Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,051–8,100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8051	Hilltop Health Care Center	0.1%	47.1	A	MN	WATKINS	50	TF MANAGEMENT LLC
8052	SHIPPENVILLE NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	47.1	B	PA	SHIPPENVILLE	120	ISKEB 2024 TRUST
8053	STROUDSBURG POST ACUTE NURSING & REHABILITATIONLLC	0.1%	47.1	C	PA	STROUDSBURG	174	AZ 22 TR
8054	COTTONWOOD REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	CO	DURANGO	40	CENTENNIAL MS TRUST I
8055	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY DE SMET	0.1%	47.1	C	SD	DE SMET	46	SANFORD
8056	MEDICANA NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	LAKE WORTH	116	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8057	AMBERWOOD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	47.1	B	AR	BENTON	101	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
8058	HERITAGE HOUSE REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	IN	CONNERSVILLE	98	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
8059	ENVIVE OF BERNE	0.1%	47.1	A	IN	BERNE	80	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8060	O'NEILL HEALTHCARE NORTH RIDGEVILLE	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	NORTH RIDGEVILLE	150	O NEILL MANAGEMENT LLC
8061	BROWNFIELD REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	TX	BROWNFIELD	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8062	ADAMS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	AL	ALEXANDER CITY	88	M MELB OPCO LLC
8063	CENTRAL QUEENS REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	NY	MASPETH	200	—
8064	HAINES CITY REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	HAINES CITY	120	QUALITY REHAB PARTNERS LLC
8065	Brio of Johnston, LLC	0.1%	47.1	B	IA	Johnston	36	WESLEYLIFE
8066	SLIGO CREEK HEALTHCARE	0.1%	47.1	C	MD	TAKOMA PARK	102	—
8067	MONROE CITY MANOR CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	MO	MONROE CITY	60	—
8068	St Joseph Villa	0.1%	47.1	B	UT	Salt Lake City	221	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
8069	GAINESVILLE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	VA	GAINESVILLE	120	DJ PETRINE LLC
8070	DAYBREAK NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	MO	SIKESTON	70	PARADIGM REHAB SERVICES LLC
8071	WILLOWDALE VILLAGE	0.1%	47.1	B	IN	DALE	50	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
8072	LEGACY AT COLLEGE HILL	0.1%	47.1	B	KS	WICHITA	75	CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
8073	GRANBY HOUSE	0.1%	47.1	A	MO	GRANBY	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
8074	BRIARFIELD MANOR	0.1%	47.1	C	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	92	EDM MANAGEMENT INC
8075	GARDEN GATE HEALTH CARE FACILITY	0.1%	47.1	C	NY	CHEEKTOWAGA	184	VESTRA SPV1 LLC
8076	Signature Healthcare of Monroe County Rehab and We	0.1%	47.1	C	KY	Tompkinsville	104	WHEATEN LLC
8077	COWETA CARE & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	OK	COWETA	100	JFB OK TRUST
8078	STRATFORD COURT OF BOCA RATON	0.1%	47.1	B	FL	BOCA RATON	60	WELLTOWER INC
8079	MARIES MANOR	0.1%	47.1	C	MO	VIENNA	98	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8080	VILLAGE MANOR OF CASCADIA	0.1%	47.1	A	OR	WOOD VILLAGE	60	—
8081	CHAFFEE NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	MO	CHAFFEE	71	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
8082	Prairie Vista Village	0.1%	47.1	A	IA	Altoona	46	WSG LLC
8083	THE WATERS OF WINCHESTER, LLC	0.1%	47.1	D	TN	WINCHESTER	132	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
8084	RICHMOND CTR FOR REHAB AND SPECIALTY HEALTHCARE	0.1%	47.1	B	NY	STATEN ISLAND	372	—
8085	Serenity Spring Senior Living at Scandia Village	0.1%	47.1	C	WI	Sister Bay	50	CONTINUUM HEALTHCARE I INC
8086	COTTAGES AT ROCKMART, THE	0.1%	47.1	C	GA	ROCKMART	116	—
8087	GOODWATER HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	AL	GOODWATER	72	PRIME MANAGEMENT LLC
8088	HARMONY HILLS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	PA	WEXFORD	55	GEM FAMILY 2020 NGCG NEVADA TRUST
8089	Glenwood Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	47.1	B	GA	GLENWOOD	62	STATESBORO HOLDCO LLC
8090	CREEKSIDE HEALTH AND REHAB OF CASCADIA	0.1%	47.1	B	OR	EUGENE	106	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
8091	LAS BRISAS REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS CENTER	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	IRVING	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8092	AVANTE AT ORLANDO INC	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	ORLANDO	118	AG HOLDINGS INC
8093	CareOne At Hanover Township	0.1%	47.1	F	NJ	WHIPPANY	94	CARE ONE LLC
8094	Yuma Nursing Center	0.1%	47.1	A	AZ	YUMA	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
8095	Majestic Care of Columbus LLC	0.1%	47.1	A	OH	COLUMBUS	120	MAJESTIC MANAGEMENT LLC
8096	WOODLAKE NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	CLUTE	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8097	BARON HOUSE OF HUEYTOWN	0.1%	47.1	A	AL	HUEYTOWN	50	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
8098	ST JOHNS PLACE OF ARKANSAS, LLC	0.1%	47.1	C	AR	FORDYCE	100	JEJ ASSETS LP
8099	Arbor Lake Nursing & Rehabilitation, LLC	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	Fort Worth	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8100	WATERS OF MCKENZIE A REHABILITATION & NURSING CTR	0.1%	47.1	B	TN	MC KENZIE	66	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP

Showing 8,051–8,100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.