Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,601–8,650

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8601	Crown Haven Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	41.8	B	NC	Charlotte	120	SNF MGR LLC
8602	AVAMERE COURT AT KEIZER	0.1%	41.8	B	OR	KEIZER	69	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
8603	SUNSET HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	MO	UNION	120	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
8604	NHC HEALTHCARE, ST CHARLES	0.1%	41.8	C	MO	SAINT CHARLES	120	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
8605	TWIN LAKES EXTENDED CARE	0.1%	41.8	C	IL	PARIS	56	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
8606	DUMONT CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE	0.1%	41.8	A	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	196	—
8607	Southern Oaks Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	C	LA	Shreveport	61	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
8608	Village Green Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	41.8	B	NC	Fayetteville	170	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
8609	HAWTHORNE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING OF	0.1%	41.8	C	FL	OCALA	120	HAWTHORNE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8610	The Estates at Linden LLC	0.1%	41.8	B	MN	STILLWATER	51	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
8611	HEATHER KNOLL RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.1%	41.8	A	OH	TALLMADGE	115	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
8612	BRENTWOOD PLACE ONE	0.1%	41.8	B	TX	DALLAS	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8613	Cherry Hill for Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	41.8	B	MI	Westland	127	—
8614	Mission Point Nursing & Physical Rehabilitation Ce	0.1%	41.8	F	MI	Detroit	129	MISSION POINT MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8615	Vibra Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	D	PA	MECHANICSBURG	48	—
8616	HAVEN OF SHOW LOW	0.1%	41.8	F	AZ	SHOW LOW	58	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
8617	SCHUYLKILL CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	PA	POTTSVILLE	190	—
8618	SHELBY RIDGE NURSING HOME	0.1%	41.8	A	AL	ALABASTER	131	SCHMIDT WALLACE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
8619	ROCK CREEK OF OTTAWA	0.1%	41.8	B	KS	OTTAWA	75	—
8620	CIVIC CENTER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.1%	41.8	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	95	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
8621	CARLINVILLE REHAB & HCC	0.1%	41.8	D	IL	CARLINVILLE	98	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
8622	VIBRA HOSPITAL OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA D/P SNF	0.1%	41.8	B	CA	REDDING	32	—
8623	ROCK RIVER HEALTH CARE	0.1%	41.8	F	IL	ROCKFORD	130	—
8624	BREEZY HILLS REHAB AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	D	FL	LAKELAND	120	SUNSHINE SNF GROUP LLC
8625	Brownsville Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	C	TX	Brownsville	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
8626	DECATUR WELLNESS AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	A	TN	DECATUR	88	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
8627	DIAMOND RIDGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	A	CA	PITTSBURG	120	—
8628	Regency at Canton	0.1%	41.8	B	MI	Canton	141	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
8629	RIDGEWOOD HEALTH CAMPUS	0.1%	41.8	B	IN	LAWRENCEBURG	71	HARRISON COUNTY HOSPITAL
8630	CAMDEN POSTACUTE CARE, INC	0.1%	41.8	B	CA	CAMPBELL	60	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
8631	WALDRON REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	IN	WALDRON	71	MAJOR HOSPITAL
8632	ENVIVE OF HARTFORD CITY	0.1%	41.8	A	IN	HARTFORD CITY	78	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8633	The Lodge at Rocky Mount Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	41.8	C	NC	Rocky Mount	100	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
8634	OREGON CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	MO	OREGON	60	DKDP MISSOURI LLC
8635	PruittHealth-Rockingham	0.1%	41.8	B	NC	Rockingham	120	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
8636	NORTHWAY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.1%	41.8	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	113	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
8637	BEECHER MANOR NRSG & REHAB CTR	0.1%	41.8	C	IL	BEECHER	128	B & Z GRANDCHILDREN ACCUMULATION TRUST
8638	AVALON CARE CENTER - HONOLULU, LLC	0.1%	41.8	A	HI	HONOLULU	108	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
8639	Montello Care Center	0.1%	41.8	D	WI	Montello	50	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
8640	WATERFRONT REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	NJ	RARITAN	138	MALT FAMILY TRUST
8641	HUMPHREYS CO NURSING CENTER	0.1%	41.8	A	MS	BELZONI	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
8642	THE HAVEN OF ST. ELMO	0.1%	41.8	C	IL	ST ELMO	60	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
8643	INVERNESS REHAB	0.1%	41.8	C	IL	INVERNESS	142	—
8644	GOLDEN SAN ANDREAS CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	CA	SAN ANDREAS	99	VERITAS HEALTH SOLUTIONS LLC
8645	CASEY REHAB AND NURSING	0.1%	41.8	B	IL	CASEY	69	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
8646	PEAKS CARE CENTER, THE	0.1%	41.8	B	CO	LONGMONT	84	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
8647	HILLSPRING HEALTH CARE & REHAB	0.1%	41.8	B	OH	SPRINGBORO	140	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
8648	RIVER OAKS CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	MO	STEELE	90	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
8649	PARK ROSE CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	D	WA	TACOMA	139	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
8650	TREND HEALTH & REHAB OF CARTHAGE LLC	0.1%	41.8	A	MS	CARTHAGE	83	—

Showing 8,601–8,650 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.