Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,851–8,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8851	DR GUY GORMAN SR CARE HOME	0.3%	47.3	B	AZ	CHINLE	80	—
8852	Pocotaligo River Health And Rehab	0.3%	47.3	B	SC	Manning	88	CLARENDON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8853	BELLBROOK HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	47.3	B	OH	BELLBROOK	65	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
8854	Essentia Health Northern Pines Medical Center	0.3%	47.3	A	MN	AURORA	33	ESSENTIA HEALTH
8855	Lutheran Home Of Southbury Inc	0.3%	47.3	B	CT	SOUTHBURY	120	ASCENTRIA CARE ALLIANCE INC
8856	XENIA HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	47.3	B	OH	XENIA	51	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
8857	Denali Center	0.3%	47.3	C	AK	FAIRBANKS	71	FOUNDATION HEALTH LLC
8858	MONTICELLO HOUSE	0.3%	47.3	A	PA	MEDIA	86	—
8859	CUMBERNAULD VILLAGE	0.3%	47.3	B	KS	WINFIELD	42	—
8860	RIVERVIEW NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	47.3	A	MS	GREENWOOD	91	—
8861	Redeemer Health Care Center	0.3%	47.3	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	119	CASSIA
8862	Haven Homes Of Maple Plain	0.3%	47.3	A	MN	MAPLE PLAIN	64	CASSIA
8863	PANORAMA CITY CONV & REHAB CTR	0.3%	47.3	B	WA	LACEY	155	—
8864	Park View Health Care Center	0.3%	47.3	A	MN	BUFFALO	92	CASSIA
8865	RESTHAVE HOME-WHITESIDE COUNTY	0.3%	47.3	A	IL	MORRISON	70	—
8866	SMP HEALTH - ST RAPHAEL	0.3%	47.3	A	ND	VALLEY CITY	170	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION HEALTH SYSTEM
8867	ANTLERS MANOR	0.3%	47.3	B	OK	ANTLERS	133	BGM ESTATE LLC
8868	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES AT BREEZE PARK	0.3%	47.3	B	MO	SAINT CHARLES	50	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
8869	United Presbyterian Home	0.3%	47.3	A	IA	Washington	59	—
8870	MENNONITE MEMORIAL HOME	0.3%	47.3	B	OH	BLUFFTON	60	BRETHREN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY
8871	REGENCY PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	47.3	A	GA	DALTON	100	HLTC INC
8872	SHANNONDALE OF MARYVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.3	A	TN	MARYVILLE	44	—
8873	Medilodge of Sault Ste. Marie	0.3%	47.3	D	MI	Sault Ste. Marie	106	B&Y TRUST
8874	EAST LONGMEADOW SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.3%	47.3	B	MA	EAST LONGMEADOW	131	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
8875	AUGUSTA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	47.3	A	WI	AUGUSTA	50	—
8876	Lapeer County Medical Care Facility	0.3%	47.3	B	MI	Lapeer	202	—
8877	Presbyterian Homes Of Arden Hills	0.3%	47.3	A	MN	ARDEN HILLS	128	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8878	Maine Veterans Home - So Paris	0.3%	47.3	A	ME	SOUTH PARIS	62	MAINE VETERANS HOME
8879	KNOLLS OF OXFORD	0.3%	47.3	A	OH	OXFORD	50	BHI RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
8880	HERITAGE PARK REHAB & SKILLED NURSING	0.3%	47.3	B	NY	JAMESTOWN	146	—
8881	Southeast Iowa Regional Medical - Klein Center	0.3%	47.3	B	IA	West Burlington	160	GREAT RIVER HEALTH SYSTEM INC
8882	SHANDS JACKSONVILLE MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	47.3	A	FL	JACKSONVILLE	56	SHANDS JACKSONVILLE HEALTHCARE INC
8883	BALDWIN GARDENS NURSING CENTER	0.3%	47.3	A	CA	TEMPLE CITY	59	HELENE MAYER 2007 IRREVOCABLE EXEMPT TRUST FBO ABRAHAM MAYER DATED DEC
8884	Ebenezer Integrated Care & Rehab	0.3%	47.3	B	MN	SAINT PAUL	62	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
8885	LAFAYETTE MANOR, INC	0.3%	47.3	B	PA	UNIONTOWN	98	—
8886	ANDERSON COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU	0.3%	47.3	B	KS	GARNETT	36	—
8887	Glen Arden Inc	0.3%	47.3	C	NY	GOSHEN	40	—
8888	The Episcopal Church Home	0.3%	47.3	B	KY	Louisville	26	EPISCOPAL RETIREMENT HOMES INC
8889	Willowdale Health Services	0.3%	47.3	A	WI	New Holstein	49	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
8890	INTERLUDE RESTORATIVE SUITES	0.3%	47.3	D	MN	FRIDLEY	50	—
8891	VILLA MARIA WEST SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.3%	47.3	B	FL	HIALEAH GARDENS	27	ARCHDIOCESE OF MIAMI INC
8892	CANFIELD HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	47.3	B	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	90	RRW LLC
8893	VALLEY HI NURSING HOME	0.3%	47.3	B	IL	WOODSTOCK	128	—
8894	MT MACRINA MANOR	0.3%	47.3	C	PA	UNIONTOWN	124	—
8895	HILLVIEW HEALTH CARE CTR	0.3%	47.3	A	WI	LA CROSSE	37	COUNTY OF LA CROSSE
8896	LEISURE HOMESTEAD AT STAFFORD	0.3%	47.3	A	KS	STAFFORD	37	—
8897	PROVIDENCE LITTLE COMP OF MARY SUBACUTE CARE CTR	0.3%	47.3	A	CA	SAN PEDRO	125	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
8898	STANTON COUNTY HEALTH CARE FACILITY LTCU	0.3%	47.3	A	KS	JOHNSON	25	—
8899	Grand Traverse Pavilions	0.3%	47.3	C	MI	Traverse City	240	—
8900	CANTON CHRISTIAN HOME	0.3%	47.3	C	OH	CANTON	57	—

Showing 8,851–8,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.