTE	0.1%	54.9	D	CA	NORWALK	59	—
6747	AVIATA AT COLONIAL LAKES	0.1%	54.9	D	FL	WINTER GARDEN	180	—
6748	DUGAN MEMORIAL HOME	0.1%	54.9	A	MS	WEST POINT	60	—
6749	HIGHLAND PARK HEALTH CARE	0.1%	54.9	D	OK	OKMULGEE	114	STONEGATE SENIOR LIVING LP
6750	WEST VILLAGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	NY	NEW YORK	105	—

Showing 6,701–6,750 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.