Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,551–7,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7551	MONUMENT HEALTH STURGIS CARE CENTER	0.6%	55.3	A	SD	STURGIS	40	MONUMENT HEALTH INC
7552	NORTHWEST HOSP. CTR. SUB. UNIT	0.6%	55.3	—	MD	RANDALLSTOWN	39	—
7553	NAMASTE ALZHEIMER CENTER	0.6%	55.3	—	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	64	—
7554	Eastmont	0.6%	55.3	B	NE	Lincoln	23	—
7555	BARNES-KASSON COUNTY HOSPITAL	0.6%	55.3	A	PA	SUSQUEHANNA	58	WAYNE MEMORIAL HEALTH SYSTEM INC
7556	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - OLATHE	0.6%	55.3	C	KS	OLATHE	128	SANFORD
7557	EDEN VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.6%	55.3	A	IL	GLEN CARBON	107	—
7558	BRITISH HOME, THE	0.6%	55.3	B	IL	BROOKFIELD	72	—
7559	VINCENTIAN DE MARILLAC	0.6%	55.3	F	PA	PITTSBURGH	50	—
7560	Preakness Healthcare Center	0.6%	55.1	B	NJ	WAYNE	406	—
7561	MEADOWVIEW HEALTHCARE AND REHAB	0.6%	55.1	C	AR	HUNTSVILLE	105	—
7562	AVANTE VILLA AT JACKSONVILLE BEACH INC	0.6%	55.1	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE BEACH	165	AG HOLDINGS INC
7563	Oakwood Specialty Care	0.6%	55.1	B	IA	Albia	54	CARE INITIATIVES
7564	Park View Haven Nursing Home	0.6%	55.1	C	NE	Coleridge	34	—
7565	LEAHI HOSPITAL	0.6%	55.1	A	HI	HONOLULU	155	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
7566	PITTSBURGH SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION CTR	0.6%	55.1	D	PA	PITTSBURGH	197	—
7567	ASHTON CREEK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	55.1	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	139	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7568	Overlook Masonic Health Center	0.6%	55.1	B	MA	CHARLTON	181	—
7569	Minnewaska Community Health Services	0.6%	55.1	A	MN	STARBUCK	39	—
7570	JEROLD PHELPS COMM HOSP SNF	0.6%	55.1	A	CA	GARBERVILLE	17	—
7571	PFLUGERVILLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	55.1	B	TX	PFLUGERVILLE	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7572	Good Shepherd Health Center	0.6%	55.1	C	IA	Mason City	180	—
7573	CAMELOT CARE CENTER	0.6%	55.1	A	IN	LOGANSPORT	91	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7574	WALKER METHODIST WESTWOOD RIDGE II	0.6%	55.1	C	MN	WEST SAINT PAUL	37	VIVIE
7575	Ingham County Medical Care Facility	0.6%	55.1	C	MI	Okemos	236	—
7576	HOLIDAY RESORT	0.6%	55.1	C	KS	EMPORIA	96	—
7577	COVENANT HOME	0.6%	55.1	B	LA	NEW ORLEANS	96	—
7578	SULLIVAN COUNTY ADULT CARE CENTER	0.6%	55.1	D	NY	LIBERTY	146	COUNTY OF SULLIVAN
7579	COLORADO VETERANS COMMUNITY LIVING CTR AT HOMELAKE	0.6%	55.1	A	CO	MONTE VISTA	60	STATE OF COLORADO
7580	EMPORIA PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.6%	55.1	A	KS	EMPORIA	60	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7581	LIVING COMMUNITY OF ST JOSEPH	0.6%	55.1	B	MO	SAINT JOSEPH	96	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7582	PHELPS HEALTH	0.6%	55.1	A	MO	ROLLA	20	LIFEPOINT HEALTH INC
7583	MOUNT HOPE NURSING CENTER	0.6%	55.1	D	KS	MOUNT HOPE	40	—
7584	MEADOW VIEW NURSING CENTER	0.6%	55.1	C	PA	BERLIN	150	PREMIER THERAPY LLC
7585	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT SPRENKLE DRIVE	0.6%	55.1	C	PA	YORK	104	—
7586	GREGORY WING OF ST ANDREWS VILLAGE	0.6%	55.1	A	ME	BOOTHBAY HARBOR	42	MAINEHEALTH SERVICES
7587	San Rafael Health and Rehabilitation	0.6%	55.1	D	UT	Ferron	51	TRADITIONS HEALTH CARE INC
7588	MyMichigan Medical Center Sault	0.6%	55.1	A	MI	Sault Ste. Marie	51	—
7589	Lake Winona Manor	0.6%	55.1	B	MN	WINONA	80	WINONA HEALTH SERVICES
7590	CHESHIRE COUNTY HOME	0.6%	55.1	A	NH	WESTMORELAND	150	—
7591	THE AMSTERDAM AT HARBORSIDE	0.6%	54.9	D	NY	PORT WASHINGTON	56	—
7592	MOUNT CARMEL CARE CENTER	0.6%	54.9	A	MA	LENOX	69	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
7593	LIBERTY HEALTH AND WELLNESS	0.6%	54.9	C	MO	LIBERTY	143	—
7594	MARYVILLE LIVING CENTER	0.6%	54.9	F	MO	MARYVILLE	105	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
7595	AMERICAN LUTHERAN HOME-MONDOVI	0.6%	54.9	A	WI	MONDOVI	35	—
7596	TREUTLEN COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	54.9	A	GA	SOPERTON	50	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7597	THE CEDARS	0.6%	54.9	C	KS	MCPHERSON	54	—
7598	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ST MARTIN VILLAGE	0.6%	54.9	B	SD	RAPID CITY	60	SANFORD
7599	SANTA TERESITA MANOR	0.6%	54.9	C	CA	DUARTE	99	—
7600	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - MOTT	0.6%	54.9	D	ND	MOTT	42	—

Showing 7,551–7,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.