Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,501–7,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7501	CASA MORA REHABILITATION AND EXTENDED CARE	0.6%	55.6	F	FL	BRADENTON	240	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7502	ST JOHN LUTHERAN HOME	0.6%	55.5	C	MN	SPRINGFIELD	65	—
7503	CASA DE MODESTO	0.6%	55.5	C	CA	MODESTO	59	—
7504	SPECTRUM HEALTH REHAB & NSG CTRS-KELSEY HOSPITAL	0.6%	55.5	—	MI	LAKEVIEW	31	—
7505	SPRINGS VALLEY MEADOWS	0.6%	55.5	A	IN	FRENCH LICK	74	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7506	Willowbrooke Court SC Ctr at Matthews Glen	0.6%	55.5	A	NC	Matthews	15	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7507	SOLIVITA OF STRATFORD	0.6%	55.5	C	OH	GLENWILLOW	113	—
7508	SUNNYSIDE NURSING CENTER	0.6%	55.5	D	CA	TORRANCE	299	REHAB ALLIANCE
7509	WOODBURY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	55.5	C	MN	WOODBURY	155	SENIOR CARE COMMUNITIES
7510	RENAISSANCE AT THE TERRACES	0.6%	55.5	B	FL	BONITA SPRINGS	40	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7511	Charleston Rehab and Nursing	0.6%	55.5	C	IL	CHARLESTON	139	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
7512	COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER	0.6%	55.5	A	OK	WAKITA	52	—
7513	Villa Marin	0.6%	55.5	A	CA	SAN RAFAEL	31	—
7514	CROWN POINT HEALTH CAMPUS	0.6%	55.5	D	IN	CROWN POINT	145	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7515	SOUTHWIND AT SPEARVILLE	0.6%	55.5	B	KS	SPEARVILLE	28	—
7516	Veterans Home Of California - Chula Vista	0.6%	55.5	A	CA	CHULA VISTA	180	DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
7517	KEARNY COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU	0.6%	55.5	B	KS	LAKIN	40	—
7518	MERCY HOME	0.6%	55.5	—	ME	EAGLE LAKE	40	—
7519	Gold Crest Retirement Center	0.6%	55.5	A	NE	Adams	52	—
7520	ALTENHEIM HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.6%	55.5	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	87	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7521	Canal View - Houghton County	0.6%	55.5	B	MI	Hancock	197	—
7522	ROSEBUD VILLAGE	0.6%	55.5	A	IN	RICHMOND	110	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7523	Providence Place	0.6%	55.5	D	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	190	SENIOR CARE COMMUNITIES
7524	Good Samaritan - Lemars	0.6%	55.5	C	IA	Le Mars	64	SANFORD
7525	Idaho State Veterans Home - Post Falls	0.6%	55.5	D	ID	Post Falls	64	DIVISION OF VETERANS SERVICES
7526	BURNETT MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	55.5	A	WI	GRANTSBURG	50	—
7527	ADDISON POINTE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	55.5	B	IN	CHESTERTON	100	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7528	MOTION PICTURE AND T.V. HOSP D/P SNF	0.6%	55.5	A	CA	WOODLAND HILLS	195	—
7529	OCONEE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	55.5	D	GA	OCONEE	50	—
7530	Parkridge Specialty Care	0.6%	55.5	D	IA	Pleasant Hill	90	CARE INITIATIVES
7531	SOUTH DENNIS HEALTHCARE	0.6%	55.3	D	MA	SOUTH DENNIS	128	—
7532	NORTHFIELD HOSPITAL LONG TERM CARE CENTER	0.6%	55.3	—	MN	NORTHFIELD	40	—
7533	AU WELL CARE HOME, INC	0.6%	55.3	C	IL	MARYVILLE	104	—
7534	VIVO HEALTHCARE TAYLOR	0.6%	55.3	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	—
7535	CHAPMAN VALLEY MANOR	0.6%	55.3	A	KS	CHAPMAN	35	—
7536	Avera Morningside Heights Care Center	0.6%	55.3	D	MN	MARSHALL	76	AVERA HEALTH
7537	MEMORIAL MANOR NURSING HOME	0.6%	55.3	A	GA	BAINBRIDGE	107	—
7538	GOLDEN VIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	55.3	C	NH	MEREDITH	131	—
7539	VIA CHRISTI VILLAGE RIDGE	0.6%	55.3	A	KS	WICHITA	80	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
7540	Good Samaritan Society - Battle Lake	0.6%	55.3	A	MN	BATTLE LAKE	51	SANFORD
7541	GENEVA SHORES NURSING AND REHAB	0.6%	55.3	C	OH	GENEVA	41	—
7542	JOYCE EISENBERG KEEFER MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	0.6%	55.3	A	CA	RESEDA	344	LOS ANGELES JEWISH HOME FOR THE AGING
7543	EL DORADO MANOR NURSING HOME	0.6%	55.3	B	NE	TRENTON	40	—
7544	QUINCY RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.6%	55.3	A	PA	WAYNESBORO	94	PHI
7545	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY LIBERTY	0.6%	55.3	B	OH	GIRARD	79	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY LUTHERAN RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
7546	GALENA STAUSS NURSING HOME	0.6%	55.3	B	IL	GALENA	57	—
7547	Northern Mahaska Specialty Care	0.6%	55.3	C	IA	Oskaloosa	79	CARE INITIATIVES
7548	Carmel Manor	0.6%	55.3	C	KY	Fort Thomas	95	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
7549	FAIRHAVEN CORPORATION	0.6%	55.3	C	WI	WHITEWATER	30	—
7550	MASONIC VILLAGE AT BURLINGTON	0.6%	55.3	C	NJ	BURLINGTON	264	—

Showing 7,501–7,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.