Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,201–8,250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8201	CIVITA CARE CENTER AT SALMON BROOK	0.1%	44.6	D	CT	GLASTONBURY	130	MIRLIS CHILDREN TRUST
8202	PANA HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	IL	PANA	128	LIGHT MAN LLC
8203	ABINGTON MANOR	0.1%	44.6	C	PA	Clarks Summit	119	—
8204	NORTERRE	0.1%	44.6	B	MO	LIBERTY	60	TUTERA INVESTMENTS LLC
8205	PALM GARDEN OF WEST PALM BEACH	0.1%	44.6	B	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	176	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
8206	Greenhaven Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	C	NC	Greensboro	120	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
8207	WEST VOLUSIA HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	FL	DELTONA	120	FDZ CONSULTING LLC
8208	Benedictine Health Center	0.1%	44.6	B	MN	DULUTH	96	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
8209	MERIDIAN CARE OF ALICE	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	ALICE	0	—
8210	Grayson Nursing and Rehab Center	0.1%	44.6	A	KY	Leitchfield	72	ENCORE INVESTORS 2 LLC
8211	Regency at Fremont	0.1%	44.6	C	MI	Fremont	129	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
8212	REGENCY OMAK	0.1%	44.6	B	WA	OMAK	56	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
8213	DELAWARE COURT HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	OH	DELAWARE	75	LEVERING MANAGEMENT INC
8214	Haven of Yuma	0.1%	44.6	B	AZ	YUMA	120	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
8215	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF ERIN	0.1%	44.6	D	TN	ERIN	164	WHEATEN LLC
8216	HEWITT NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	F	TX	HEWITT	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8217	SHORES NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	44.6	F	FL	PORT SAINT JOE	120	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
8218	SWAN HEALTH AT OVERLAND PARK	0.1%	44.6	A	KS	OVERLAND PARK	44	—
8219	ST CLAIR NURSING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	MO	SAINT CLAIR	79	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
8220	PARKSIDE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB AT ELLIJAY	0.1%	44.6	B	GA	ELLIJAY	110	—
8221	THE LAURELS OF MILFORD	0.1%	44.6	B	OH	MILFORD	136	LAUREL HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS INC
8222	Franciscan Villa	0.1%	44.6	B	OK	Broken Arrow	110	DIAKONOS GROUP LLC
8223	Jones Harrison Residence	0.1%	44.6	B	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	120	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
8224	Citrus Nursing Center	0.1%	44.6	C	CA	Fontana	99	—
8225	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - BROOKVIEW CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	136	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
8226	White Oak of Waxhaw	0.1%	44.6	A	NC	Waxhaw	100	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
8227	CLIVEDEN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	180	PA OPS HOLDINGS LLC
8228	PALM GARDEN OF PORT SAINT LUCIE	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	PORT SAINT LUCIE	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
8229	Accura Healthcare of Pleasantville, LLC	0.1%	44.6	D	IA	Pleasantville	46	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8230	SKYLINE RIDGE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	CO	CANON CITY	85	SNH TRS INC
8231	THE LODGE AT LANE	0.1%	44.6	A	LA	ZACHARY	39	CHAMPION MANAGEMENT LLC
8232	The Orchards at Redford	0.1%	44.6	B	MI	Redford	88	—
8233	EAST NECK NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	NY	WEST BABYLON	300	—
8234	The Orchards at Niles	0.1%	44.6	C	MI	Niles	84	—
8235	VILLA MARIA NURSING AND REHABILITATION COMMUNITY	0.1%	44.6	C	CT	PLAINFIELD	62	WACHUSETT VENTURES LLC
8236	TWIN OAKS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	JACKSONVILLE	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
8237	SEA BREEZE REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	FL	VERO BEACH	110	CITADEL CARE GROUP LLC
8238	VALLEY OF THE MOON POST ACUTE	0.1%	44.6	B	CA	SONOMA	27	—
8239	SMITH CENTER HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	44.6	C	KS	SMITH CENTER	45	BARRES LLC
8240	KENDALLVILLE MANOR	0.1%	44.6	A	IN	KENDALLVILLE	60	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8241	Biltmore Haven Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	44.6	C	NC	Arden	100	SNF MGR LLC
8242	LAUREL SQUARE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	87	NATIONWIDE HEALTHCARE SERVICES
8243	Oak Hollow of Georgetown Rehabilitation Center LLC	0.1%	44.6	B	SC	Georgetown	84	REGIONAL HEALTH PROPERTIES INC
8244	CROSS CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	CROSS CITY	60	LBS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
8245	Montello Manor	0.1%	44.6	B	ME	LEWISTON	37	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
8246	WILDEWOOD SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.1%	44.6	B	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	107	BRIDGES ESOP INC
8247	OAK HAVEN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	FL	AUBURNDALE	120	—
8248	Marian Regional Medical Center D/P SNF	0.1%	44.6	A	CA	Santa Maria	95	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
8249	THE CENTER AT TUCSON	0.1%	44.6	A	AZ	TUCSON	96	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
8250	CITADEL CARE CENTER-KANKAKEE	0.1%	44.6	B	IL	KANKAKEE	107	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST

Showing 8,201–8,250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.