Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,951–7,000

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6951	FOCUSED CARE AT HUMBLE	0.1%	53.5	B	TX	HUMBLE	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
6952	Embassy Rehab and Care Center	0.1%	53.5	B	IA	Sergeant Bluff	60	LANTIS ENTERPRISES INC
6953	BROOKFIELD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	MO	BROOKFIELD	60	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
6954	Bermuda Village Retirement Center	0.1%	53.5	B	NC	Bermuda Run	36	—
6955	COLONIAL MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION HOME	0.1%	53.5	B	LA	RAYVILLE	105	—
6956	MITCHELL-HOLLINGSWORTH NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	53.5	A	AL	FLORENCE	222	—
6957	NORTHERN NECK SENIOR CARE COMMUNITY	0.1%	53.5	A	VA	WARSAW	80	HLHK IRREVOCABLE TRUST
6958	MARYVILLE LIVING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	F	MO	MARYVILLE	105	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
6959	Accura Healthcare of New Hampton	0.1%	53.5	B	IA	New Hampton	52	AVENUE94 LLC
6960	WATHENA HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	KS	WATHENA	60	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
6961	Pine Ridge Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	53.5	A	NC	Thomasville	140	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
6962	EARLY MEMORIAL NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	53.5	A	GA	BLAKELY	127	—
6963	CareOne At Madison Avenue	0.1%	53.5	C	NJ	MORRISTOWN	178	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
6964	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT BELOIT	0.1%	53.5	C	WI	BELOIT	120	—
6965	Betty Ann Nursing Center	0.1%	53.5	B	OK	Grove	60	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
6966	LOS PALOS POST-ACUTE CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	D	CA	SAN PEDRO	99	—
6967	PREFERRED CARE AT OLD BRIDGE, LLC	0.1%	53.5	B	NJ	OLD BRIDGE	140	—
6968	OMNI MANOR NURSING HOME	0.1%	53.5	B	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	130	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
6969	Good Samaritan - Villisca	0.1%	53.5	A	IA	Villisca	46	SANFORD
6970	THE RENAISSANCE AT KESSLER PARK	0.1%	53.5	B	TX	DALLAS	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6971	McCall Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.1%	53.5	C	ID	McCall	65	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
6972	BROWNSBURG MEADOWS	0.1%	53.5	B	IN	BROWNSBURG	147	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6973	PRAIRIE GROVE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.1%	53.5	A	AR	PRAIRIE GROVE	70	ROBERT V RYE LIV TR DTD 10042022
6974	CLYDE W COSPER TEXAS STATE VETERANS HOME	0.1%	53.5	C	TX	BONHAM	160	—
6975	GRAYS HARBOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	WA	ABERDEEN	105	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
6976	PARK BEND REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	F	TX	BURLESON	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6977	BROOKE KNOLL VILLAGE	0.1%	53.5	B	IN	AVON	117	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6978	Beaverton Post Acute Care of Cascadia	0.1%	53.5	A	OR	BEAVERTON	104	NAIR LLC
6979	ALLIANCE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	FL	DELAND	130	—
6980	Archway Transitional Care Center	0.1%	53.5	B	GA	MACON	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6981	STONEBRIDGE LAKE OZARK	0.1%	53.5	C	MO	OSAGE BEACH	66	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
6982	The Orchards at Samaritan	0.1%	53.5	A	MI	Detroit	120	—
6983	SUNNY SPRINGS NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	53.5	C	TX	SULPHUR SPRINGS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6984	BROOKHAVEN NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	53.5	C	MO	SPRINGFIELD	90	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
6985	Holly Hall	0.1%	53.5	A	TX	Houston	62	—
6986	MOUNTAIN MANOR SENIOR RESIDENCE	0.1%	53.5	C	CA	CARMICHAEL	47	—
6987	SULPHUR SPRINGS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	53.5	C	TX	SULPHUR SPRINGS	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6988	PLEASANT VIEW NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	GA	METTER	120	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
6989	ROBERT PACKER HOSPITAL SKILLED CARE AND REHABILIT	0.1%	53.5	C	PA	TOWANDA	68	THE GUTHRIE CLINIC
6990	North Woods Nursing Center	0.1%	53.5	A	MI	Farwell	71	PEPLINKSI HOLDINGS INC
6991	EXCELL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	CA	OAKLAND	99	—
6992	Bethany Life	0.1%	53.5	D	IA	Story City	126	—
6993	SERENITY SPRING SENIOR LIVING AT ARLINGTON	0.1%	53.5	D	OH	ARLINGTON	50	CONTINUUM HEALTHCARE I INC
6994	CENTRE AVENUE HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	0.1%	53.5	C	CO	FORT COLLINS	90	COLUMBINE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6995	THE ORCHARDS OF ALLIANCE	0.1%	53.5	—	OH	ALLIANCE	78	ORCHARDS FAMILY MANAGEMENT LLC
6996	Cumberland Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	53.5	C	KY	Somerset	93	—
6997	AVIATA AT SEMINOLE	0.1%	53.5	F	FL	SEMINOLE	120	—
6998	TROY MANOR	0.1%	53.5	D	MO	TROY	130	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
6999	ST ELIZABETH CARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	F	MO	SAINT ELIZABETH	63	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
7000	Kingston of Ashland	0.1%	53.5	C	OH	ASHLAND	110	KINGSTON HEALTHCARE INC

Showing 6,951–7,000 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.