Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,901–8,950

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8901	Living Meadows At Luther - Madelia	0.3%	47.3	A	MN	MADELIA	40	—
8902	WAVENY CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.3	A	CT	NEW CANAAN	106	—
8903	WITHAM EXTENDED CARE	0.3%	47.3	—	IN	LEBANON	18	—
8904	Schoolcraft Medical Care Facility	0.3%	47.3	C	MI	Manistique	85	—
8905	Wisner Care Center	0.3%	47.3	A	NE	Wisner	38	—
8906	Paul E Patton Eastern KY Veterans Center	0.3%	47.3	B	KY	Hazard	120	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
8907	Weston County Health Services	0.3%	47.3	B	WY	Newcastle	58	WESTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8908	MAPLE KNOLL VILLAGE	0.3%	47.3	A	OH	CINCINNATI	80	BHI RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
8909	DR ARTHUR CLIFTON MCKINLEY CTR	0.3%	47.3	B	PA	BROOKVILLE	90	PENN HIGHLANDS HEALTHCARE INC
8910	FORT SANDERS TCU	0.3%	47.3	B	TN	KNOXVILLE	24	COVENANT HEALTH
8911	The Estates at Excelsior LLC	0.3%	47.3	D	MN	EXCELSIOR	45	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
8912	The Palms Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.3%	47.3	C	TX	Corpus Christi	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8913	MOUNT SAN ANTONIO GARDENS	0.3%	47.3	A	CA	POMONA	64	—
8914	Corewell Health Reed City Hospital Rehabilitation	0.3%	47.3	A	MI	Reed City	39	COREWELL HEALTH
8915	Wakonda Heritage Manor	0.3%	47.3	B	SD	WAKONDA	38	—
8916	Maranatha Care Center	0.3%	47.3	A	MN	BROOKLYN CENTER	97	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8917	ST AUGUSTINE HOME FOR THE AGED	0.3%	46.8	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	23	—
8918	LEFA SERAN SNF	0.3%	46.8	A	NV	HAWTHORNE	24	—
8919	The Manor, Inc.	0.3%	46.8	B	VT	Morrisville	72	—
8920	Normandie Ridge	0.3%	46.8	B	PA	YORK	64	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
8921	LA BAHIA NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	46.8	C	TX	GOLIAD	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
8922	JEANNE JUGAN CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	MO	KANSAS CITY	52	—
8923	AVANTARA MILBANK	0.3%	46.8	F	SD	MILBANK	55	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
8924	OWENSBORO HEALTH MUHLENBERG COMMUNITY HOSPITAL LTC	0.3%	46.8	A	KY	GREENVILLE	45	OWENSBORO HEALTH INC
8925	Eastview Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	46.8	C	WI	Antigo	118	CHAMPION CARE LLC
8926	RECOVERY INN, AN EDURO HEALTHCARE COMMUNITY (THE)	0.3%	46.8	D	WI	APPLETON	12	—
8927	Ramsey Village	0.3%	46.8	B	IA	Des Moines	78	—
8928	Carl T Curtis Health Education Center Nursing Home	0.3%	46.8	A	NE	Macy	25	—
8929	ALLIED SERVICES SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	PA	SCRANTON	327	ALLIED SERVICES FOUNDATION
8930	CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY HOME OF OSCEOLA, INC	0.3%	46.8	B	WI	OSCEOLA	40	CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY HOMES AND SERVICES INC
8931	DANIEL K AKAKA STATE VETERANS HOME	0.3%	46.8	—	HI	KAPOLEI	0	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
8932	Jones Harrison Residence	0.3%	46.8	B	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	120	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
8933	Community Memorial Health Center	0.3%	46.8	C	NE	Burwell	64	—
8934	CHEYENNE MEDICAL LODGE	0.3%	46.8	C	TX	MESQUITE	0	JEC GS TRUST
8935	PROVIDENCE VALDEZ MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	AK	VALDEZ	10	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
8936	Bryan Health and Rehab	0.3%	46.8	A	NC	Scotland Neck	60	—
8937	Gil-Mor Manor	0.3%	46.8	A	MN	MORGAN	35	—
8938	LUTHERAN COMMUNITY AT TELFORD	0.3%	46.8	A	PA	TELFORD	75	GRACE INSPIRED MINISTRIES
8939	FAIR HAVENS SENIOR LIVING	0.3%	46.8	D	IL	DECATUR	154	ATRU LLC
8940	COURTYARD GARDENS NURSING AND REHAB CTR	0.3%	46.8	A	PA	MIDDLETOWN	102	—
8941	COLUMBIA LUTHERAN HOME	0.3%	46.8	B	WA	SEATTLE	116	—
8942	Good Neighbor Home	0.3%	46.8	C	IA	Manchester	112	—
8943	EAMC LANIER NURSING HOME	0.3%	46.8	C	AL	VALLEY	103	—
8944	SUITES AT CLERMONT PARK CARE CENTER, THE	0.3%	46.8	A	CO	DENVER	63	CHRISTIAN LIVING NEIGHBORHOODS
8945	REBEKAH REHAB AND EXTENDED CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	NY	BRONX	213	—
8946	ST CAMILLUS RESIDENTIAL HEALTH CARE FACILITY	0.3%	46.8	B	NY	SYRACUSE	284	—
8947	Brookestone Meadows Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.3%	46.8	A	NE	Elkhorn	140	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8948	SIERRA VIEW HOMES	0.3%	46.8	C	CA	REEDLEY	59	—
8949	CHILDRENS SPECIALIZED HOSPITAL TOMS RIVER	0.3%	46.8	A	NJ	TOMS RIVER	26	—
8950	MANSFIELD SNF, LLC, DBA ISLE AT WATERCREST-MANSF	0.3%	46.8	—	TX	MANSFIELD	—	INTEGRATED SENIOR LIVING LLC

Showing 8,901–8,950 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.