Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,101–7,150

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7101	WATERS OF CHESTERFIELD SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	53.5	A	IN	CHESTERFIELD	60	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7102	ELDERWOOD AT TICONDEROGA	0.1%	53.5	B	NY	TICONDEROGA	84	—
7103	HEART OF GEORGIA NURSING HOME	0.1%	53.5	A	GA	EASTMAN	100	—
7104	LUXOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION AT MILLS POND	0.1%	53.5	B	NY	ST JAMES	252	—
7105	ALLURE OF LAKE STOREY	0.1%	53.5	A	IL	GALESBURG	180	MN1 MANAGEMENT CORP
7106	PROVIDENCE KODIAK ISLAND MED LTC	0.1%	53.5	A	AK	KODIAK	22	—
7107	PALATKA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING	0.1%	53.5	A	FL	PALATKA	180	—
7108	TOWER HILL HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	F	IL	SOUTH ELGIN	206	—
7109	Lagniappe Healthcare	0.1%	53.5	A	LA	Bastrop	112	DELTA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
7110	Bridgecrest Rehabilitation Suites	0.1%	53.5	C	TX	Houston	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
7111	SALEM REHAB CENTER	0.1%	53.5	F	MA	SALEM	123	DECLARATION OF TRUST OF YOSEF MEYSTEL
7112	Walter Reed Post Acute	0.1%	53.5	B	VA	GLOUCESTER	181	GEORGE S MITCHELL JR RVOC TR
7113	Avir at Kingsland	0.1%	53.5	B	TX	Kingsland	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7114	INDEPENDENCE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	53.5	B	OR	INDEPENDENCE	80	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
7115	PLEASANT VALLEY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENT	0.1%	53.5	F	TX	GARLAND	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7116	JOHN SCOTT HOUSE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	MA	BRAINTREE	138	BANE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
7117	Bernice Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	0.1%	53.5	B	LA	BERNICE	126	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
7118	BRONX GARDENS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	NY	BRONX	199	—
7119	Meadow Peak Rehabilitation	0.1%	53.5	B	UT	Taylorsville	75	MISSION HEALTH SERVICES
7120	WILSON'S CREEK NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	53.5	B	MO	SPRINGFIELD	172	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
7121	ASCENSION LIVING CARROLL MANOR	0.1%	53.5	C	DC	WASHINGTON	252	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
7122	MORAN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	D	MD	WESTERNPORT	130	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
7123	LAKE BENNET CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALING	0.1%	53.5	B	FL	OCOEE	120	—
7124	River Bend Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	53.5	F	NC	Asheville	100	—
7125	The Columns Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.1%	53.5	B	LA	Jonesville	140	M MELB OPCO LLC
7126	SWEETWATER HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	TX	SWEETWATER	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7127	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF FAYETTE COUNTY	0.1%	53.5	B	OH	WASHINGTON COURT HOU	92	WHEATEN LLC
7128	WATERS OF ROCKPORT SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	0.1%	53.5	D	IN	ROCKPORT	60	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7129	POCAHONTAS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	D	AR	POCAHONTAS	97	JEJ ASSETS LP
7130	ARNOLD WALTER NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	D	NJ	HAZLET	202	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
7131	EVERGREEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	GA	ROME	100	—
7132	NIGHTINGALE AT ARKADELPHIA	0.1%	53.5	A	AR	ARKADELPHIA	100	SRI NIGHTINGALE LLC
7133	CLARKSVILLE NURSING HOME	0.1%	53.5	D	TX	CLARKSVILLE	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7134	Magnolia Village Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	53.5	A	KY	Bowling Green	60	ENCORE INVESTORS LLC
7135	ROCKY RIDGE MANOR	0.1%	53.5	F	MO	MANSFIELD	65	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
7136	NORTHGATE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	AL	BESSEMER	69	GNH IRRV TR
7137	CARRARA	0.1%	52.1	C	TX	PLANO	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7138	MILLINGTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	TN	MILLINGTON	85	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
7139	Loris Rehab And Nursing Center, LLC	0.1%	52.1	A	SC	Loris	88	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
7140	WESTERN HILLS RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.1%	52.1	A	OH	CINCINNATI	110	CONCEPT REHAB INC
7141	Stonehenge of American Fork	0.1%	52.1	B	UT	American Fork	119	KANE COUNTY HUMAN RESOURCE SPECIAL SERVICE DISTRICT
7142	ROSSMOOR POST ACUTE	0.1%	52.1	A	CA	WALNUT CREEK	155	HCR HEALTHCARE LLC
7143	MADISON MEDICAL RESORT	0.1%	52.1	B	TX	ODESSA	0	JEC GS TRUST
7144	SALUDE - THE ART OF RECOVERY	0.1%	52.1	A	GA	SUWANEE	64	—
7145	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF ROGERSVILLE	0.1%	52.1	D	TN	ROGERSVILLE	150	WHEATEN LLC
7146	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR	0.1%	52.1	A	PA	PITTSBURGH	48	—
7147	La Bella of Cahokia	0.1%	52.1	D	IL	CAHOKIA	150	—
7148	EDMONSON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	KY	Brownsville	74	ENCORE INVESTORS LLC
7149	GULF COAST VILLAGE	0.1%	52.1	D	FL	CAPE CORAL	85	—
7150	Heritage of Emerson	0.1%	52.1	A	NE	Emerson	38	VETTER SENIOR LIVING

Showing 7,101–7,150 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.