Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,801–7,850

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7801	Complete Care at Manitowoc LLC	0.1%	49.0	B	WI	Manitowoc	150	EEF CAPITAL LLC
7802	MEEKER NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	OK	MEEKER	70	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
7803	TRINIDAD REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	CO	TRINIDAD	119	CENTENNIAL MS TRUST I
7804	TERRACE MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	0.1%	49.0	A	AL	RUSSELLVILLE	63	DT INVESTMENTS LLC
7805	THE WOODLANDS HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	VA	CLIFTON FORGE	60	DJ PETRINE LLC
7806	HERITAGE HALL TAZEWELL	0.1%	49.0	C	VA	TAZEWELL	180	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7807	Applewood Nursing Center, Inc	0.1%	49.0	B	MI	Woodhaven	150	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
7808	NASSAWADOX REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	49.0	A	VA	NASSAWADOX	145	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
7809	Michigan Veterans Home of Chesterfield Township	0.1%	49.0	A	MI	Chesterfield Township	128	STATE OF MICHIGAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
7810	Park Crescent Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	49.0	B	NJ	EAST ORANGE	190	—
7811	PEABODY HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	49.0	B	KS	PEABODY	45	BARRES LLC
7812	SAINT ANTHONY REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	IN	LAFAYETTE	120	MAJOR HOSPITAL
7813	Lindengrove Mukwonago	0.1%	49.0	B	WI	MUKWONAGO	47	ILLUMINUS INC
7814	OAK PARK OASIS	0.1%	49.0	F	IL	OAK PARK	204	POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
7815	CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC	0.1%	49.0	B	IL	VIRGINIA	71	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
7816	BEACH TERRACE CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	NY	LONG BEACH	182	—
7817	MCGIVNEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	IN	CARMEL	37	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7818	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT ST MARYS LLC	0.1%	49.0	C	MO	BLUE SPRINGS	130	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
7819	COURTYARDS COMM LIVING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	MS	FULTON	66	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
7820	THE PINES AT PHILADELPHIA REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CTR	0.1%	49.0	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	49	—
7821	Chatham Hills Subacute Care Center	0.1%	49.0	B	NJ	CHATHAM	108	—
7822	EDGEWATER WOODS	0.1%	49.0	B	IN	ANDERSON	81	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7823	Woods at Lumber City of Journey LLC, The	0.1%	49.0	C	GA	LUMBER CITY	86	PEACH HEALTH GROUP LLC
7824	Green Bay Health Services	0.1%	49.0	B	WI	Green Bay	125	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
7825	REST HAVEN-YORK	0.1%	49.0	A	PA	YORK	159	—
7826	COURTLAND, LLC	0.1%	49.0	A	MD	BALTIMORE	151	CARLYN ALEXANDRA ATTMAN 2005 TRUST
7827	Cedar Pointe Health and Wellness Center	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	Cedar Park	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7828	COURTYARD CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	CA	SAN JOSE	76	—
7829	ASH FLAT HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	AR	ASH FLAT	105	JEJ ASSETS LP
7830	Graham Oaks Care Center	0.1%	49.0	C	TX	Graham	0	COUNTY OF THROCKMORTON
7831	HERITAGE HALL-LEESBURG	0.1%	49.0	A	VA	LEESBURG	164	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7832	Marshall Health Care And Rehab	0.1%	49.0	B	ME	MACHIAS	64	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
7833	PRESTIGE GARDENS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	OH	MARYSVILLE	98	BRAUNSTEIN BEARS 2016 TRUST
7834	LAKE MARIAM HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	FL	WINTER HAVEN	120	—
7835	Avir at Arbor Terrace	0.1%	49.0	C	TX	SAN ANGELO	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7836	BEAUMONT REHAB & SKILLED NURSING CTR - WESTBORO	0.1%	49.0	B	MA	WESTBOROUGH	152	CONTINUING CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
7837	BLUE HILLS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	MA	STOUGHTON	92	ALPHA SNF MA LLC
7838	PECAN TREE REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	TX	GAINESVILLE	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7839	CAREONE AT EAST BRUNSWICK	0.1%	47.1	C	NJ	EAST BRUNSWICK	132	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
7840	Aria of Waukesha	0.1%	47.1	C	WI	WAUKESHA	105	—
7841	Diamondback Healthcare Center	0.1%	47.1	D	AZ	PHOENIX	94	—
7842	FOREST RIDGE HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	0.1%	47.1	A	CO	WOODLAND PARK	80	—
7843	MCDONALD COUNTY LIVING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	D	MO	ANDERSON	96	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
7844	THE PINES AT UTICA CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	47.1	C	NY	UTICA	117	—
7845	WEXFORD HOUSE	0.1%	47.1	B	TN	KINGSPORT	174	BALLAD HEALTH
7846	THE GARDENS AT WINSTED LLC	0.1%	47.1	C	MN	WINSTED	70	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7847	Adept Nursing & Rehab of North Platte	0.1%	47.1	C	NE	North Platte	94	BRASS NE TRUST
7848	LORIEN NSG & REHAB CTR BELAIR	0.1%	47.1	C	MD	BEL AIR	120	—
7849	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF NEWTON	0.1%	47.1	A	MS	NEWTON	60	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
7850	Episcopal Church Home of Minnesota	0.1%	47.1	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	131	EPISCOPAL HOMES OF MINNESOTA

Showing 7,801–7,850 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.