Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,801–6,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6801	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - OAKES	0.9%	59.7	C	ND	OAKES	46	SANFORD
6802	EAST ALABAMA MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING FACILI	0.9%	59.7	—	AL	OPELIKA	26	—
6803	WINDFLOWER HEALTH CENTER	0.9%	59.7	C	TX	AMARILLO	0	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
6804	Parkside Manor	0.9%	59.7	A	NE	Stuart	40	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
6805	ELKHART MEADOWS	0.9%	59.7	B	IN	ELKHART	58	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6806	Sun Dial Manor	0.9%	59.7	A	SD	BRISTOL	37	—
6807	Eventide Prairie Commons Care Center	0.9%	59.7	C	NE	Grand Island	36	EVENTIDE
6808	ALMA MANOR	0.9%	59.7	F	KS	ALMA	45	—
6809	Randolph County Care Center	0.9%	59.7	C	IL	SPARTA	100	—
6810	MAPLE PARK VILLAGE	0.9%	59.7	B	IN	WESTFIELD	106	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6811	St Marys Home for the Aged	0.9%	59.7	A	WI	Manitowoc	84	FELICIAN SERVICES INC
6812	BRUCE MCCANDLESS CO STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.9%	59.7	F	CO	FLORENCE	105	STATE OF COLORADO
6813	The Citadel at Myers Park, LLC	0.9%	59.7	B	NC	Charlotte	133	—
6814	ABRAMSON SENIOR CARE AT LANKENAU MEDICAL CENTER	0.9%	59.7	F	PA	WYNNEWOOD	35	—
6815	MARIAN MANOR	0.9%	59.7	D	MA	BOSTON	366	—
6816	VILLA RANCHO BERNARDO CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.7	B	CA	SAN DIEGO	299	—
6817	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - FOUNTAINVIEW CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.7	D	IN	MISHAWAKA	130	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
6818	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY CANISTOTA	0.9%	59.7	C	SD	CANISTOTA	55	SANFORD
6819	VERNON REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.9%	59.7	C	TX	VERNON	58	—
6820	M I NURSING & RESTORATIVE CENTER	0.9%	59.7	B	MA	LAWRENCE	250	COVENANT HEALTH
6821	BARNES-JEWISH EXTENDED CARE	0.9%	59.6	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	120	BETHESDA HEALTH GROUP INC
6822	Westpark Rehabilitation and Living	0.9%	59.6	F	TX	Euless	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6823	GREENVILLE GARDENS	0.9%	59.6	C	TX	GREENVILLE	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6824	WILLOWBROOKE CTSKDCARECTR AT FORTWASHINGTONESTATES	0.9%	59.6	A	PA	FORT WASHINGTON	9	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6825	BIGFORK VALLEY COMMUNITIES	0.9%	59.6	B	MN	BIGFORK	40	—
6826	Neilson Place	0.9%	59.6	D	MN	BEMIDJI	78	SANFORD
6827	INDEPENDENCE CARE CENTER OF PERRY COUNTY	0.9%	59.6	B	MO	PERRYVILLE	133	—
6828	AULTMAN TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.6	—	OH	CANTON	60	—
6829	COLUMBIA BASIN CARE FACILITY	0.9%	59.6	C	OR	THE DALLES	90	—
6830	WESTPORT REHABILITATION COMPLEX	0.9%	59.6	F	CT	WESTPORT	120	—
6831	FAIRVIEW NURSING CARE CENTER INC	0.9%	59.6	A	NY	FOREST HILLS	200	—
6832	ST JOSEPH'S CENTER	0.9%	59.5	D	CT	TRUMBULL	274	—
6833	HILLCREST HOME	0.9%	59.5	A	IL	GENESEO	99	—
6834	POCAHONTAS MANOR	0.9%	59.5	D	IA	POCAHONTAS	60	—
6835	KINGSWAY ARMS NURSING CENTER INC	0.9%	59.5	A	NY	SCHENECTADY	160	—
6836	PARK LANE NURSING HOME	0.9%	59.5	A	KS	SCOTT CITY	54	GRACE TEAM LLC
6837	TOUCHPOINTS AT FARMINGTON	0.9%	59.5	C	CT	FARMINGTON	105	—
6838	VILLAGE AT VICTORY LAKES, THE	0.9%	59.5	D	IL	LINDENHURST	120	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHICAGO SERVICES CORPORATION
6839	COLE PLACE	0.9%	59.5	—	PA	COUDERSPORT	44	—
6840	HICKORY CREEK AT NEW CASTLE	0.9%	59.5	A	IN	NEW CASTLE	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6841	SKYVIEW NURSING CENTER	0.9%	59.5	F	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	60	—
6842	Brookestone of David City	0.9%	59.5	A	NE	David City	86	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
6843	Good Samaritan - Holstein	0.9%	59.5	D	IA	Holstein	60	SANFORD
6844	THE WATERMARK AT BROADWAY CITYVIEW	0.9%	59.5	C	TX	FORT WORTH	122	—
6845	SEASONS HEALTHCARE	0.9%	59.5	B	MN	TRIMONT	26	—
6846	WESTFIELD NURSING CENTER, INC	0.9%	59.4	B	MO	SIKESTON	82	—
6847	RIO GRANDE CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	59.4	B	TX	RIO GRANDE CITY	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6848	ST BARNABAS NURSING HOME	0.9%	59.4	A	PA	GIBSONIA	119	ST BARNABAS CLINICAL SERVICES INC
6849	COUNTRY HEALTH	0.9%	59.4	C	IL	GIFFORD	89	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
6850	Lake Orion Nursing Center	0.9%	59.4	D	MI	Lake Orion	120	MCLAREN HEALTH CARE CORPORATION

Showing 6,801–6,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.