Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,601–7,650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7601	Southridge Specialty Care	0.6%	54.9	C	IA	Marshalltown	82	CARE INITIATIVES
7602	OHIO VETERANS HOME - GEORGETOWN	0.6%	54.9	A	OH	GEORGETOWN	168	STATE OF OHIO OFFICE OF BUDGET AND MANAGEMENT STATE ACCOUNTING
7603	MINNEOLA DISTRICT HOSPITAL LTCU	0.6%	54.9	A	KS	MINNEOLA	26	—
7604	CORPUS CHRISTI NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	54.9	B	TX	CORPUS CHRISTI	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7605	WINDSOR CALALLEN	0.6%	54.9	B	TX	CORPUS CHRISTI	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7606	PERSIMMON RIDGE REHABILITATION CENTRE	0.6%	54.9	B	IN	PORTLAND	100	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7607	DANVILLE CARE CENTER	0.6%	54.9	D	IA	DANVILLE	40	—
7608	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE OF HOMER	0.6%	54.9	B	LA	HOMER	79	—
7609	Plymouth Health Services	0.6%	54.9	B	WI	Plymouth	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
7610	Mission at Community Living Rehabilitation Center	0.6%	54.9	B	UT	Centerfield	46	GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
7611	Brantwood Nh & Retirement Center	0.6%	54.9	B	NC	Oxford	80	—
7612	LIVING CENTER, THE	0.6%	54.9	C	MO	MARSHALL	99	—
7613	FIRST COAST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	54.9	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	100	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7614	SAVOY NURSING & REHAB CTR	0.6%	54.9	B	MA	NEW BEDFORD	39	—
7615	Retirement Ranches Inc.	0.6%	54.9	B	NM	Clovis	104	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
7616	NATIONAL CHURCH RESIDENCES CHILLICOTHE	0.6%	54.9	C	OH	CHILLICOTHE	48	NATIONAL CHURCH RESIDENCES HEALTH CARE
7617	ROSEWOOD HEALTH FACILITY	0.6%	54.9	C	CA	BAKERSFIELD	79	HUMANGOOD
7618	WHITNEY CENTER	0.6%	54.9	B	CT	HAMDEN	59	—
7619	Alice Hyde Medical Center	0.6%	54.9	A	NY	MALONE	135	THE UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT HEALTH NETWORK INC
7620	CONTINUING CARE AT LANTERN HILL	0.6%	54.9	B	NJ	NEW PROVIDENCE	40	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
7621	CRESTWOOD MANOR	0.6%	54.9	A	NJ	WHITING	64	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
7622	Newton Village Health Care Center	0.6%	54.9	B	IA	Newton	24	CASSIA
7623	ALTON MEMORIAL REHAB & THERAPY	0.6%	54.8	C	IL	ALTON	64	BETHESDA HEALTH GROUP INC
7624	ABBEY REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.6%	54.8	F	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	132	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7625	PRESTON RESIDENCE	0.6%	54.8	B	PA	WEST GROVE	38	—
7626	GRAND ROYALE, THE	0.6%	54.8	C	MO	GLADSTONE	45	—
7627	RIVERSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	54.8	A	GA	THOMASTON	73	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7628	WESLACO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	54.8	A	TX	WESLACO	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7629	Madonna Manor	0.6%	54.8	C	KY	Villa Hills	60	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
7630	Soldiers and Sailors Memorial Hospital Extended Ca	0.6%	54.8	A	NY	Penn Yan	152	—
7631	RIDGECREST REHAB & SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.6%	54.8	C	GA	COLUMBUS	84	—
7632	Lantern Park Specialty Care	0.6%	54.8	C	IA	Coralville	90	CARE INITIATIVES
7633	Woodhaven Hall at Williamsburg Landing	0.6%	54.8	A	VA	WILLIAMSBURG	73	—
7634	AVALON SPRINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	0.6%	54.8	C	IN	VALPARAISO	61	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
7635	WILLOWS OF PRESBYTERIAN SENIOR	0.6%	54.8	C	PA	OAKMONT	193	PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE
7636	MOUNT MIGUEL COVENANT VILLAGE	0.6%	54.8	B	CA	SPRING VALLEY	90	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
7637	ADORA MIDTOWN PARK	0.6%	54.8	D	TX	DALLAS	82	—
7638	BAPTIST HOMES OF ADRIAN	0.6%	54.8	A	MO	ADRIAN	38	THE BAPTIST HOME
7639	SEDGWICK COUNTY MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.6%	54.8	A	CO	JULESBURG	32	—
7640	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - MOHALL	0.6%	54.8	C	ND	MOHALL	46	—
7641	Rock County Hospital Long Term Care	0.6%	54.8	A	NE	Bassett	30	—
7642	Good Samaritan Society - Woodland	0.6%	54.8	C	MN	BRAINERD	40	SANFORD
7643	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE - WEST LAFAYETTE	0.6%	54.8	A	IN	WEST LAFAYETTE	72	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7644	LUTHERAN LIFE VILLAGES	0.6%	54.8	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	84	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7645	Millcreek Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.6%	54.8	B	UT	Salt Lake City	61	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
7646	Scottish Rite Park Inc	0.6%	54.8	A	IA	Des Moines	51	—
7647	MEADOWBROOK CARE CENTER	0.6%	54.8	B	TX	VAN ALSTYNE	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7648	MOUNT ST MARY	0.6%	54.8	A	KS	WICHITA	24	CSJ INITIATIVES INC
7649	SCHUYLER COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT	0.5%	54.5	C	MO	QUEEN CITY	60	—
7650	POCOPSON HOME	0.5%	54.5	B	PA	WEST CHESTER	275	—

Showing 7,601–7,650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.